And, while the paramedics were putting the seriously injured you into the ambulance, an attorney ran up and tried to shove a business card into your (broken) hand and started to explain all the grounds you had for a lawsuit: improperly maintained road, poorly designed air bags, et cetera. Would you appreciate the attorney's actions?
Now, let's assume that, instead of an attorney, it was a meteorologist who ran up to you on your gurney and told you all of the ways that climate change contributed to the accident. Do you think he would win any friends? Or, would it be better to wait until the crisis was over?
During yesterday's fatal flash flood in Dallas, a number of meteorologists began tweeting about the alleged relationship between global warming and the flash flood -- even as, simultaneously, news reports were explaining that people were being pulled out of cars.
To me, these are mildly unseemly, not because of their message, but because of their timing. It is similar to the ambulance chasing attorney. While the event is in progress, the focus by meteorologists should be accurate warnings and followups and, by everyone else, getting those needing rescue and medical attention taken care of.
This is especially true since a correlation between global warming and more flash floods is not accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is considered the "gold standard" on the topic.
IPCC’s 2022 report says in its "North America" section (p 1938):
Observed trends in extreme precipitation events are more difficult to detect with confidence, because the natural variability of precipitation is so large and the observational database is limited.
They even highlight the above in yellow. You can find the entire section here.
The U.S. National Climate Assessment comes to a similar conclusion:
However, in U.S. regions, no formal attribution of precipitation changes to anthropogenic forcing has been made so far, so indirect attribution of flooding changes is not possible. Hence, no formal attribution of observed flooding changes to anthropogenic forcing has been claimed.[bold type theirs]
Finally, per Dr. Roger Pielke Junior's peer-reviewed work, U.S. flood damages are a tiny fraction of what they were eight decades ago when measured against the U.S. gross national product.
Since the hypothesis that climate change has increased flash floods is not accepted, it is hard to understand what weather scientists accomplish by the "rush to tweet" while these events are in progress. I strongly recommend we cease doing it.
To be clear, I do not object to a scientific discussion after the event is over, even if the science is not generally accepted. That is how science advances. But, I believe we should stop with the rush to tweet while hydro-meteorological disasters are in progress.
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia. 1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes. If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub. I'll update later today.
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night. Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas. Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!! Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action. Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing. Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing. Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow. Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday. Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
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