Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecasts - Updated 11:45pm

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Tornadoes
Here is a summary of the forecast:
  • The red area has a high risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • The yellow area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. 
  • The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes with any thunderstorms that occur.
  • The KS-OK-MO yellow area labeled "if" has two risks of tornadoes: tonight with a line of thunderstorms, brief tornadoes may occur. This afternoon and evening, if a thunderstorm develops, there is a good chance it will cause a strong tornado. 
  • The TX-LA yellow area will see an enhanced risk of tornadoes if supercells develop in that area.
Damaging Thunderstorm Winds
Here is an explanation of the map:
  • Purple has an extreme risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. Power failures likely. 
  • Red has a high risk of wind gusts above 60 mph. 
  • Yellow has an enhanced risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. 
Large Hail
Wherever you see hatching, the risk of hailstones of 2" or larger is possible. In Iowa, there is a high risk of giant hail occurring. 

Elsewhere, the red areas have an enhanced risk with a significant risk in the yellow. 

I will update this forecast this afternoon. 

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