8pm PDT UPDATED Comprehensive Update on Hilary

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The 6pm PDT satellite image is above. Hilary is moving NNW at 17 mph. 

As of 8pm PDT, Hilary has been downgraded to a Cat 1 storm with 95 mph winds. This is pretty much what was forecasted to occur. 

Also, I have been told The Weather Channel has been showing graphics with lightning east of San Diego. That is not occurring at this time and the I-10/I-8 corridors are relatively quiet at the moment. The heavy rain will develop overnight, after midnight. All travel should be completed by then. 

Its projected path has it weakening to a tropical storm before crossing into California and then becomes a tropical depression. 

Below are the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. 

However, I am concerned some officials may be taking this too far with an evacuation for Catalina Island. I fear that if the winds are perceived to "underperform" people will say the forecast was a bust. Please keep in mind that we make forecasts with the best data and techniques we have at the time. Satellite images overstated the intensity of Hurricane Hilary. It took the Hurricane Hunter to get into the storm in order to give us the correct readings yesterday afternoon, which is why they are such an essential tool. 

The above said, there is still a good chance of ridgetop gusts of 70+ mph, especially in San Diego and western Imperial counties. There will be power outages. Have you made your plans?? Detailed wind data below. 

Rainfall
The rains will cause serious flooding. The rainfall forecasts continue to show heavy rains, especially over the desert of California and western Arizona as well as over what are often the dry sides of the mountains into Nevada. 
Southwest Rainfall

Southern California Rainfall

There is a high statistical risk (really!) of flash flood deaths Sunday and Sunday night in the purple area.

Please complete any travel this evening. It will be too dangerous to travel Sunday once the heavy rains begin. 
Do not pass road closure notices and do not attempt to cross flooded areas by foot or by car!

Important evacuation advice from Dr. Craig Cecee!

Wind Forecast
Southwest 
Please note that wind speed forecasts in the United States are less than they were 48 hours ago. That is not to say there will not be power outages, there likely will be some. Some high winds are possible as far north as the Utah-Nevada-Idaho border area. 

Southern California and Adjacent Areas

There will also be a significant tornado risk Sunday in the southern third of California.

As a FYI, this forecast took nearly two hours to create. I hope you will consider my book about storm warnings or my photographs. 

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