There is an exceptional number of exceptional close-up videos of yesterday’s Palm Beach Gardens (PBG) Tornado. After seeing the ever-increasing number into this afternoon I thought, “Why weren’t they taking cover?” Based on a quick look yesterday, it appeared the tornado warning was timely. Unfortunately, it turns out it was not. Now that the National Weather Service’s (NWS) survey of this strong tornado (EF-2 intensity) is complete, it is important to note that the tornado warning was not issued until the tornado had been on the ground for two minutes. The NWS's goal is for the tornado warning to be issued 13 minutes in advance, so this warning fell far short. Fortunately, there were no injuries.    Of course, it is not possible to issue a tornado warning in advance of all tornadoes. Such is the state-of-the-science. But, there are many reasons to believe there could have been advance warning of the PBG tornado – about ten minutes’ worth. This is especially important as this...

There is a significant  risk of tornadoes during the night, most likely after 1am and into mid-morning Sunday, in the brown area.  Please make sure you have your weather radio and WEA alerts activated and near your bed during the night.

If you want to see what it looks like to be inside a tornado go here . This was in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, as our forecast of tornadoes (below) was correct. Here is what the storm looked like from a distance: FYI: Over the past 30 years, Florida ranks #4 for tornadoes. Below is from a professional meteorologist in Florida.

As of 2:30pm EDT, the NWS SPC has outlined (purple) the area where supercell thunderstorms, which may produce tornadoes, are forecast to occur the rest of the afternoon and into this evening.  Below is the radar from 2:33pm.  The storms are generally moving toward the northeast. Please be weather aware if you live in the purple outlined area above. 

This week's rainfall ending at 7am CDT this morning.  Below is the drought conditions as of Tuesday morning, so the rain after that time does not count into the calculations.  While the rain this week certainly helped, it will take as much as ten inches more than average  to break the drought in some areas. 

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. I urge you to keep up on the weather as a low pressure system moves inland from the Gulf. 

The wind may be calm and the turbine not turning but we keep paying for it -- on several levels. 

Tornadoes are forecasted to occur along with wind gusts of 75 mph and hail up to 3 inches (!) in diameter.  If you reside in the watch areas, please monitor the weather the next few hours. Severe thunderstorm watch, including the DFW Metroplex. Hail up to 2" and thunderstorm-generated wind gusts to 70 mph are forecasted to occur.  Hail to 3" and wind gusts to 75 mph are likely.  The severe thunderstorm watch below is in effect until 10pm.  Severe thunderstorm watch for the Rio Grande Valley.

There is a small chance of tornadoes in the northern part of the orange area near Waco. However, the greater threat is giant hail and damaging winds of more than 75 mph -- which will lead to power failures.  Addition at 12:30pm from NWS Storm Prediction Center: Here is the forecasted timing for central Texas. I urge you to prepare! How?  Put your car in the garage.  Bring in lawn furniture or other items that could be damaged by wind or hail. Fill your car with fuel. If you have one, fill your generator with fuel.  In case of widespread power failures, it would be a good idea to get a little extra money from the ATM.  I'll update late this afternoon or evening. 

I think this video will change your mind.  And, if you think it is a good idea to go outside to view a tornado, consider this: Once rain wraps around a tornado , it becomes invisible.  This tornado, which occurred this past Wednesday, killed two in Oklahoma.  Finally, in this screen capture from Pecos Hank , a reminder that if you don't have a tornado shelter or a basement, the place to shelter is in a small room (closet, bath) in the middle of the lowest floor of the house.  Finally, Dr. Craig Ceecee has assembled a list of public shelters. Go here and then zoom, and then click on the location of interest. It will provide with the exact street address. This is particularly useful for mobile home dwellers. A sample is below.  However, if you use a public shelter that is more than a short walk, you will need to allow extra time to arrive due to possible auto traffic in the area. If there is a tornado watch in effect and thunderstorms, go ahead and move to the pu...

I'll be appearing at Love Field's Frontier's of Flight Museum on Saturday, May 6.  I'll be speaking about downbursts at 11am. If you have a copy of one of my books, I'd be happy to autograph it for you. I'll also have copies of Warnings  for sale. The price will be $20, including tax.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather later today and this evening. 

....the forecast for 7pm is for cloudy skies, a slight chance of a sprinkle, and a temperature of 58°F, 

The tornado risk until 7am Thursday.  There is a significant risk of a tornado in the brown area. Damaging thunderstorm-generated winds are possible, also. This is the end of my weather coverage for today. 

UPDATED INFORMATION AVAILABLE ABOVE; SCROLL UP -- original post -- Tornado Watch until 10pm. It includes south portions of the Metroplex.  Strong tornadoes are possible along with 75 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts and hail stones to 3.5 inches in diameter.  Please closely  monitor the weather through this evening as the tornado risk may spread east and possibly as far south as Austin and College Station.  Follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert for additional coverage as the storms develop. 

The tornado was on the ground 50+ miles and did tremendous damage. However, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control, the tornado warnings saved more than 70 lives.  If you would like to read what it was like to be a meteorologist that day, go here .  The meteorology of that day is here .  Video of the F-4 in Cowley County (40 mi southeast of Wichita) is here .  And, my coverage is below. 

Scroll up for later information.  == Original Posting == There is an enhanced risk of strong  tornadoes in the yellow, hatched area. There is a significant risk of tornadoes in brown area.  Please pay attention to the weather in these areas later today. I'll update this afternoon. 

Mark Smith The cows had wet hair this morning in the Gyp Hills of south central Kansas...something that hasn't occurred in quite a while. Here they are seen being bed their breakfast. Below is the rainfall amount map to noon today. First up is a general (smoothed) rainfall map. We are focusing on the winter wheat belt. Below are the latest amounts from the Kansas and Oklahoma Mesonetworks. Just click to enlarge. Below is the rainfall forecast from 7am this morning to 7am Thursday.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. 

Dr. Judy Curry is one of the most prominent climate scientists in the United States. The fascinating thread is here . In climate science, this is known as "pal review" rather than "peer review."  Over the weekend I had, for the umpteenth time, the conversation with a person who calls himself a climate scientist and I asked him "what is earth's optimal temperature for humanity to flourish?" when he was proposing geo-engineering to cool the earth. You can see the exchange -- with the predictable reply -- below. Above is his reply. I'm intentionally leaving off his name. So, we have this clique of climate 'scientists' that won't even attempt  to answer some of the most very basic questions involving the climate and its relationship to humanity. That would seem rather important, especially if we are going to try to cool the climate with the giant risk of shortening growing seasons and causing famine. Finally, I'm quite familiar with cli...

Below is the forecast rainfall (snow in Colorado above 6,000 feet) from now until 6pm Friday.  Here is the latest drought map. The darkest brown color is where the drought is the worst. If the forecast is correct, it will be helpful but it will not break the drought.  Addition  regarding the snow in Colorado. Addition at 11pm Monday:   24-hour rainfall.

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal  had a story about how the Biden Administration is spending three trillion  dollars (that bankrupt America doesn't have) to bribe communities into going along with its global warming 'solutions.' People and organizations believe they can get rich. Unfortunately, as the Obama Administration proved with now-bankrupt solar energy firm Solyndra , battery company A123 , and others, the only people who get rich from this graft are the insiders. Meanwhile, we spend ourselves into energy poverty.  Don't believe me? Winds were light over Alberta, Canada, Friday evening. So, wind power production fell to much less than 1% of capacity. Fortunately, temperatures were mild. But, that less than 1% figure should terrify you. Think about what would have occurred had temperatures been below zero or, in the United States, above 100°F. As they did in Texas in 2021, people die by the hundreds. And, after the initial tsunami of federal cash, the inevitabl...

As I was taking photographs of the supercell thunderstorm in Chase County, Kansas , Wednesday evening, I didn't get to see Channel 3's excellent storm coverage. Kathleen taped it for me, and I was amused to see a mobile home being hauled toward  the tornado*! Because it was dark, they could show the tornado only during lightning flashes. Here's a better view of the tornado. Fortunately, there were just three minor injuries and the damage was not severe.  *If you look at the lower right, you'll see a flashing red light. That is the end of a BNSF train stopped by an AccuWeather track-specific tornado warning.