3:10pm UPDATE: Potential Life-Threatening Tornado Outbreak Late This Afternoon and Tonight

By -

[scroll up for updated weather information]

This tornado outbreak has the potential for violent, long-tracked tornadoes at night. It is a recipe for a terrible disaster in terms of human life if precautions are not taken. 

The NWS SPC has expanded the red area in Iowa since this morning's forecasts. I continue to believe the brown area 

Here are the color codes:
  • Red hatched: High risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Yellow hatched: Enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • Brown: Significant risk of tornadoes.
The northern area of Iowa-Illinois-Missouri will see tornado-producing thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and continuing into Tuesday night.

In the northern area, the storms are established by 6pm.

The southern area, from St. Louis across the Ozarks and into northeast Texas, may not develop until evening and then continue well into the night. Nighttime tornadoes are 2.5 times more deadly than tornadoes during the day. Below shows the beginning of the southern area as depicted by the TTWRF model. Note the strong storms in eastern Kansas that are not shown on some other models. 
The above image shows the forecast radar as well as rotation in the storm (red lines) as of 11pm.

In the strongest possible terms, I urge you to:
  • Sign up for StormWarn. It is just $25 for a year of peace of mind. If you are in the direct path of a tornado or 80+ mph thunderstorm-generated winds, it will ring two phones of yours with the warning. Think of it as a tornado alarm. Unlike a weather radio, it will not alert you to 1" hail 20 miles away at 3am.
  • A weather radio. They will wake you up. I recommend the programmable version to filter out the false alarms as much as possible. 
  • An app like AccuWeather's. Enable "location" to it will tell you if a tornado warning has been issued. 
  • Enable the FCC's Wireless Emergency Alerts on your smartphone. On an iPhone, touch "notifications" and scroll down. These aren't perfect. 
I recommend you have at least three of the above. It is still early in the 2023 tornado season, so any purchase of StormWarn or a weather radio will carry you through the season. If you have friends or relatives in these areas, call them and refer them to this forecast. Their lives may literally depend on it. 

If you live in a mobile home, please, please listen to this brief piece from my friend Charles Peek. If it were me and there wasn't a friend or relative I could stay with tomorrow night, I would spend the Tuesday night in a motel if the forecast still looks this way Tuesday morning. 

If the tornado alarm goes off, make sure you have shoes and a flashlight nearby to take into shelter. 
I will update this forecast in the mid- to late afternoon..  And, remember, I provide real-time storm coverage on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  

BTW: If you enjoy weather... especially tornadoes, hurricanes and severe storms, you'll love my book Warnings. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Overnight Tornado Forecast Posted at 7:05pm

By -
Image
Here is the tornado forecast for the rest of the night (till 6am CST). Red, hatched = high risk of strong tornadoes. Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Blown = significant risk of tornadoes.  This will be the last update of the night. Tornado Watch until 2am. Please make sure you have ways of getting warnings of tornadoes and 80 mph winds.  6:15pm  NWS believes the chances for tornadoes and damaging winds are increasing in Mississippi. They also say they are going to extend the tornado watch to the east later this evening.  5:35pm: The northwest part of the tornado watch has been cancelled Here is the area where tornadoes are more likely from 4:30 to 7:30pm. From Atmosphere Analytics Rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch till 9pm If you live in these areas it is vital  to monitor the weather until the watch expires at 9pm  Note the forecast is for "numerous strong tornadoes." A very rare "particularly dangerous situation" ...
Read more