New York City Halloween Angel When even the New York Times  agrees that global warming will not be a global catastrophe, then the global warming scare is over.  It is probably too much to hope, but -- maybe -- the MSM will stop blaming every storm of every type on global warming.  Now, hopefully, we can address the genuine issues: The USA and the world need far  more electrical generating capability . It should be primarily from hydro (where possible) and nuclear (nearly everywhere). In the meantime, we should build natural gas as a temporary bridge. We should not  install another wind turbine onto the grid except in rare circumstances.  Update: Another climate scientist agrees . 

This is a  must read  pertaining to the state of the media and how it relates to the awful attack on Paul Pelosi. I try not to post about politics too often (except, occasionally, as it relates to global warming) but this is truly a must read. 

The hottest Halloween costumes for 2022. 

It will be ten years this evening that the eye of Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey -- at tremendous cost to our nation.  This blog was called the "gold standard" of Sandy coverage by the president of the American Meteorological Society as we provided early warning even though the American computer models took Sandy out to sea.  The first post (below) was seven days  before landfall. As long-time readers know, I have a general policy of not forecasting hurricanes more than five days out because of the relatively high chance of warning the wrong area.  But, I was so concerned by the potential that the developing low pressure center -- then off the coast of South America -- I felt notification was necessary; especially since the last hurricane to strike that part of the nation was in the middle of the 20th Century. The European (ECMWF) global weather forecasting model, in that era, handled hurricanes extremely well and had Sandy striking the Middle Atlantic c...

On June 5, 2018, I posted a piece about an American Airlines flight that flew right through the core of a hailstorm with predictable results.  Unfortunately, there has been a nearly identical incident; this time in Paraguay Wednesday evening.  Below is a screen capture of lightning flashing outside of the plane.  The Daily Mail  has coverage . The nose cone of this aircraft is in even worse shape than the American flight. The radar antenna is completely gone and the windscreens are shattered. The radar is turned parallel to the camera. The antenna is still there.  This thunderstorm encounter was even less excusable (if that's possible) than the American Airlines' (AA) encounter as it was night and lightning would have been visible before the plane entered the storm. That should have prompted the crew to closely examine the onboard radar using varying tilts. That they didn't, as with the AA example, is aeronautical malpractice.  I will also raise a new iss...

How can $3.8 trillion buy you nothing? Well, it hasn’t bought exactly nothing. It has bought you a bunch of useless crap while also doing exactly what it is intended to do: transfer great amounts of wealth to the friends and families of powerful people and transfer huge amounts of power into the hands of politicians and bureaucrats who are gaining control over every aspect of our lives.  The quote is contained in this excellent, brief, essay . Don't miss reading it!

 ...that will get zero media coverage because it accurate -- which means it is not alarming.  Details are here . 

Here are the storm total rainfalls from the recent storm that passed out of the area yesterday. 

There is a pretty good chance of tornadoes in this area from now until 7pm. Please monitor local sources of weather warnings.  Or, sign up for StormWarn by clicking here . For just $25/yr it will call up to two phone numbers with tornado or ≥ 80 mph wind warnings but only if you are in the direct path of the storm. No false alarms in the middle of the night. 

Better Than Nuthin' with Ken Root Podcast If you haven't had a chance, you might enjoy listening to my podcast with Ken Root about the early days of storm warnings and television meteorology.  You can listen by clicking here .  The Jim Bohannon Show, September 28 Jim Bohannon And, if you missed my appearance on The Jim Bohannon Show,  you can listen by clicking here . Please scroll down to September 28th program.  The topic on the Jim Bohannon show was Hurricane Ian and similar extreme weather.  If you enjoy learning about weather and meteorology, please consider my books, here and here .  Happy listening!

Tornado watch until midnight for the area outlined in red. Winds of 75 mph are quite possible, as well. Some of the storms may also produce 1.5" hail. The 7:40pm radar shows severe thunderstorms (yellow polygons) that are intensifying as they move into central Texas.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas! Beyond midnight, this is the tornado forecast (brown) until 7am. 

Needed rains have fallen the last 24-hours in the winter wheat belt. This is the rainfall map up to 3pm. Rain continues to fall in the southern Great Plains. Here is the radar as of 4pm. Below is the NWS's forecast for additional rainfall for the next three days ending at 7pm Thursday. In many areas, this rain will be sufficient for planting to occur, especially in parts of western Oklahoma where as much east two inches fell. Much more rain is needed to significantly dent the drought.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes today. Please monitor local weather conditions. 

At 3pm CDT, lightning (small + symbols) and blowing dust (brown) are both occurring in Kansas -- a highly unusual situation.  Click to enlarge  I still believe we will see thunderstorms with damaging winds later. Please see the post below. 

I have outlined the area where thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and tonight that could cause wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. If you live in these areas, please keep an eye out for local weather warnings starting late this afternoon and continuing through the night.  UPDATE - 10:30a Monday FYI: The blue dots are the locations of reports of thunderstorms with ≥ 58mph winds.

We can add Texas and Kansas to this cartoon. While solar and wind are beneficial for specialized uses, they are both disasters when part of the grid. For grid purposes they make electricity service less reliable and more expensive. They also do almost nothing to actually cut greenhouse gas. Because they are so unreliable, utilities must run conventional generators in the background.  Want to decarbonize energy? Nuclear and hydro are the ways to go. 

The winter wheat belt desperately needs rain for planing the 2023 crop. While I wish the area of rain was farther northwest, the rain depicted in this NWS forecast would be quite helpful. The first significant snow of the 2022-23 winter is forecasted to fall in the Mountain West. AccuWeather There is the possibility of severe thunderstorms in parts of the central Great Plains late tomorrow afternoon and throughout the evening. Please check back tomorrow for updated info. 

More here . Take away the subsidies and no one would build wind turbines. 

The latest Palmer Drought Index shows the severe drought conditions in the central and southern  Great Plains as well as in parts of California and Oregon. Both areas will be helped by three low pressure systems that will move through the northwest and central USA during the next 15 days.  Forecast Rainfall for the Next Seven Days The first heavy snow of the season is forecast for the mountains in the West.  Rainfall Out to Two Weeks Below is a map that shows the amount rainfall above or below normal for the next two weeks. There is also a chance of severe thunderstorms this weekend in the Great Plains. I'll have more on that tonight or tomorrow. 

In most of these, the mainstream media and government told us the opposite of what was actually true.  The list is here . 

Giving money and power to government is like  giving  whiskey and a sports car to a teenage boy.  Given the vast corruption in our government as revealed by the multiple investigative stories by the Wall Street Journal  this year (most recent here ), we should be doing everything we can to eliminate many federal agencies (FBI, etc.) and scale back far more of them (EPA, Education, etc.). 

We desperately need younger, more creative ideas in the United States. Here are some good ones . 

....Chuck Yeager became the first person to ever fly faster than the speed of sound. He truly had "the right stuff." Make it a point to read or watch the movie The Right Stuff. With the exception of what we now know was unfair treatment of Gus Grissom, both the book and movie are outstanding. 

 This is an absolute must read . 

I recorded a podcast with my friend Ken Root and it is here if you wish to listen. I think you will enjoy it! Here is the link to the book we discussed . 

We have a wide variety of photography, especially related to weather, at Adobe Stock Photography . Please check it out. 

War in the Ukraine with nuclear weapons' use threatened. The strategic oil reserve at the lowest level since it was first filled. China and North Korea saber rattling. Inflation through the roof. Burgeoning federal deficit. So, what is the White House focusing on? Global warming...art! Lubchenco is a marine scientist (who know little about how the atmosphere operates) who formerly ran NOAA and, like almost all of the NOAA administrators of this century, neglected the National Weather Service. She now works for the White House climate office.  Lubchenco was recently involved in a major scientific scandal involving a conflict of interest.  So, it is probably not surprising the White House wants this global warming stunt to take the 'heat 'off their climate office. Still, it is absurd for federal dollars to be spent on this stunt given the issues facing our nation and the White House at this time. 

A man in Spain has had artificial "weather fins" installed on his body in order to "hear the weather." We live in an insane world, but if you want to learn more it is here . 

This piece , by an engineer, is rather technical in places but it explains well the undesirability of adding more wind and solar to the grid.  Nuclear, on the other, is a good idea. 

As I said on Twitter, this way of thinking is sick. If you wish to read it, the story is here .  Even worse, is this from Politico : Putin is a 'green' hero because he has killed tens of thousands but, in the process, cut off conventional energy to Europe.  While there are some dedicated scientists in the field of environmental science, almost all of the 'leaders' hate humanity (except themselves!) or are profiteers. 

World We have had another "pause" in global warming. Here is the world temperature data since 2000. Temperatures were late from about 2002 to 2013, a period known as The Pause. Temperatures shot up from then until 2016 which was a period with a strong El Nino (warm water in the equatorial Pacific). Since then -- a period with La Nina (cold water) -- temperatures have been flat to falling.  It is fair to point out that none of the above was forecasted by the climate models. We have previously covered the crop production issues in various parts of the world.  That said, it is quite likely temperatures will start to rise again with the next El Nino. United States Things are much more puzzling in the United States as we have had no warming since the state-of-the-art U.S. Historical Climate Network -- which was intended to absolutely prove global warming -- was installed.  This is an extremely surprising result that climate science has not explained.  As long-time readers...

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes this evening, very possibly after dark. The green area has a tiny chance (2%) of tornadoes. Tornadoes after dark, statistically, are nearly three times more deadly than daylight storms.  Now is a great time to subscribe to StormWarn . For about $2 per month, you receive 24/7 notifications via your phone if you are in the direct path of a tornado or damaging (>80 mph) winds. Instantly, after we ring your phones, we send you an email notification with a snapshot of the radar which shows the storm in relation to your home or other subscription location.  Another great thing abut using StormWarn is that there are no middle of the night awakenings for 1" hail or other non-life-threatening weather conditions. It will also not ring your phones unless you are in the direct path of the storm.  For less than the price of a single cup of coffee, you protect yourself and your loved ones from deadly storms. 

There has just been a regional tornado outbreak in southeast Wisconsin less than two hours after a forecast of "no tornadoes" was issued by the National Weather Service.  The above forecast was issued by the NWS's Storm Prediction Center at 11:48am. The green area has a 2% risk of tornadoes. Elsewhere, the forecast was for no risk.  However, less than an hour later, a regional outbreak of tornadoes began in southeast Wisconsin.  Each of the red triangles represents the location of a tornado.  Tornadoes can be tricky to forecast. My purpose is not to criticize the National Weather Service. My goal is to illustrate why you need a tool -- StormWarn -- that will inform you that you are in danger when you are in the path of a tornado or damaging thunderstorm warnings of 80 mph or more.  StormWarn will ring your phones when you are in the direct path of a tornado even if you are asleep in the middle of the night. The great thing is it will not  warn you un...

While we are grateful for any rain we can get, most of last night's rain missed the area where it is needed the most. This is wheat planting season -- hard red winter wheat is planted in September and October for harvest the following May - July. Above is the 24-hour rain amounts ending at 11am CDT. Below is a map of where winter wheat is produced. Greener = more wheat per acre.