Tornado Risk Monday - Heads Up!

Long-time readers know that I worry about tornadoes on holidays, especially school holidays. People are out of their normal routines and may not hear watches and warnings with the same likelihood as they generally would.

Many parochial schools have the day off Monday, the day after Easter. 

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecast tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the areas outlined below. 

A long range severe thunderstorm and forecasting tool from Colorado State University, which has demonstrated skill, is forecasting even higher probabilities Monday and Monday night.

The hatched area is where giant hail and/or strong tornadoes are forecasted to occur. On a Day 4 severe weather outlook, a probability of 40% (purple) is quite high. 

Of course, this can shift a bit between now and Monday, so it will be important to monitor the weather from the Great Plains into the Midwest and South. I will post updates each day.