We've already had a couple of tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia. But, the main tonight threat will be after midnight and will continue tomorrow. There is also an increasing threat of flooding throughout the Mid-South.  Here is the overall threat area in brown.  I have focused in on two areas where I think the tornado threat is a little higher until 8am. The threat here begins around 11pm. Scroll down for the tornado forecast for after 7am New Years Day.    The second area is from 2am to 8am.  There is a flood threat throughout the green area. FYI: Pink is a winter storm warning and purple is a winter weather advisory. 

Betty White has passed away at the age of 99. While she played numerous roles in Hollywood, my favorite was Sue Ann Nivens, the Happy Homemaker, on the Mary Tyler Moore Show. To set up the above scene, Sue Ann was a viper behind the scenes and adopted a sweet-as-honey personna on the air. In this clip. they asked Sue Ann, try out as as co-anchor with blowhard anchorman Ted Baxter (played by Ted Knight).  May she rest in peace. 

I'm sorry to report that we have a tornado risk later tonight and an even more serious tornado risk tomorrow (January 1).  There is also a serious flood risk due to heavy rains in an area with saturated soils.  Tonight The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes between midnight and 6am Thursday. It will be important to have a method for receiving a tornado warning that will awaken you during the night in case a tornado warning is issued.  Saturday and Saturday Night Unfortunately, it looks like a we will have a tornado outbreak -- including strong tornadoes. The hatched area is where strong tornadoes are forecasted to occur.  The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes.   The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Serious Flood Risk There is a serious risk of heavy rains and serious flooding in the green-shaded areas. Please monitor the weather in these areas and think about what you would do to if flooding develops in your a...

Updated: NWS watches and warnings as of 10:25am.  Here is a color code: Pink is winter storm warning.  Deep green is a winter storm watch.  Purple is a winter weather advisory (lesser condition) Green is a flood watch.  Here is the forecast snow accumulations .  Click to enlarge I'm still concerned there are some areas between I-70 and I-80 could have amounts a little larger than what is forecast here but this is the best forecast I can come up with at this time. Over southern Kansas and northern Missouri the snow will occur toward the end of the event.  Sleet/Ice Pellets Snow amounts will be cut a bit by the considerable amount of sleet forecasted to fall.  Freezing Rain Freezing rain is what causes power failures, trees to fall, and roads to be incredibly hazardous. I don't believe there will be sufficient accumulations for power failures or tree problems.  Temperatures at 5pm Saturday Wind Chills at 8am Sunday In all, this will be a major winte...

The sunrise photos out of Colorado are tragic beyond belief. It is as if a wide EF-4 intensity tornado had pushed through this area. A still tax deductible for 2021 to Salvation Army Disaster Relief would be a great way to help. 

It is vital to have more than one reliable way to receive vital storm warnings. 

 At 10:08pm, I'm still working on the forecasts.  I expect to have them posted by 10:45. 

As of the 4pm data, my winter storm forecast ( below ) still looks pretty good. The amounts may be a bit greater in the heavier snow area and the icy area may need to be extended farther into Illinois.  Below is the current NWS watches and warnings. Click to enlarge.  I will make a new forecast late this evening.

Given all of the storms of December, this is book is more timely than ever. And, here's the newest Amazon review of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather . If you enjoy this blog, I hope you will purchase my book. 

Here is my initial forecast of snow and ice from 5pm Friday to 6pm Saturday evening. Additional accumulations will occur into Illinois, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan beyond 6pm Saturday. I'll have an update Thursday afternoon. 

 I expect to have an update on the weekend winter storm prospects late this evening. 

The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has added a hatched area to its earlier tornado outlook. The hatching means they are forecasting "strong" tornadoes to occur.  To recap:  The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk.  If you live in these areas please follow the weather for the rest of today and into this evening.  As of 10:40am, thunderstorms are beginning to form over the region. 

The yellow area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening.  Please keep an eye on the weather today. 

Here is the output of three of the primary models we use for medium range forecasting. All call for significant snows in the Friday (31st) through Sunday (2nd) period. But, there is little lock-on yet as to location of the heaviest of snows. Experience and model bias indicates the more southern models may be the more likely to be correct.  However, if you wish to avoid snow and ice, you may wish to travel Thursday or wait until the storm passes and road crews have about 12 hours to finish their work.  Of course, I'll have much more on this storm as the week progresses. 

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Please keep up on the weather in these areas. I'll have more tomorrow. 

On two occasions ( here and here ) in 2020, I used the term "miasma" when discussing medical officials' inexplicable advice to the public pertaining to COVID. In the earlier of the two pieces, I wrote: My point was that the advice they were giving was appropriate if COVID spread through contaminated air. But Dr. Fauci, CDC and WMO were confusingly telling us that it spread through "droplets" (there are many other articles in addition to the one at the link that state the droplet hypothesis). The two -- droplets vs contaminated air -- are contradictory in the way transmission occurs and how to protect ourselves.  In a fascinating investigative report in Wired ,  it turns out the miasma theory  is correct when it comes preventing the spread of COVID in the sense that airborne coronavirus virons (small enough to be aerosols* -- a term also used in meteorology) suspended in the air create an invisible cloud of "bad air." Spend enough time in it and you a...

Whenever a tornado strikes California, the news media becomes discombobulated. They want to believe California doesn't get tornadoes when it usually is struck by several each year. Note the scare quotes around the word tornado below: Daily Mail  I looked at the radar for 8:42 pm PST Christmas evening and found the tornado just west of Santa Barbara.  The green and red "couplet" indicates the location of the tornado as moved inland.  Remember: tornadoes occur in all 50 United States. 

As has been the case three of the last four Christmas seasons, Amazon was out of Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather for most all of the month of December. 😒 They are taking orders again, so if you wish to use your gift card for a great gift, click here . 

You'll remember (or, more mercifully, you've forgotten) a weirdo named "Benny Drama" the White House paid (with our tax $$) this past summer to encourage people to get vaccinated.  Evidently, that wasn't enough. So, if you will click here , you will hear the White House acapella choir sing soulfully about booster shots. Oy!!

Hope Santa has brought you what you wanted. I also hope it is the most joyous Christmas ever!!

The Poynter Institute has published a wonderful story about the local meteorologist who saved so many lives during the December 10 tornadoes .  I would extend the praise to all of the meteorologists across the nation who worked the extreme storms of December, 2021. 

Here is the forecast precipitation for the next 15 days.  For now through seven days (6pm CST Dec. 30). From day 8 to 15.  By the time we get to about January 13, the drought will be about over. I am not able to offer a forecast beyond that time, unfortunately. 

Why does anyone take him seriously?

Here is the updated Palmer Drought Index with data as of the 16th. Note there are now a few small areas of blue (wetter than average) in California and Nevada! The forecast precipitation for the next seven days calls excessive amounts along the West Coast.  However, there are indications that the pattern will change around January 1. Below is a map of forecast high temperatures on New Year's Day.  The extreme cold that has been bottled up in Canada will finally move south and it looks like it may stay a while.  The 8-14 day precipitation outlook (published Dec. 21) is forecasting above normal in the Great Plains after two months of well below normal rainfall. Here's the problem: if we have a trend to colder weather combined with above normal precipitation (snow), the supply chain issues we have seen across the nation will likely worsen. Stay tuned.  Update: Here are today's 8-14 Day Outlook. There are a couple of changes worth discussing.  This new set of foreca...

A number of us keep making this point but Big Environment keeps assuring us that all will be well. It won't. We need to stop with the unreliable windmills and embark on an urgent program to build nuclear and hydro power plants as quickly as possible. 

Up to December 11th (latest available), the Palmer Drought Index showed remarkable improvement in the West compared to November 1st. December 11 Palmer Drought Index (most recent) November 1 Palmer Index The current map shows far  less area in "extreme" drought.  The forecast for the next seven days calls for heavy to even excessive rain and snow in the West.  Precipitation Forecast to 6pm CST December 28 Parts of the Sierra will receive 15+ inches of rain and melted snow. Extreme snowfall is forecasted in the Colorado mountains as well as in Utah. Flooding could develop in California by January 1.  The worsening drought in the Great Plains will continue for the next seven days. However, there are indications of a pattern change in the upper atmosphere around January 1. That would be colder and wetter than the pattern we've been in during most of December.  I hope to have more on the changing weather pattern tonight or tomorrow.  

One of my favorite restaurants in the world is Jack Stack Bar-B-Que in Kansas City. I've been eating there since my father used to purchase their "49er" sandwich (called the Jack Stack Sandwich before it was discontinued) in 1957 when it was on Troost. It was brisket, ham, lettuce and their sauce on a delicious roll. During the last few months when I have ordered it, I was told it was discontinued. Now, I've learned the restaurant no longer serves ham -- at all.  We came back from KC today and it was the first time I can remember not visiting. Without ham, I'm not as interested.  On the way back from KC, I went into Arby's, ordered their ham sandwich, and was told they no longer serve ham (I guess they no longer have "the meats").  So, I did a little internet research and found the following no longer serve ham: Panera . Subway (UK). Hog Wild Bar-B-Que (Wichita, my home) What's going on? What happened to ham? Any one know what is behind this? P...

More warnings of power failures this winter.  And, the more electric cars + more wind turbines = the worst things are.  Can you heat your home if there is a prolonged power outage this winter???

 

A distinguished professor of meteorology from the University of Washington opines .  And, damage from tornadoes is decreasing.   1950 is chosen for the start point because that is when records began.  And, violent tornadoes (like December 10's) are much less  frequent than 50 years ago. Official NOAA data

The brown area, which includes Houston, Beaumont and Lake Charles, has a significant chance of tornadoes. Please monitor the weather in this region.