Here is the latest Palmer Drought Index as of Friday. With the recent heavy rains in Tennessee over the weekend, the flood risk is very high from the Ozarks to the Middle Atlantic region if additional heavy rain should fall. 

This is the best photograph of rip currents I have ever seen. I can explain in the photo below. Rip currents slide sideways along the beach. The red circle points to a person in danger. As the current swirls down the beach (blue arrow) the person goes from being in six inches of water to suddenly being in 3-4 feet of water that comes on him or her from an unexpected direction. Sometimes the current can be strong and disorienting. All of the sudden, the person is in a situation they cannot handle.  Most rips are more subtle but this photo -- and some bring water in from two directions -- but, this should give you the idea. When there are rip current warnings out, be very, very careful you observe the pattern of the waves and flow before entering the water. Then, make sure you stay in shallow water. 

[bumped to the top from February 16, 2020] The National Weather Service -- again -- is having severe data problems today. The issues described in this piece have only gotten worse in the past year. The proposed solutions are still the best way forward.  While I have great admiration for the National Weather Service , the agency is dealing with serious issues with few signs of resolution.  Dr. Cliff Mass published an incisive column about one of its issues, specifically, how it is falling farther and farther behind in atmospheric modeling. But, while weather modeling is vital, it is hardly the only serious issue with which the NWS is struggling. It's weather radars were designed in the 1980's and installed in the early to middle 1990's. While they have been upgraded several times, they will not last forever. There is no real plan for their replacement. The proposals to use phased-array radar will, when it comes to tornado detection, be a step backward due to its poor ...

Over the past two weeks there has been a lot of controversy within weather science pertaining to the risk categories used by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. It has even made CNN.  The problem centers around the words used to describe tornado risk and the colors used to portray these risks. The existing system was designed to be used by meteorologists, only. Now that these forecasts are widely used by the public, it is past time to revamp the descriptions of the standards.  I started using a new wording system on this blog and on Twitter in 2020 and have continued it in 2021. I propose it to my colleagues as a new industry standard.  Significant Risk  of a tornado is a 5% chance of a tornado of any intensity. In the above sample, it would be the yellow area.  Enhanced Risk  is a 10% chance. In the above, it would be orange.  High Risk  is a 15% or higher chance of a tornado and  at least one of the tornadoes is expected...

Following up this week of destructive weather, there are a couple of things I would like to share with our readers.... Lesson #1 From Channel 5 in Nashville, There was so much weather to report, you might miss the item I have highlighted -- that two NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) stations were knocked off the air during all of the tornadoes and flash floods. That is why it is essential to have at least three sources of critical weather information. NWR is a great source of information, but it is vulnerable if the power fails or if the data feed from the NWS office to the transmitter is knocked out.  Lesson #2 There are comments in the media and social media to the effect that some were surprised by the extent of the flooding. But, it was very well forecasted! On Friday, On Saturday, This was posted at 1:19pm yesterday and, when you add the amounts forecasted at that time (above) to what had already fallen, the forecast was of excellent quality. The image below is the total rainfall. The ...

I was so excited to read Liftoff ,  which is the story of the creation of SpaceX, that I saved it for my vacation so I could give it my full attention. I wasn't disappointed. It is a story worthy of the company.  My only nit is that I wish author Eric Berger had covered the "Starman" being launched in a Tesla on top of a Falcon Heavy rocket into a orbit around the sun. Given that Starman was followed by twin rockets landing at Cape Canaveral, it seemed like it was well worth covering. You would never have seen NASA do something like that.  I rate the book 4.8 stars. I really enjoyed it and learned a lot. 

[Bumped to top, see new info at bottom] Early this evening, this news about the northwest Georgia tornado broke.  This tornado struck at 12:10am. It could easily have killed more than 200 people based on the population (33,000) and time of day; if there had been no warning.  Thanks to the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) alarms, apps like AccuWeather's , and weather radios that sound an alarm during the night when programmed for your location .people were awakened in time to take shelter. But, none of these would work unless meteorologists had the science and technology to provide accurate and timely information.  Various techniques showed a high risk of tornadoes over northwest Georgia which prompted the NWS's Storm Prediction Center to issue a "mesoscale forecast" (blue polygon). I combined that with the tornado warnings (red polygon), the location of the tornado (blue dot), and my text (below illustration that I included with my 11:30pm EDT update. I circled Newnan f...

We have a flash flood forecast and an updated tornado forecast.  Tornado Risk The tornado risk has been compressed into the yellow and brown areas.  Yellow area is where there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes. Where the yellow is hatched is where strong tornadoes are possible. Brown area is where there is a significant risk of tornadoes.  Flood Risk There is a serious risk of flooding through tomorrow morning in the red and orange areas. Remember: Turn around, don't drown  when encountering flooded areas. Given the tornado and flood risks, it might be a good day to stay close to home and monitor the weather. 

There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes today in the yellow area. Where you see hatching, some of the tornadoes could be strong.  There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  On Thursday, the tornadoes began in the late morning. I don't think that will be the case today. It is more likely to be in the mid-afternoon.  Please keep up on the weather in these areas today and tonight. 

The next seven months are "storm season:" now for tornadoes and, starting May 15, for hurricanes.  Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather  is very much a people story -- of courageous meteorologists who bet their careers to discover and implement the science needed to save thousands of lives every year .  From B&N Goodreads.com is full of tough reviewers; here is a review from  Goodreads ... I picked this book up when I was working on a journal piece dealing with storm shelter access in tornado-vulnerable regions of the country. While I used it for my research, I never sat down and just read it from cover to cover with no need. May 3, a date personal to me and my history with weather, came around, and I picked the book up to read in its entirety and in the order presented. All in all, I enjoyed the ride. While there are some moments in the middle where the science gets a little dry, but the emotions and storytelling connected to the major weat...

Doppler radar can sense rotation in storms but, unless there is lofted debris, cannot directly ascertain whether that rotation has reached the ground. That stated, there was a strong correlation between yesterday's rotation and corresponding tornado tracks (I covered up some noise in NW Georgia; there is also noise just south of downtown Atlanta).  The brighter the colors, the stronger the rotation.  The map shows remarkably long-tracked tornadoes. Pending the completion of the damage survey, the Birmingham NWS office believes that one of the tornadoes may have been on the ground at least 100 miles. This is what we meant when we forecasted "violent, long-tracked tornadoes." Those are important because they are usually the type that cause the most deaths.  The tracks show that Birmingham (B) was struck both north and south of downtown. The suburbs southwest of Atlanta were also struck after midnight -- an extremely dangerous situation given that nighttime tornadoes cause ...

Via The Weather Channel, this is the mayor of Centreville, Alabama, which suffered a tornado of at least F-3 intensity yesterday evening. He gives the praise where it belongs. 

Yesterday was an extraordinary success story for American weather science: numerous, violent, long-track tornadoes in densely populated areas yet a minuscule number of fatalities.  While each of those deaths is a tragedy for their families and friends, without weather science it is  likely there would be a hundred funerals being planned rather than seven. That is especially true since several of the violent tornadoes occurred in darkness. The forecasts and warnings made all of the difference.  I was awakened by the sirens and sheltered in my hallway. I was sheltered when the tornado hit. -- Newnan, Georgia, resident Unfortunately, the mainstream media still doesn't get it. It wasn't "luck" that triggered those phones after midnight -- it was the finely-tuned tornado warning system.  There are several aspects of yesterday's storms I wish to discuss with you.  Safety Recommendations Reviewed The Weather Channel  aired the above photo and it illustrates one o...

This video speaks to the validity of that lightning safety recommendation.  

 $155 billion dollars. This is higher than Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, combined.  The story from AccuWeather .

Considerable serious damage has already occurred in northern Alabama.  Here are the tornado warnings (red) as of 2:45pm.  Note the thunderstorms near the Alabama- Mississippi border? Those storms should strengthen to severe or tornadic during the next hour or two and should cause the next round of tornadoes.  The extreme risk for tornadoes today (see below) remains valid!

This is a rare particularly dangerous situation  tornado watch.  Please monitor the weather throughout these regions until at least 8pm. 

NWS SPC Forecast Tornado Risk Forecast  Updated 11:40pm The "extreme risk" has been expanded Here is the breakdown using my scale.  There is an extreme  risk of tornadoes in the purple area as shown on the NWS's forecast.  There is a high risk of tornadoes in the red region. Violent tornadoes may occur here, as well. There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the orange area. Strong tornadoes may occur in this region.  Finally, there is a significant  risk of tornadoes in the yellow-colored region.  Given this serious tornado situation, I urge you to read and heed the information below. If you live in a mobile home and live in the extreme risk area, you may wish to suggest spending the danger period with a friend who has a trustworthy tornado shelter.  A tornado watch  means you should monitor the weather in your area and be prepared to take shelter at the first sign of a thunderstorm.  Please particular attention to a tornado watc...

 ...demonstrates that carbon dioxide is not needed for the climate to change .

In addition to tornadoes, wind gusts to 80 mph  and hail the size of tennis balls are forecasted to occur.  Please make sure you have a weather radio set to go off for a tornado warning in your area plus an smartphone app like AccuWeather's that will trigger if a warning is issued for your location.  I will have an update on tomorrow's weather situation in an hour or so. 

Here we go again: The red area has a high  risk of tornadoes. Some of which could be violent.  The orange area has an enhanced risk of tornadoes, some of which could be violent. The yellow areas have a significant risk of tornadoes.  The highest risk period is from noon until midnight. I don't think this tornado outbreak will continue into the overnight hours.  I'm more concerned about the risk of violent tornadoes tomorrow than I was with the weather situation like week. It is quite possible we will be talking tomorrow about a rare "extreme" risk of tornadoes. Unlike last week, tomorrow's risk extends well north into Tennessee.  No is the time to prepare.  Please do so. 

The orange area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today and this evening. Please monitor the weather in these areas. There is a major risk of tornadoes in the South tomorrow. I'll have an update on that by around 1pm. 

On March 25, 1918, the worst tornado in the history of the United States occurred across southeast Missouri and across southern Illinois and Indiana. For the first time, we have a forensic examination of this tornado. Please see here and here . 

"Save Uighur, a Chicago NGO, lists 83 companies profiting from Chinese prison camp labor. Among them are Adidas, BMW, Calvin Klein, General Motors, Nike, Jaguar, and Mercedes. Forced organ-harvesting is rampant in these camps.” The full story is here . It is required reading. If you are doing business with these companies, you are indirectly contributing to this horror.

Ah, the Florida beach. But, did you know that climate alarmists predicted they would be gone by now? The New York Times  of September 18, 1995, predicted : “At the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years. They are already disappearing at an average of 2 to 3 feet a year.” Of course, that would have been September 18, 2020. Because of this alarming forecast, I made a personal fact-finding trip to Miami Beach and, as of March 22, the beach is still there and is beautiful.  It is just incredible that climate 'science' makes these outlandish forecasts and the MSM allows them to get away with it. 

  February, 2021, was the 19th coldest February of the last 127 years.  Hopefully, the South is near recovering from last month's extraordinary cold, snow and ice. 

Did you know Walt Disney began his career in Kansas City? The building is known as the Laff-O-Gram Building which is in reference to early Disney cartoons that were short subjects before movies.  I rubbed my hand on the doorframe in homes that a couple of his molecules of genius would rub off on me.  There is an effort to try to make it and/or other of the Disney buildings (his home, for example) into a museum. You can learn more, here . 

While tornadoes do not  aim for mobile homes, it is true they are more dangerous than conventional housing. I would say these, as depicted, are even more dangerous than a conventional mobile home. I would not recommend these if you live in an area where tornadoes are frequent unless there is an underground shelter very close by. 

From the Wichita Eagle: This is a preposterous story written by a reporter "embedded" with the Eagle  to write global warming scare stories.  Let's deal with the contention that Wichita is third worst. Here is the money quote In other words, this isn't even about pollen or air pollution.  As usual, it is a MSM scare story about a warmer climate.  The longer growing season is one of the best aspects of a warmer climate and it has been essential to feeding a hungry world.