Scientific Analysis: Lockdowns Are Not the Way to Handle Coronavirus

Spiked published an article April 22 a scientific and statistical analysis of the lockdowns versus social distancing. It didn't come to my attention until yesterday. The money paragraph:

This piece tackles that question. As a professional political scientist, I have analysed data from the Worldometers Coronavirus project, along with information about the population, population density, median income, median age and diversity of each US state, to determine whether states that have adopted lockdowns or ‘shelter in place’ orders experience fewer Covid-19 cases and deaths than those which pursue a social-distancing strategy without a formal lockdown. I then briefly extend this analysis to compare countries. In short, I do not find that lockdowns are a more effective way of handling coronavirus than well-done social-distancing measures. [emphasis mine]

The statistical analysis looks solid and I urge you to read the article for yourself and form your own conclusions.

As to my state of Kansas (still locked down), also as of yesterday, the number of deaths is still below the lowered model forecast. As recently as April 7, the model predicted 640 death in Kansas. I'm using Kansas as representative of the central United States. 

Let's take those tragic 119 deaths and compare them to the latest model projection. Here is the wide view:

Now, let's drill down and compare yesterday's death total to the latest prediction from the model.

So, the 119 actual deaths is not only far below the 144 predicted, they are barely within the model's lower range!

You'll remember that the justification for the lockdown was to make sure the healthcare system was not overwhelmed ("let's flatten the curve"). Let's look at that.

The results are breathtaking in a bad way. Given the purpose of the lockdown and forbidding elective surgery was to insure the hospitals were not overwhelmed, the question was whether it was needed in the first place? Not only are Kansas (and other central U.S. states' hospitals) far, far from being overwhelmed, Wesley's Woodlawn Hospital in Wichita, a full service hospital, has completely closed for lack of patients (its ER continues in operation).

Here is CNN's county-by-county case map from yesterday.

The white counties have five or fewer cases. In Kansas, most of the white counties have zero or one case and I can't find any deaths in the white counties.

Here is the NYC area:

Yes, NYC and the surrounding areas (total 27 million people) are, unfortunately, having severe problems. Those problems are the focus of the media, based in NYC which is distorting the reporting of the situation of the nation as a whole and, I believe, distorting both policy and the response.

Per the NYT tracker, here is a comparison of NYC versus the Wichita.
Location                  Cases/100,000People                   Deaths/100,000People
NYC                          1837 cases/100K                              135 deaths/100
Sedgwick Co KS        65 cases/100K                                  1 death/100K
Sedgwick Co. (population 513K) is the county that contains Wichita.

Treating the South, Midwest, and Great Plains like NYC is both unscientific and destructive. Away from the densely populated areas on the coasts, the lockdowns should stop immediately.