The central Great Plains and parts of the southern Plains have been exceptionally quiet when it comes to tornadoes for the last 18 months. Because it has been so long, I wanted to give this preliminary "heads up" that we might break that long streak Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.  Of course, I will keep an eye on this for you and will update over the weekend. Stay tuned!

Masked John Kerry on scooter. Via Drudgereport The quote with video is here . He said: "We need to remove the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere." Carbon dioxide, along with oxygen, are the essential atmospheric elements to life on earth. Without them all life -- humans, animals, plants -- ceases. This is just another example of how incredibly unscientific the catastrophic global warming moment has become.  We have record agricultural production with almost no meteorological famine and Kerry wants to screw with that? The existing CO2 may even be a bit of an "insurance policy" against future climatological cold spells such as the one that occurred in the middle of the 20th Century (see graph below). That said, there are good reasons to slow the future rate of carbon flowing into the atmosphere because too much additional warming could be a bad thing. That should be done via nuclear power for electricity generation.  Last week, I received another email with the "...

As of Monday (so it does not include the excessive rainfall from Oklahoma to southern Illinois) the drought in the West is extreme for agriculture as it is in North Dakota and from western Pennsylvania to northern New York. This map's data was before the torrential rains in the Ozarks region the past three days. Those rains are displayed below. Please note that moisture is adequate over most of the winter wheat growing area. 

The value of weather forecasts and storm warnings isn't limited to saving lives. They have a huge economic value.  Let's begin with the extraordinary simultaneous hailstorms in San Antonio, Ft. Worth and Norman. Here is the forecast from this blog yesterday.  It correctly forecasts hail up to 4" in diameter in Texas in the orange area and singles out the DFW Metroplex. Norman is in the yellow area. Compare the forecast to the actual hail streaks which are red lines, more or less horizontal (west to east). Considering there is a nationwide shortage of auto glass plus the hassles of dealing with insurance and rental cars, if people had put their cars in garages and brought in lawn furniture, etc., considerable economic value would be gained. More on the hailstorms, here . The Flooding This blog forecast major flooding for the Ozarks region ten days ago . Here are the actual 48-hour rainfalls in the region.  The forecasts got more specific with time, which -- if they chose t...

Extreme Weather Summary, 12:30am Flooding Update Here is the rainfall for the 48 hours ending at midnight.  The pinks are rainfalls of 6 to 7 inches. They have fallen on already-saturated ground. The radar map from 12:20am (below) shows rains continuing to fall over parts of Oklahoma and northern Arkansas. This is a different type of flood map than we usually post. It depicts the "recurrence interval" of the rainfall over the 24 hours ending at midnight.  The dark red = a once in ten year rainfall event.  There is a small area in northwest Arkansas where it is a once in 75 year rainfall event.  The National Weather Service says the flooding on the Illinois River, especially near Tallequah, is extremely serious and "life-threatening." Severe flooding is also occurring in northwest Arkansas.  Severe Hailstorms This is a map of hail swaths. The dark red areas are giant hail of 2" or more in diameter. There was softball-sized hail west of San Antonio. There were th...

Things have worsened since my morning update (now deleted): Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of a tornado. In the Metroplex and south of I-20, the risk will begin after 2pm.  Giant Hail Risk In the orange area, there is the potential for hail up to four inches in diameter. This includes the DFW Metroplex.  Increasing Flood Risk Here is the rainfall up to 11:30am.  The golds are amounts of 3" or more. The pinks along I-35 south of OKC = 6 inches.  Heavy rain continues to fall in this area. Below is the radar from 11:55am. Gold polygons are flash flood warnings. Taking a wider view,  Dark greens are flood watches. Light greens are flood warnings. Maroon is flash flood warnings.  Over the next 48 hours, there will be areas of rainfall of 3 inches or more: In southwest Missouri, the forecast is for an additional  4-5 inches! Major flooding will result in the areas where flood warnings are now in effect and where additional ...

This time it was Bentonville, Arkansas, this morning.  Brian Armis, Via Twitter There was one child and the driver on board.  For years, we have been highlighting the problem of school buses being driven into floodwater s and endangering children.  Video of a Washington, DC but being driven into a flood is here .  Parents: Please contact your school board and make sure school bus drivers' training is upgraded to include, "Turn Around, Don't Drown."

As we get into the statistical heart of tornado season 2021, this is the only book on the topic of how the storm warning system came to be: Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather .  The warning system doesn't just encompass tornado warnings,  Did you know that downbursts were once the #1 cause of commercial airliner crashes? Because of one courageous meteorologist, the last U.S. downburst crash was in 1994.  A single unwarned U.S. hurricane killed 8,000 people (which would be 13,000 today due to population increase). We've prevented that type of disaster.  The evacuation ahead of Hurricane Katrina was one of the largest peacetime evacuations in U.S. history -- and it saved 40,000+ lives.  With graduations, Mother's Day and Father's Day coming up, I hope you'll consider picking up a copy. 

Yesterday's post focused on the "people aspect" of the violent tornadoes of 30 years ago today. This posting focuses on nascent science of the early 1990's that comprised the building blocks of today's highly-successful tornado warning system.  Dreams of Doppler Scientist Christian Doppler discovered the "Doppler effect" in 1842 which meant -- among other things -- that winds could be measured by radar. That had been a dream of meteorologists during much of the 20th Century.  Early Success in Wichita in 1958 In 1957 and '58, the Weather Bureau installed an experimental Doppler radar at Wichita's (now) Eisenhower National Airport. The second year, on June 10, the radar measured 200+ mph winds associated with the El Dorado, Kansas, Tornado. The hypothesis had been proven: Doppler radar could detect tornadoes. However, that was highly impractical for anything but an experiment.  It wasn't until the last 1970's that technology had advanced t...

Tomorrow is the 30th anniversary of the Wichita-Andover Tornado, one of the most violent and historic tornadoes of the twentieth century.  Shortly after noon April 26, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center issued only its second-ever "strong language" tornado watch. The forecast was for "very damaging tornadoes." Unfortunately, that tornado  watch  (the first of many that day) was exactly correct.   Tornado moving through McConnell AFB With that, we were off. You can read the entire story in the Wichita Eagle . There is also a video which can be accessed by clicking the link in the top image.  This was a huge success for weather science in that a study by the Centers for Disease Control found that the storm warnings prevented 82% of the potential deaths from this terrible storm. Still, 17 people died. I wish to dedicate the story to the memory of the people who perished and to the team at WeatherData, Incorporated who saved so many lives that day.  Par...

This is the NWS's rainfall amount forecast for the next five days. While the highest averaged-amount is five inches, there will be area that have as much as seven inches.  This entire region has had a wet spring. Two day rainfall amounts (to 2pm today) continued to keep soils saturated and stream levels high. Click to enlarge.  I apologize for the poor quality of the basemap but this is the only one I could find with this vital information. Please note the >2" amounts in eastern Oklahoma.  The areas most at risk are: Missouri south of Interstate 70. The northwest half of Arkansas. Eastern Oklahoma. Far southeast Kansas.  I always recommend that people in flood-prone area know how to quickly assemble a "go kit" so that they can evacuate if flood warnings are issued. This would be a good time to prepare. 

There were overnight tornadoes and at least two tornadoes this morning. Below is the tornado forecast for the rest of the day. The brown area has a significant risk of a tornado later today or this evening. Please keep up on the weather in this area when thunderstorms approach.  Addition at 1:30pm CDT:  The three red polygons are current tornado warnings. Unfortunately, the tornadoes have started up again.

I keep reading that vaccination sites are shutting down because people are not getting COVID shots. Unless your physician has counseled you otherwise, please get them. Kathleen and I have had them and suffered no significant ill effects. The sooner we do this, the sooner this nightmare will end. 

Frame capture from Brandon Ivey Video of Yesterday Never stop under bridges due to hail or, especially, during a tornado warning. You risk being rear-ended and injured and, during a tornado warning, you could be killed. 

There is a serious risk of tornadoes south of I-20 Saturday.   The yellow area has a enhanced risk of tornadoes.  The red area has a high risk.  Tornadoes are less common in the morning but they could occur Saturday with the potential of more tornadoes during the afternoon.  Please make sure your family and friends are aware of this potential.