UPDATED 11:05 pm Hurricane Lee Update

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Here is the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast for the path of the eye of Hurricane Lee out 5 days. 
M = major hurricane.  H = hurricane.  (S) = tropical storm center that isn't a tropical storm*. 

Addition at 8:30am Tuesday. This is the composite probability forecast of the location of the eye beyond NHC's forecast. It is from all of the models' ensemble forecast. Thanks to Tomer Berg.

I want to give my readers some info on what to expect beyond the NHC forecast. 
Map of the possible location of 50+ mph winds.
Within this area will be a zone of 60 mph winds with gusts to 75 mph.
It is too soon to know exactly where the strongest winds will be.

This will not be a Cat 5 wind speed hurricane or anything like it when it moves through New England and/or the Canadian Maritimes. It will be like 2012's Hurricane Sandy where the wind field will be spread out over a wide geographic area. The maximum category will be 2, it will more likely be a 1. However, even if it is a 1, that is sufficient to cause power outages over a vast area.

Below is the earliest likely arrival of 40 mph or stronger winds:

What I recommend at this point if you live in the Maritimes or in New England coastal areas:
  • Get plenty of cash. ATM's and credit card readers do not work without electricity. 
  • If you have a gasoline-powered car, keep it filled with fuel. 
  • In Nor'easters, the worst winds usually come from the north through east. In this storm, the worst winds will come from south through southeast. There will also be much more of a storm surge and corresponding flooding. There will be 10-25 feet waves near shore on top of the storm surge. Please plan accordingly as they can be highly destructive.
  • Put together a "go kit" in case you have to evacuate. 
Remember, you can always re-deposit the money if the storm does not affect land and you'll eventually use the fuel. 

The next update will be in the early afternoon Tuesday.


*Note the white (S) meaning tropical storm force winds but not "technically" a tropical storm. Because of the quirks of U.S. homeowners' insurance, it is quite possible NWS/NOAA will try to pull another "superstorm" switch, regardless of whether it is meteorologically justified. Why? Because if it is a hurricane, some homeowners' insurance will not cover any damage. So, they may try the nonsense they did with Sandy where they...
  • Call it a "superstorm" (wink, wink),
  • Insurance covers the damage,
  • President Biden tries to get Congress to pass a law that will reimburse the insurance companies out of our tax dollars (as Obama did with Sandy),
  • The people of Kansas, Oregon and New Mexico, as well as other states thousands of miles from the damage area, end up paying for it. 
The whole hurricane/homeowners mess needs to be reformed but that is a topic for another day. 

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