Tuesday's Missed Tornado Warning in Kansas
Greenwood County tornado damage, KWCH TV News It is not known which tornado produced this damage. |
We had a completely unwarned tornado in the Kansas Flint Hills region Tuesday morning but I don't fault the NWS for not anticipating it.
They found the tornado path's (tornado #2, yellow path) when looking for a tornado that occurred earlier that morning in Greenwood County. The tornado in question was an EF-2, which is rated "strong" intensity.
As to why I don't fault the NWS, let's take a look at the radar data.
The tornado touched down at 7:34am. The radar image immediately below was one minute before the start of the tornado and there is nothing remotely tornadic in the immediate area (circle).
The tornado has been on the ground for one minute at this point. Still, nothing. There is weak rotation to the SSW of the location but nothing that would say, "tornado."
At 7:37am, the tornado is still on the ground. I've removed the circle -- the location of the tornado -- and put arrowing showing the weak rotation. This rotation is so weak, I would not think "tornado" from looking at it.
Baring, MO Tornado Damage. Weather.com |
BNSF Railway goes the extra mile for safety as it has an excellent commercial weather company issuing track-specific warnings. But, no one can issue consistently high-quality tornado or thunderstorm-generated wind warnings when the radar is 130+ miles away.
If the United States had a Natural Disaster Review Board, I have no doubt that this would be toward the top of its recommendations for the National Weather Service. When the original radar network was designed (late-1980's), we thought that seeing the middle of thunderstorms (which is what can be seen at long distances due to the earth's curvature) was adequate to alert meteorologists to the possibility of tornadoes. We now know that it is important to see lower in the storm and the radar network needs to be adjusted accordingly.
A private sector company, Climavision, is installing a network of radars and is in the process of installing one in Humbolt, Kansas. That is ~30 miles from the path of Tuesday's tornado. I don't know much about their radars, but I am hoping they will prove useful in prevent these surprise tornadoes.
NWS or private -- we need more radars!
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