[Updated, 6:55am Thursday] What Actually Happened?

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The forecast was of excellent quality. 
Hail up to baseball-sized fell. Congratulations, NWS SPC. 


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NWS SPC just released this forecast valid until midnight. 
The red outline is where hail, perhaps very large, is most likely. 

Radar shows what will likely be the hailstorms forming near Manhattan.  9:27pm

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The NWS SPC is forecasting large hail in Kansas tonight. Forecast valid till 7am.

The is a significant risk of hail 1" in diameter in yellow. Where you see hatching, there is a risk of giant hail, 2" in diameter or larger. 

With the benefit of the evening data from weather balloons, the HRRR model has changed its forecast. No thunderstorms in southern Kansas this evening. 

Midnight:

4am Thursday:


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