A number of people have asked me how much damage Ian caused in Florida. Here is an estimate.  The full article is here . More than two million homes and businesses are without power at this time = more than 5,000,000 people. It will be weeks before all of the power is restored. 

Above is the radar from 12:06pm. The center of Hurricane Ian is moving slightly north of west. The pressure has dropped two millibars in the last couple of hours. The National Hurricane Center says its maximum sustained winds are 85 mph. It is possible the wind could strengthen just a bit before it makes landfall. The winds are more spread out than usual for a hurricane.  H = hurricane.  D = tropical depression (< 40 mph winds) Amber = winds stronger than 40 mph. Brown = hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) Red = hurricane warning  Blue = tropical storm warning

Here is the color code: H = hurricane.  S = tropical storm (> 40 mph winds) Amber = winds stronger than 40 mph. Brown = hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) Red = hurricane warning  Pink = hurricane watch Blue = tropical storm warning There is a hurricane warning from Savannah to Cape Fear. There is also a storm surge warning.  The orange area especially will have a life-threatening storm surge.  The area in yellow below has a significant risk of tornadoes. The red area has a moderate risk of flash flooding.

Unfortunately, I have a number of (routine but time-consuming) medical tests today. It is not possible for me to provide quality information on Ian.  If you were unable to listen to my appearance on last night's Jim Bohannon Show,  a podcast recording of the show is here .  News coverage is here .  This equates to about 7 million people  without power.  The people who fly the vital Hurricane Hunter flights are heroes . 

So, here is all you need to know.  These are two peer-reviewed graphs that demonstrate there is no  increase in number of hurricanes.... ...and, no increase in hurricane intensity. You can see these for yourself at Dr. Ryan Maue's (PhD, Tropical Meteorology) website . The trend in landfalling hurricanes in the United States is clearly down.

Like 2004's Charley, Ian is headed in the direction of Orlando. 8pm radar.  Maximum winds at 8pm are 115 mph with a central pressure of 960 millibars. Winds gusts to 90 mph in Charley and something similar will occur with Ian. People in the Orlando - Disneyworld area need to hunker down, now!  Below is a map of the predicted wind swath of Ian into the Atlantic where it will regenerate to near hurricane or actual hurricane force and then turn north threatening coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina. Here is the specific projected path: Legend: H = hurricane.  S = tropical storm (> 40 mph winds) Amber = winds stronger than 40 mph. Brown = hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) Red = hurricane warning  Pink = hurricane watch Blue = tropical storm warning A tornado watch is in effect until 1am. The watch is the area enclosed in red. Florida is approaching 2 million homes and businesses without power. That equates to about 5 million people. The power failures were only...

Note: I have posted updates as of 5:50pm.  Radar image of Ian at 5:21pm. Here is the latest forecast path by the National Hurricane Center as of 5pm. H = hurricane.  S = tropical storm (> 40 mph winds) Amber = winds stronger than 40 mph. Brown = hurricane force winds ( ≥ 75 mph) Red = hurricane warning  Pink = hurricane watch Blue = tropical storm warning Wind Forecast This is the peak wind forecast for the next four days. Ian is expected to cause wind gusts of near 100 mph around Orlando-Disneyworld. It will weaken a bit until it emerges into the Atlantic where it is forecast to restrengthen and make another landfall in Georgia or South Carolina.  Update:   Here is a map of power failures. There are 1.3+ million customers out at this point which equates to nearly 4 million people.  Storm Surge A serious and possibly life-threatening storm surge is forecasted to occur across coastal areas of South Carolina, Georgia and the First Coast of Florida. ...

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Important update in red! We have multiple reports of weather stations clocking wind gusts of stronger than 100 mph.  The Doppler wind data (not shown) is still showing extreme winds. Below is the type of radar you see on television. Given the lightning, it is not likely to lose any strength soon, so inland damage may be extreme even away from the coast. The above radar is from 1:35pm EDT. Because lightning indicates a strengthening storm, the west edge of the eye will be as strong as the leading edge. The storm surge will be from a different, or perhaps, opposite direction.  Additional info at 2:03pm.  The wind swath data just in shows winds gusting above 100 mph in the Orlando-Disneyworld area. This happened with Charley (2004) and it caused tremendous damage and long-period power outages in central Florida as well as along the coast. Please prepare now.  Note the storm regenerates in the Atlantic off Daytona-Jacksonville. I'll cover that in detail later this after...

This is a catastrophic situation. Ian is "on the threshold of Cat 5 intensity" (National Hurricane Center quote) The area from Tampa to Naples to Orlando/Disneyworld will see life-threatening conditions as hurricane-force winds cross from the Gulf to the Atlantic.  As of 11:20am, based on the Doppler radar data aloft reduced to sea level, I believe we have Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds of 160-165 mph. It is impossible to overstate how dangerous this storm is as the lightning (+ symbols) indicate that the storm is still trying to intensify. Below is the radar at 12:20pm. The eyewall of Ian is over Sanibel and Captiva. Twenty minutes ago, the wind gusted to 98 mph at Sanibel. Winds have only increased since then. This photo was taken by cyclonePORT on Sanibel as the storm surge covered the island. 10:54 am radar. The lightning indicates the storm is still trying to strengthen. Its winds at this time are still 155 mph. The arrows denote  Hurricane-force winds (75 mph...

12:02am radar. Ian is moving straight north at this moment.  As of 11:53pm, there are 22,500 homes and businesses ("customers") without power in Florida. That equates to about 60,000 people. That number will grow during the night and skyrocket on Wednesday.  There is no change to the forecasts below (see both of the postings below) as of now. Of course, I will update in the morning but please remember, it takes me a while to get into the data.  If you are in an evacuation area, please get out now! Goodnight. 

At landfall, the sustained winds right on the coast may reach 135 mph with gusts to 155 mph. According to NHC, there will be "devastating" wind damage and the storm surge -- worst between Sarasota and Naples -- will be "life-threatening."  Damaging winds are likely  inland into the Disneyworld-Orlando areas or just to the south. There will be near total power failures throughout this region back west to the coast.  The map below shows the times by which your precautions need to be complete.  Note: As shown in the upper map, Ian may restrengthen once it gets back out over the Atlantic and may produce wind damage in Georgia and/or South Carolina.  There is an enhanced tornado risk in the south half of Florida tonight and throughout the Peninsula tomorrow. Please see the posting below for more details. 

More and more, Hurricane Ian is resembling Hurricane Charley (2004) only with a larger  (in size) wind field, which means the damage will over a larger area.  Current Status of Hurricane Ian The hurricane has maximum sustained winds are 120 mph with minimum pressure of 947 millibars. The winds were highly variable this afternoon. The cooling cloud tops now surrounding the eye indicate to me that Ian has resumed strengthening.  Here is the radar at 8:11pm. Latest Forecast for Ian Below is my forecast of where the eye of Ian will make landfall tomorrow. I believe the peak sustained wind speed will reach 140 mph with a chance it could be stronger. Below is a wind swath map. The actual winds could be moved 30 or so miles in any direction.  Note: if this is a perfect forecast, wind gusts will be in the 100-110mph range over and near the immediate south side of Tampa Bay. The winds will be even stronger if the hurricane makes landfall slightly north.  Inland: Win...