Tornado Warning Miss #3 This Weekend

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Here is a news story about this tornado warning miss. In my opinion, this was an easy warning; nothing complex about it.

--- Original Posting ---

I want to give credit where great it due, meteorologist Matthew Cappucci was the first to observe the a tornado was on the ground 14 minutes before a tornado warning was issued. 
As he correctly noted, this was the third (actually 4th) time this has happened just this weekend. 

To list them:
  • Ray County, MO  Friday evening. 
  • Baring MO, Friday night
  • Marceline, IL Pre-dawn Saturday
  • Edinburg, IL 6:10pm this evening (tornado warning issued 6:24) which is reviewed below.
The radar sequence:

6:07pm
At this point, given the development of the thunderstorm, I would have issued a tornado warning because of:
  • The storm had taken a right turn
  • A hook echo was forming 
  • There was increasing rotation 
At this same time, there was a report of a funnel cloud (tornado aloft). 

The tornado touched down at 6:10 6:09pm. It was live-streamed. 


6:13pm

A farmstead was damaged by the tornado.  Update: Video shows extensive damage in rural areas of central Illinois. There is a path map below.


6:17pm
After the reports of the tornado, we knew it was still on the ground because: there is a strong hook echo in the reflectivity data (left). And, in the preceding ten minutes there was the report of the funnel cloud and, at 6:10pm, of the tornado on the ground. 

On the right, there is strong rotation. There is still no tornado warning even though one has been on the ground for seven minutes!

6:22pm
The tornado continued to move east. In addition to the hook and strong rotation, there was clear lofted debris observed (not shown) on the radar. The tornado had been on the ground for 12 minutes with no tornado warning. 

6:24pm
At long last, after 14 minutes, a tornado warning is finally issued. But, like the Ray Co. tornado warning of Friday evening, it states "radar indicated" tornado when we knew there was a tornado on the ground. Social scientists tell us that phrases like "tornado observed," "tornado on the ground," etc., are far more effective at prompting people to take life-saving measures. 

Below is the rotation track of the storm beginning south southeast of Springfield, IL.

I have run out of adjectives. The once-great National Weather Service of the United States cannot issue an accurate tornado warning these days 

Use their web sites to contact your congressional delegations. Outside oversight is the only way this will be fixed. 

Addition from a storm chaser in the field who called the NWS. I am not acquainted with Reilly. 


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