3:45pm Eastern Update on Likely Hurricane Idalia

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I believe Idalia will intensify from tropical storm to hurricane status. There is a a better than 50/50 chance the storm will have sustained winds of 100 mph or stronger. The arrows represent the area that will feel the greater effects of the storm. The eye will likely make landfall between the arrows. 
I expect a hurricane watch will be issued this afternoon. 

The storm surge will be more than three feet with Idalia and, in a worst case, should Idalia become a major hurricane, the surge may be more than 10 feet in places. Please note that a storm surge is forecast for Tampa Bay.

Tornadoes will also occur over Florida, especially north of Alligator Alley and east of Tallahassee. 

Heavy rain, with the potential for flooding, exist. See below. 

I will have more this evening. 

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