What Really Happened to Cause the Horrific Maui Wildfire

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The point of this nonsense is to proactively deflect
criticism of state officials. Report from CNN.
The conditions causing the Lahaina Fire, which has taken 99 precious lives, to be so intense were not caused by global warming nor were they caused by Hurricane Dora, nor were they caused by invasive grasses. 

The cause has been identified as a mountain wave somewhat similar to the mountain wave involved in the 2022 Marshall Fire in the Boulder, Colorado area. Initial high winds blew down a power line which sparked a fire. Per the New York Times' graphic below, Maui fire officials, perhaps prematurely, declared the fire was "contained."

New York Times
Then, the mountain wave helped create extreme winds and, for Hawaii, extremely low humidity -- perfect conditions for the fire to spread. Those winds may not have been detected as they should have been because there is no National Weather Service (NWS) weather observing station in west Maui!

The analysis identifying the mountain wave as the culprit was done by Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington and it is quite compelling. You can read it here. If you wish, you can compare the meteorology surrounding the Marshall Fire, here. They are very similar. 

I am pleased to report that the NWS had both high wind and wildfire ("red flag") warnings in effect. If that were not the case, the terrible death toll (now 99) may have been even worse. Per its web site, the Lahaina-area warning sirens should have been sounded as it is an "all-hazard" system:
The all-hazard siren system can be used for a variety of both natural and human-caused events; including tsunamis, hurricanes, dam breaches, flooding, wildfires, volcanic eruptions, terrorist threats, hazardous material incidents, and more.

However, it was possible officials didn't put sufficient weight on the NWS's warnings. [Addition] Of course, the CBS News item may have played a role.

While I would be far more comfortable with a National Disaster Review Board behind these recommendations, here is what I suggest be done immediately based on what we know at this point:
  • Automated weather stations should be installed in Lahaina and throughout west Maui. About ten are needed in meteorologically important areas. 
  • As other states are doing, the State of Hawaii should create positions for 1 or 2 staff meteorologists to coordinate with state officials in high risk situations. 
  • Sirens should be sounded in the area where fires break out if the NWS has either high wind warnings or red flag (wildfire) warnings in effect. 
  • The sirens, if they are not already, should be zoned to prevent unnecessary false alarms. 
  • The National Weather Service should rename "red flag warnings" to "wildfire warnings."
  • The NWS should never have discontinued its profiler network. A new state-of-the-art profiler network should be installed in all 50 states and in several territories. 
  • [Addition] Emergency managers should be professionals in the field. No more patronage EM's. 

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