Super Bowl 55 tickets must not be selling well in the pandemic.  I came to that conclusion because the Chiefs sent me an email offering tickets. Even though I am a tremendous Chiefs fan, I stopped going to Arrowhead Stadium a decade ago because of the hassles (airline-style searches, absurd parking, high prices, drunks) and because the game can be seen better on HD TV.  For fun, I decided to see what tickets cost when purchased from the NFL.  $16,576 per ticket!?   Sure, I'll just see if Climate Czar John Kerry will buzz over and pick me up on his private jet. Once we get there, I'll buy the popcorn.  I'll be watching on TV, thank you. And, Go Chiefs!!

The National Weather Service's Issues Worsen Here is the correct 7-day precipitation forecast for the Mid-Mississippi Valley. I thought the earlier forecast was "extraordinary" (which is why I labeled it that way). I checked, twice, to make sure it was the forecast for the correct time period and, with at least two major storms in the offing, the forecast was possible. Over the last few months, on far too many occasions, the NWS has released old or incorrect forecasts. The earlier forecast is below. I have not hit this too hard because I have been hoping President Biden would nominate a person to fix the National Weather Service's serious  issues in the near future. That, at least right now, does not appear to be in the offing. So, I'll say it now. The National Weather Service is comprised of an outstanding workforce that accounts for it being able to issue lifesaving tornado warnings like the one for Birmingham earlier this week.  That said, the NWS organization...

 Today is the anniversary of when Kansas was admitted to the Union. 

In the confusion about the tornado warnings in parts of the Birmingham metro area Monday night, I learned that their sirens sound only in the area threatened by the tornado.  That is now true in Wichita, Ft. Worth and many other cities. Selective siren activation will only grow in the coming years as opposed to the old countywide siren activations.  As we roll into tornado season 2021, make sure you know how your sirens are activated. If they do not  go off in an area not  threatened, that is a good thing -- fewer false alarms. 

Due to Monday evening's tornado in Birmingham and from a presentation I made last week, the questions are flowing, Is climate change causing more violent tornadoes? It turns out the reverse is true. Violent tornadoes are much less common than they were 50-70 years ago. The chart below is updated through 2020.  The dashed orange line shows the downward trend of violent tornadoes (F-4 or EF-4 or stronger on the Fujita Scale) since the 1950's. In 2018, we didn't have a single violent tornado anywhere in the United States.  This is one of the benefits of a warmer climate. However, fewer tornadoes and the other benefits do not outweigh the wisdom of decarbonizing our energy supply. 

Update: Mr. Bender has apologized for his "assumptions." You can read it here. But, everything written below is (unfortunately) correct. Lazy reporting.   Here we go again , this time it is Southern Living  with inaccurate, lazy reporting about storms.  "There-Was-No-Warning." Except there was. Seven minutes' worth. Sirens going off. Weather radios going off. WEA activated smartphones and weather apps going off. You can see for yourself in the video below. This Isn't Funny Yesterday, we talked about the NBC Today Show  getting this topic wrong. Now it is Southern Living.  Every journalist in the U.S. seems to have a "function" key set up for the phrase, "there was no warning" on their laptop which they depress after every damaging tornado without even doing rudimentary research to learn if it is true. We meteorologists have enough of a challenge getting everyone to shelter during dangerous tornadoes without the mainstream media inaccurat...

After the Birmingham tornado Monday night, we've seen items like this , emphasizing that the South has a serious risk of strong tornadoes and that the traditional "tornado alley" may be a flawed notion [I agree and have for many years]. Others, like CBS News, are claiming tornado alley has shifted east due to global warming . This hypothesis comes from climate models.  The hypothesis that tornado alley fluctuates geographically is not new. And, the recent rash of damaging tornadoes in the South may be part of a recurring pattern rather than a long-term climatological shift.  It was first proposed in a paper by -- who else -- the great Dr. Ted Fujita in 1975, along with co-authors Allen Pearson and David Ludlum.  Special thanks to Linda Hall Library Early in the paper, Ted wrote, Earlier work by Brown (1933) and Brown and Roberts (1935) did not  emphasize an Oklahoma-Kansas maximum. Instead, the high risk areas, as revealed by maps showing paths, suggested that Arka...

This is the story of last night's life-saving tornado warnings in Alabama If you scroll down a bit, you'll see posted the tornado watch that included the Birmingham metro area. The purpose of a tornado watch is to let you know that you should be monitoring the weather for a possible tornado warning (the signal to take cover) if/when thunderstorms approach your location.  The watch also signaled it was time for emergency managers (one of whom tweeted she was on her way home for the day but was turning the car around and headed back into work), hospitals and others to put their advance plans into effect.  Thanks to the National Weather Service's wise investment in Doppler radar which allows us to see the wind patterns inside thunderstorms, we could see the swirling winds develop inside a thunderstorm moving across the northern suburbs of Birmingham. Below, I've circled the swirl.  The NWS's more recent investment in dual-polarization radar allows us (in this case, the...

A number of meteorologists have been posting their favorite hoarfrost photos online during the past week. Here is mine. I took it along Nebraska Highway 50 in the southeast part of the state. 

Please monitor the weather in this areas the rest of the evening. 

Long-time readers have met my granddaughters, Forecasters Evie and Jilly.  I would like to introduce you to my brand new grandson, Colin. Colin was so anxious to see the Chiefs  defeat the Bills that he arrived a month early. Son and mother are doing great and his papa is extremely proud. Now, Colin will be a big guy in time to watch the Chiefs take on the Bucs in Super Bowl 55. 

Here is the status of drought across the USA.   This was as of Tuesday of last week. The precipitation with the current storms will lessen the drought in the West. Below are the very preliminary amounts of precipitation during the past week. 

This is the status of the winter storm as of 9am. The pink is freezing rain and we are getting reports of light icing from near Kansas City to St. Joseph. 

\ Radar 9:30pm. All of the rain and thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle is moving NNE and will change into snow as it moves into western Kansas.  Forecast Radar at 6am Forecast Radar at Noon There will be an area of light ice accumulation south of the heaviest snow.  This will cause slippery streets.  The forecasts in the posting below are still valid.  This is my final update for the day. 

Based on late data, the area with the red stripes is where blizzard conditions will occur Monday. I believe Interstates 29 and 35 will be closed in southern Iowa sometime during the day Monday. Parts of I-80 might be closed in southeast Nebraska along with Nebraska Highway 50, among others.  Snow Accumulation This will be the biggest winter storm in the region in three years. The purple area is 15 to 18" inch amounts. Isolated spots could have 20 inches.  The NWS winter storm index is very high with the storm. Blizzard conditions possible, especially in the southern half of the red-tinted area.  This is a dangerous storm! If you live in the red area, go to the store now, fill your car and generator with fuel now . At 3:07pm, the very first radar echos are showing up on radar in Kansas and northern Oklahoma.  Things will go downhill from here.  While not a major ice storm by any means, the darker green areas are where there will be enough freezing rain to cause s...

With wind gusts of 30-35 mph and heavy snow, blizzard conditions will occur in northern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, southern Iowa and far northwest Missouri. It wouldn't surprise me if I-29 is closed tonight.  There will also be a band of light freezing rain.

 Here are the latest NWS watches and warnings. Pink = winter storm warning Dark green = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory (lesser condition) Bright blue = avalanche warning Gray = dense fog advisory  Deep green = flood alert Beginning late Sunday afternoon in the High Plains and spreading east late Sunday night and Monday heavy snow will develop over the Great Plains and Midwest.  This is the western part of the storm. The highest shades of blue = 12 to 15 inches of snow.  There could be a spot or two in northeast Kansas, far northeast Missouri or southwest Iowa that could receive 20 inches. In addition, peak wind gusts while the snow is falling will be 40 mph in this same area so blizzard or near blizzard conditions are possible. Here is the forecast radar for 8am Monday. The red-orange shades represent freezing rain which looks like a pretty good bet. What is unclear is whether significant ice accumulation will occur.  The precipitation forec...

 This is simply stupefying . Mind-boggling. At first, I thought it was a hoax.  But, no, multiple news organizations are reporting it. Looks like China is already getting a good return on their investment in bribes to President Biden's family. The New York Post's  bribery story was the one the MSM buried immediately before the election .  Because of his dementia, I suppose Biden wants to earn his stipends from China quickly but the second day?! Even though I knew we would disagree about many political policy items, I was completely sincere when I wished President Biden well on Wednesday . I still do. But, the moratorium on criticism I had planned is now rescinded. There is nothing about allowing the Chinese to be involved in our electric grid that can bring anything good to any American with the exception of the many politicians -- of both parties -- that are in China's pocket. 

“If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth.”                                                             -- President Ronald Reagan

I'm shocked in a good way: Michigan Democrat Rashida Tlaib has called for not  increasing national security powers in the wake of the January 6 riot at the Capitol. Her statement is here . What this means is that she has listened and she gets it: Conservatives and many Republicans fear an implosion of the Bill of Rights. Further restrictions will make our divisions worse. Even better, she wrote a letter to her colleagues that was signed by other members of The Squad .  After September 11, the bipartisan Patriot Act was one of the worst laws Congress has ever passed. It has led to widespread spying on the public by the federal government in blatant violation of the Fourth Amendment and should be repealed.  So, congratulations Rep. Tlaib. Let's hope we can arrest the downward spiral in our politics and find solutions that will bring America to even greater heights.  Addition: Tulsi Gabbard agrees . 

Sitting in my easy chair and looking out my southwest picture window.  Not bad!! The last embers of tonight's fiery sunset.