Here is the total rainfall. And, here is the departures from normal rainfall in inches. Moisture is, overall, adequate or more than adequate. In central Kansas, a major wheat producing area, the 60-day rainfall is about normal due to rain and snow earlier in the winter.

I was amused to see this story in The New York Times  last week. Isn't this the same paper that published these in the aughts? Big Climate and Big Environment make the same mistake over and over and over: they assume a world of the status quo that completely discounts human ingenuity. Of course, Times  isn't alone. They printed this article about President Jimmy Carter that predicted the world would be completely out of oil between 2001 and 2010. So, take a deep breath. The environmental movement is wrong about almost everything when it comes to their "gloom and doom" predictions.

The job of the TSA is to keep dangerous objects off of airplanes. Its job is not  to track the movement of the citizenry and legal immigrants. So, I object to RealID on First Amendment grounds, especially since the US Supreme Court has found Americans have a right  to travel. So, the news that RealID is being pushed back a year (to October 1, 2021) is somewhat welcome. I suspect the real reason is the DHS realizes that people are not exactly flocking to DMV's across the nation with the mound of paperwork it requires -- especially since you can still travel with your passport -- even with RealID in effect. My opinion? Congress needs to intervene and get rid of RealID.

Yesterday, I wrote about the lives saved by Saturday's advance tornado watches and warnings . Today, I want to talk about how private sector weather companies made a major difference when that swarm of tornadoes struck the Mississippi Valley region. Below, via Trainorders.com, is a photo of a high-priority train blown over Saturday near Jonesboro, Arkansas. At first glance, it may even appear to be some type of failure of the warning system. It just the opposite. This train is one of the highest priority, and fastest, trains the Union Pacific runs. Because of a timely tornado warning from AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, the train was stopped because of the approaching tornado. When the tornado struck, because the train was stopped, the crew was safe in the interior of the locomotives (if the track had been damaged, the locos could have derailed at high speed causing serious injuries). And, the cars merely blew over. Look at the track in the photo. It is pristine. So, the sa...

These people are heroes -- every single one of them. Thank you!! But, the shutdown of our society is creating great clarity as to what is valuable and what is not. More on that topic, here .

...or, if you have had the impulse to shelter in a car. Via Twitter This is what Saturday's Jonesboro Tornado did to an auto or truck. They are unsafe in tornadoes!

The fact there were violent tornadoes and zero fatalities was a testament to the value of our tornado warning system.  As long-time readers of this blog know, I like to review events where we've made forecasts of high-impact weather. A violent tornado struck northeast Arkansas yesterday, including a strike on the City of Jonesboro. There was extensive, severe damage. This violent tornado is rated EF-3 and, maybe, EF-4 intensity . [Note: the damage survey has been finished and it was an EF-3.] Why you should be in indoor shelter during a tornado. Imagine one of those pieces of metal slicing through you at 150 mph! Take a look at what happened to this USPS truck after the tornado flung it through the air. Via Twitter In spite of the violence of this tornado, there were only six minor injuries.  Some are pointing out the sheltering-in-place for the coronavirus helped. Undoubtedly it did because people at home can more easily, and quickly, monitor the weather...

This is really well done.  BTW, if you like single artist covers of songs, I found this version of Frankie and the Four Seasons' December, 1963,  to be very well done, also.

National Geographic Big Climate will never stop. It is relentless in its quest for power and money. And, the fact they are using children as propaganda tools demonstrates the lengths to which they will go to attain their goals. We cannot give them power.

President Reagan knew that small business was the lifeblood of the economy and did everything he could to empower it. I started WeatherData, Inc., my highly successful commercial meteorology company, in the first six months of his administration. After he left office, about all I, and my entrepreneur friends, got from Washington was request for donations. I remember one day, with severe weather in progress and as I was on the forecast floor, picking up the phone (after my assistant said it was urgent) and it my was congressman asking for a rather large donation. You may not be aware of " party dues ." It is the system where a new congressmen arrives at the Capitol, is sworn in, and is immediately in debt. The amounts of money are in dispute but I am told for the newest members is around $150,000/year. If you raise more, you get better committee assignments, et cetera. So, to a large extent, all of the fund raising calls are understandable. In the current crisis, it is...

I am appalled that Associated Press published this photograph  yesterday. Those are active railroad tracks  (you can tell by the polished rails). Over and over and over people die needlessly because they are on, or are very close to, tracks. Please don't be one of them!

Don't these people ever watch James Bond movies? Don't they ever watch a disaster movie that begins with a warning from a scientist not  to do something? Seriously: we don't know how to control the weather and I guarantee there will be serious, negative, unintended consequences if this is done. Decreasing earth's temperature seems to increase  the amount of storminess around the world.

NWS SPC has upgraded the tornado risk area and sharpened it a bit. The yellow area is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and the hatching means strong tornadoes are possible. The brown is a significant risk of a tornado. Please keep up on the weather across this area the rest of today and tonight.  Please follow me @usweatherexpert  on Twitter for updates.

The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Please monitor the weather as the day progresses in this area.

Update: Please cancel the forecast below.  Any threat of violent winds has ended.  There is a marginal chance of thunderstorms with damaging winds and, literally, a brief tornado or two in the area outlined. The tornado threat will not occur until near and an hour or two after sunset. There is a chance of scattered areas of large hail over much of Kansas tonight.

comment on Twitter about the coronavirus social isolation Agree completely. Months from now, when all of this is over, President Trump will need to take a look at all of this nonsense, including the TSA, but now is not the time.

On top of the coronavirus raging, we are moving toward the peak of tornado season, with tornadoes forecast in a small part of the Great Plains Monday (I'll cover that on the blog tomorrow). Since your local bookstore may be closed, both of my books are available in print or e-book. If you don't have a Kindle, you can get the  free   Kindle Cloud Reader . With the Kindle Reader, you can use your computer to read the books just like paper copies.  My book, Warnings ,  may be the perfect book for this crisis. It is the uplifting  story of how heroic meteorologists risked their reputations and careers to build the tornado, hurricane and aviation warning systems that save literally thousands of lives each year. The link will take you to the e-book version which contains extra photos we couldn't get into the print version. When the Sirens Were Silent   is the story of the 2011 Joplin Tornado and how the rare failure of the tornado warning system. That f...

And, the second...

No, Daily Mail ,  in the United States, generals do not  govern the nation if something happens to the President and Vice President. There is -- in law -- a succession list if something were to happen to President Trump (e.g., he died from COVID-19). Here is the list of Presidential succession. For years(!)  I have been advocating dispersing the federal government (see here , among many others). The abundance of good reasons for doing so is only enhanced by  COVID-19. For example, Sedgwick Co. (which includes Wichita) has a population of 513,289 and yet has just a single case of COVID-19 while, at the same time, hospitals are seriously threatened from Washington to New York. If the Department of Agriculture was here (as I propose), the Secretary of Agriculture, who is in the line of succession, would be able to function more easily than his counterparts in the District of Columbia as it is unlikely a crisis would affect all locations of the United States simulta...

Looking for a great book while you are avoiding people? In this situation where we are trying to ramp up production of medical equipment, the story of how we ramped up production during World War II is not only pertinent, it is fascinating. When Freedom's Forge  came out in 2003, it was one of the rare books I couldn't put down. You probably think, how could a story about industry during a war be fascinating? Author Arthur Herman did a great job of weaving in the people (especially Bunky Knudson) who used their ingenuity to not only produce the greatest military force the world has ever known yet still produced a reasonable number of civilian washing machines, automobiles and other goods. Five Stars!

Bumped and updated: The endowments of Harvard+Yale+Stanford+Princeton =  More than a Quarter of a Trillion Dollars (before market crash) There will be many, many losers in all of this but universities and other 'non-profit' institutions will be among the top. While there are dozens of stories about taxpaying businesses performing heroically, institution after institution has behaved abysmally in this critical situation. I came close to posting a quote from a university administrator who "laughed out loud" when asked if he would be giving refunds for unused room and board this semester.  Given the fact their students are going to get a taste of distance learning, their awful behavior (which has been going on the last two decades behind the scenes) will be out in the open for all to see.  It is way past time for Congress to start taxing the endowments and to begin setting limits on them.  -- original posting --  What?! The Met has a tax-f...

...have you thought about a model train set?  Lionel , and others , make some incredible sets that require little wiring and zero technical expertise. If you purchase a set, get enough extra track to have a switch and siding. It greatly increases the play value. Just to let you know, most of the train and hobby shops are small businesses that could really use your support right now. And, almost all of them ship. Of course, some of us have gone far beyond a basic train set.

There are two areas of tornado risk. The yellow is the area of enhanced  risk.  Brown is the area of signifiant tornado risk. If you are in either area, please keep up on the weather the rest of the day and this evening. 

This is a perfect illustration of why "social distancing" is vital! Please, please follow this advice and we'll be through this much faster with a much better result.  Thank you, Dr. Oz. 

The above sign couldn't be more apropos.  The "second guessing" has already begun. See this column by Dennis Prager . It is my opinion that column was written so he can point to it later and say, "I was right!" It is obvious that Mr. Prager has never been in a precedented (i.e., has never occurred in modern times) situation where there are dozens of unknowns. Scott Adams, the creator of "Dilbert" has the perfect reply. Are there dumb ideas floating around? Yes. The idea that Boeing should get $60 billion from the taxpayers to fix its incompetence  (like TARP did for the banks, we don't need to repeat that awful mistake) is ridiculous. There are, I'm sure, many others. That is why President Trump and his team are taking their time making these decisions. Will some or many be flawed? Certainly. But, that is the nature of war and we are at war against coronavirus. As many know, I don't personally care for Mr. Trump. But, he is our...

There is an enhanced tornado risk Thursday for the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley. Please check back tonight and tomorrow morning for more specific forecasts.

Weather science has learned a great deal from social science pertaining to how people react in pressure storm warning situations. I'm listing the lessons meteorologists have learned, in no particular order, in case they are helpful in the cornonavirus (CV) situation.  Stop telling people, "don't panic." It is both patronizing and unhelpful. Social scientists know genuine panic is rare. When does it occur? Two situations: a) When people's lives are threatened and they don't know how to save them; and b) When something prevents people from taking the measures they know are needed to save their lives or things dear to them. Want to prevent panic? Then, tell people what they need to do and enable them to do it.  There seems  to be a developing gap between what we are being told about CV and the actual situation. Last week, we were being told CV is 6-9 times more contagious than regular flu and 10 to 25 times more lethal. Various publications stated this would...

Yosemite is one of the most beautiful places on earth. If you need a bit of beauty while you are stuck indoors, the link to the Yosemite Falls webcam is here .

How things change!