Drought: A Small Ray of Hope?

By -
Wheat field, April 16, 2022. central Butler County, Kansas
I went out to take a look at a few wheat fields myself this afternoon and the crop probably looks the worst I've seen it in my 40+ years. While I am certainly no expert, the reports of poor crop conditions appear to be correct.

Over the next two weeks, the extended range computer models are indicating the possibility that sufficient rains may fall that could slightly ease the drought in the winter wheat belt.

How Much Rain is Needed?
Based on the Palmer Drought Index, the following amounts are what are needed to ease the drought. Note: these amounts are in addition to the "normal" rainfall amount (i.e., if normal is 2 inches and the map shows 3 inches, then 5 inches are needed).

NOAA has helpfully calculated the amounts needed.

The black areas had insufficient data to make an estimate this week. The states are broken into NOAA's "climate divisions." 

The Forecasts
Among the products produced by the major global meteorological modeling systems are "ensembles" where the model is run over and over using slightly different initial conditions. For example, we may not know the precise location of a low pressure system in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. So, that uncertainty is taken into account by running the ensembles. 

All of the major modeling systems are indicating significant rains over much of the region the next two weeks:

European Global Model Ensemble (statistically, the world's most accurate)
Canadian Global Model (medium accuracy, statistically)

United States' Global Model (statistically least accurate)

Please do not focus on the details but rather that all three model ensembles, of varying statistical accuracy, have surprisingly similar forecasts. 

It is important to realize that, in most areas, there is little to no "excess" (e.g., more than normal) rainfall forecasted. Returning to the European ensemble, below is a forecast of which areas will have below or above normal amounts if the forecast is "perfect" (they never are).
Still, if these forecasts are correct, this will be the first two week period in quite a while the wheat belt hasn't lost ground. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more