The end of the "snow day"? The tinted area on the map is where 3 to 6 inches of snow is forecast to occurring beginning Wednesday afternoon continuing into Thursday midday. Please factor this in if you are planning to travel.  Interesting question: With the advent of online education, is this the end of the "snow day"?

Books are a thoughtful gift that can be enjoyed over and over. And, if you are looking for an upbeat, fun read, I suggest my book: Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather .   Warnings  has received outstanding ratings and critical reviews. The two most recent reviews on Amazon: From Barnes & Noble: So, please consider Warnings  if you are looking for a great read for yourself or a friend. 

 There is a significant risk of tornadoes near the Middle Atlantic Coast.  It includes Philadelphia, Washington, Dover, Norfolk and Raleigh. Please monitor the weather as the day progresses. 

The two brown areas is where there is a significant chance of a tornado occurring. The area affecting the Carolinas has the risk of an overnight tornado, which is especially dangerous.  Please keep up on the weather in these regions. 

The Spectator is a publication with high journalistic standards. This brief article , by a pollster, sums up the situation well.  Here is a list of links of credible charges of election irregularities . 

Here is the forecast for the developing winter storm as of 8am Monday. And, here is a forecast of the snow on the ground as of that time. More snow will accumulate during the day accompanied by strong north winds. Please keep this in mind if you are going to travel in the region. 

 

We live in an amazing time: prior to COVID: the lowest level of extreme poverty in the history of humanity, famine nearly a thing of the past, no major wars. While there is still more to do, science is allowing us to get a handle on COVID.  We have a tremendous amount about which to be thankful.  Most of those blessings have borne fruit in the United States because of liberty, property rights and the free enterprise system. I bright young person can choose a career in whatever field he or she believes will bear the most fruit. So, we should always keep in mind: Happy Thanksgiving. 

While this is very preliminary, I want everyone to know there is a possibility of a major winter storm in the Midwest Monday and Monday night. Keep an eye on the weather if you are going to be traveling. 

 One of the funniest things ever seen on television:

Southeast Texas, Louisiana and southern Mississippi have a risk of serious flooding developing late in the week and early next week. Please keep this in mind as you plan your travels and monitor the weather accordingly. 

Snow continues to fall over much of Colorado from the mountains east to the Kansas-Nebraska border. It will gradually move east into this evening and will affect I-70 and I-76. The red area is where a tornado will likely be issued this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are developing from southwest Kansas into the northern Texas Panhandle which will likely cause large hail and may cause a few tornadoes. Please monitor the weather in this area the rest of the day. I will be updating on Twitter @usweatherexpert. 

The subject of this posting is the insect not white Anglo-Saxon Protestants. The United States is in danger of losing the ability to produce anti-venom for wasp and other insect stings . As usual, the government seems to be part of the problem. Even though the United States and Europe now have effective treatments, if we brought over Europe's anti-venom across the Atlantic this fascinating article states: ...The FDA would likely require “multimillion-dollar clinical trials involving sting challenges,” says Golden, referring to the act of intentionally stinging people by holding a yellow jacket, for example, on the arm of a volunteer until it stings them, which comes with the risk of anaphylaxis. “So, we’re stuck,” he says. I recommend reading the entire article if you or someone who know has allergic reactions to insect bites.

So you know where I am coming from, I am a Reagan conservative. That means: Liberty, free enterprise, and the rule of law are paramount. Our huge government is failing us in many ways. We need much smaller, and more effective, government.  But I make one exception pertaining to smaller government: The United States needs a National Disaster Review Board (NDRB) modeled on the National Transportation Review Board. The NDRB would focus on natural disasters and, yes, would include responses to disasters caused by extreme weather whether related to changes in climate or not.  I have written a great deal about this topic.  Part One is here .  Part Two is here . Wired  calling for a NDRB is here . You can find many other of my postings on the topic by doing a Google search. The National Transportation Safety Board, an independent agency, has been an amazing success at making all forms of transportation, especially aviation, far, far safer. The NDRB, if constituted in a...

This just came across my news feed .   While one can debate the merits of whether we need a "climate czar," Mr. Kerry is a poor choice. He is not an original thinker nor has he demonstrated original thinking during his career. He will be a mouthpiece for Big Climate.  So, we can expect more windmills and other failed solutions to the problem. What we need is next generation nuclear and innovative solutions that will emit little or no greenhouse gas while bringing prosperity to the developing world. 

Please note the heavy rain forecast in the South. Flooding may result.   

Details here .  Hat tip: Dave Barry

Today, the Washington Post  published an article pertaining to a number of serious gaps in weather radar coverage across the United States . I have spent considerable time on this topic and I thought it might be helpful to place the locations of the gaps and, as I see it, the priority for filling them.  The two thin circles represent the range of two non-federal radars. The numbers represent the location of gaps and the priority for filling them. I take into consideration, The severity of the gap. Population density. The likelihood of tornadoes and flash floods.  To save money, the gap-fillers can be the far less expensive C-band radars rather than S-band like the primary network radars depicted by yellow on the map.  Beyond the necessity of these radars for storm warnings, the radars can also sense the winds aloft which is a  valuable contribution to more precise weather forecasting, especially in an era of mesoscale modeling . Assuming the land for radar tower...

Since September I have been updating our readers to the increasing probability of major drought over the western half of the United States. The National Weather Service and the National Drought Center have teamed up to make this rather concerning forecast.  The brown areas are already suffering from drought. The yellow areas are where drought is forecast to worsen. The green areas are where dryness conditions are forecast to improve.  The 2021 winter wheat crop has been planted and needs moisture. The developing drought conditions in Nebraska, Kanas, Oklahoma and Texas could be a serious challenge to wheat farmers.  Over the next seven days, things may actually improve a bit.  We'll continue to report on drought and moisture conditions. 

What do we do to stop COVID suffering and economic disruption moving forward? The scientific evidence is absolutely clear: closing schools is a terrible idea. It is past time we use scientific data -- not politicians CYA'ing -- to make vital decisions. Schoolchildren as a group have suffered the most in this pandemic due to have their crucial educations interrupted. This is particularly insane in places like NYC where schools are closed while restaurants, gyms, et cetera, are still open. The statistics show schoolchildrens' risk is a tiny fraction of older peoples.'  Closing schools is just one of the many bad decisions. The doubling-down on masks is another (scroll down to postings below). So, what do we do to get us on the right track? I suggest going on  offense. While I am not a physician, there are some common sense things we can do to get us out of this mess sooner rather than later. These suggestions are a combination of my ideas and those of epidemiologist Dr. Micha...

Skyrocketing suicides are just part of the problem with the COVID precautions. Some are arguing masks are taking away our humanity.  While opinion, this important piece is here . 

 I wasn't expecting the hugely favorable reaction on Twitter to the posting (below) about the latest study that -- yet again -- demonstrates masks, social distancing, etc., don't work.  There is another peer-reviewed study out today that says masks do not work : In this community-based, randomized controlled trial conducted in a setting where mask wearing was uncommon and was not among other recommended public health measures related to COVID-19, a recommendation to wear a surgical mask when outside the home among others did not reduce, at conventional levels of statistical significance, incident SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with no mask recommendation.  One of my readers sent me a link to all of the studies that show the same thing. It was prepared by the Swiss Policy Institute. You can review them here .  Also, there may be less to the number of cases of COVID we are experiencing in the United States than meets the eye. Details here .  I want to be clear: mas...

With all of the governmental nonsense about restricting Thanksgiving and Christmas, I thought it would be a good idea to review the latest science pertaining to masks, "social distancing" and their effectiveness at stopping the spread of COVID-19.  Bottom line: The science continues to show the same results this autumn as it did over the summer and the spring : masks and social distancing do not work.  The newest study was published November 11 in the Journal of the American Medical Association . JAMA is considered the "gold standard" of U.S. peer-reviewed medical journals. The study was conducted on U.S. Marines with the approval of the Marine Corps. The study of Marines using masks, social distancing, strict procedures (separate doors for ingress and egress, etc.) versus Marines who were not was surprisingly rigorous. In the words of the study... During the supervised quarantine, public health measures were enforced to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmissi...

Here is the forecast precipitation for today through Tuesday but most of the rain and snow will fall over the weekend. The band of snow will be across Colorado and northern Nebraska. 

The Indianapolis-based NCAA announced today that a single city -- likely Indy -- will be chosen to hold the entire tournament because of COVID. We in Wichita were certainly looking forward to again hosting the NCAA's men's basketball tournament in March, 2021.  To me, this decision does not make sense.  The health risk to healthy young men around the age of twenty is very low to begin with (see graph), I don't understand the need for a bubble.  What about people older than twenty? People like me (60's) or older or in other high-risk groups should not attend until vaccinated. As of today, the U.S. has registered 11,000,000+ cases. That is projected to be close to 20,000,000 by March based on current trends.  Given  two vaccines are supposed to be available by year's end , and that 80,000,000 are supposed to be able to be vaccinated by March, we have roughly 1/3rd of the U.S. population invulnerable to the disease with the number rising rapidly. If  herd imm...

 [This posting is primarily for meteorologists and weather aficionados.] Five years ago today, the HAZWX model (a company that was later acquired by AccuWeather) made one of the most amazing forecasts I have ever seen. It caused me to change my opinion as to the potential of mesoscale meteorological modeling. While I had seen some good forecasts, they seemed quite inconsistent. I thought the scale of observations available to feed the models was too course create forecasts at a 4 kilometer scale. This forecast caused that opinion to change.  Major tornado outbreaks are rare in November. A high risk in the High Plains in mid-November would have been unprecedented. The 7am NWS Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) forecast (below) showed an enhanced risk of tornadoes near the border of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle with a significant risk (brown) farther north and south.  The HAZWX model, which became available about 11am, forecast something stunningly different: a major outbr...

Hat tip: Gary Sibio. And, from Kansas City...

This tornado watch is in effect until midnight tonight. Damaging winds are likely as well as a few tornadoes.  Please keep an eye on the weather in this region through the evening.  Below is the radar at 5:17pm.

....as seen from my back yard in Wichita. This was at 5:05pm. 

Reed Timmer (@reedtimmer) just sent this photo of towering cumulus clouds over Pittsburg, Kansas, at 4:20pm. At 4:25pm, the first two echos are showing up on radar (circled). I have outlined the area where I believe tornadoes/damaging winds are likely from 6pm to 10pm which includes much of the Ozarks. It is possible tornadoes/damaging winds could occur after 10pm outside of the outlined area.  So, please keep up on the weather in the area from central Missouri into the Ozarks through this evening.