Please factor this forecast into your Halloween Plans. The brown area is a significant risk of tornadoes. The yellow area is an enhanced risk. If you live in these regions, it is important you keep up on the weather in your area. If I lived in these areas, I would call off trick-or-treating if a tornado watch is in effect at that time. There is also a high risk of damaging winds in the purple area.  On this forecast, yellow is a significant risk of thunderstorm-related gusts of 60 mph or higher. Red is an enhanced risk and purple is a high risk. In addition to all of that, lightning will be a hazard.

Here is the latest flu risk map from Diseasecast . If you haven't done so, please strongly consider getting vaccinated against the flu.  Flu kills far more people than drunk drivers. According to PublicHealthCorps.org, last year 79,000 people died of flu in the United Stats versus 10,585 due to drunk drivers.  Only 37% of people get vaccinated. Please consider getting vaccinated.  And, if someone gets the flu anyway, the best products for combating it are here .

click to enlarge Extremely critical wildfire conditions are forecast for the purple areas from 5am Thursday, Halloween, to 5am Friday.

Did you know the U.S.A. (Lower 48) set an all-time October cold temperature of -35°F at Logan Canyon, Utah, yesterday. Or, that it was even colder there today? Or, that it was a record cold weather balloon launch in Grand Junction, Colorado? Or, that Denver set a record low of 6° 3° this morning? Of course you didn't. That is because it is not part of global warming 'narrative.' Below is one hour  of records or temperature readings within one degree of record from earlier this week. As indicated below , the problem in the United States has been cold, not warmth. I am not saying we are undergoing some great cooling. My point is that this is not being covered, at all, in the mainstream media. Regardless that Big Climate wants you to believe 'the science is settled,' it certainly is not. Addition:

I live in Wichita in the Central time zone. More and more, I am persuaded that our friends and fellow citizens in the Eastern time zone aren't aware of how time zones work. Headline from yesterday. This isn't the first time recently I've seen this suggestion. This past summer, some researchers at Johns Hopkins thought eliminating time zones was a good idea . Presumably, the rest of us would be on Eastern time, where Johns Hopkins is located. Then, this morning, I was awakened by a very early call. Turns out the representative of this company, based in Columbus, was completely unaware (I asked her) that Kansas is in a different time zone than Ohio. Before my retirement, this was a periodic issue working with a corporate home office in the Eastern time zone for 12 years. Actual dialog: Home office: Okay, let's meet tomorrow at eight.  Mike in Wichita: You realize that's 7am here?! Home office: What? Mike in Wichita: We are in the Central time zone. Tha...

Click to enlarge The purple area is the highest rated fire danger forecast the National Weather Service makes. Please be extremely cautious in this area. 

From a blunt article about California's present and future: Thanks to the tens of billions of dollars in liabilities from the wildfires last year, PG&E has filed for bankruptcy. The utility’s bankruptcy has been a source of absolute chaos. It looks like PG&E shareholders will likely be completely wiped out. It is unlikely that any new controlling party will bring the utility back from the dead. So Californians should not discount the possibility that being without power is their new normal. No one seems to know how the utility is going to survive at this point, and that’s a big problem for the millions of people they support.  The incredible irony in all of this is that the green state of California has been keeping the lights on during this period with privately procured generators running on… wait for it… fossil fuels. Believe it or not, the situation is likely even worse than depicted above .  Kansas The Kansas Flint Hills Give some serious thought t...

As many of you know, I am a "lukewarmer" -- I believe the planet is warming but at a slower rate than many believe and that the effects of the warming, when netted out (e.g., the items you are never told about by the media, such as greater food production due to a warmer climate), will not be all that severe. I also, frequently, state that global cooling would be a catastrophe for mankind. However, I have not forecasted cooling. That stipulated, here is a piece from scientists I respect that believe cooling is beginning. I suggest you read it because it outlines their evidence. Are they correct? It is hard to tell. It is difficult to detect a recent short-term (the length of time of that any worldwide cooling trend that may have begun) cooling trend because the world data has been ' adjusted ' to death; in some cases unethically . In the United States, we are fortunate to have a "gold standard" temperature sensing network in all 50 states that does n...

Most of Ventura and parts of Los Angeles Counties are in the "extremely critical" wildfire danger category.  More fires are already occurring. In the case of the Getty Fire, police are going door-to-door to get people to evacuate. Traffic is a "nightmare" on the 405 freeway. Los Angeles Times It is a day to be extremely cautious in the Southland.  Addition:  The Los Angeles Times  just removed its paywall pertaining to Getty Fire coverage. 

A brand new review at Amazon : I would recommend that all weather geeks, meteorologists, forecasters, emergency management personnel, storm spotters and chasers read Mike Smith's uplifting tome on weather warnings. All info presented was thoughtful and pragmatic and historically accurate -- A great read. Mr. Smith is also a great writer.  And, the review immediately before: I expected this book to be interesting. But, I didn't expect it to be such a page-turner. I couldn't put it down. The writing is excellent. It has a good pace and kept me coming back for more. I love reading about weather, but I can't say too many meteorology books have had me up min the middle of the night saying, "just one more chapter!" This one did. The specific storm stories weave together the topics perfectly. I want to deliver a free copy to anyone who snakes about the weatherman never getting it right. They just don't understand. This book shines a l...

Critical fire danger is in red. The purple area is designated "extremely critical. That includes areas to the north and northeast of downtown Los Angeles.

Until 5am PDT Monday.  The purple area is described by SPC as "extremely critical" with the red "critical" Here is a wider view.

Here are three maps from AccuWeather to brief you on the upcoming change to winter weather. Please monitor the weather in your area as the week progresses.

Use the relatively warm weather now to prepare for winter-like conditions throughout the Central U.S. by mid-week. A major cold front will be moving through the nation the next couple of days and it will be huge changes in temperature. The blue line is the position of the cold front as of 4pm Sunday. Note temperatures in the 20s of the northern High Plains.  By Monday afternoon, the slow-moving front will bring high  temperatures in the 20's as far south as Kansas. The consequence of all of this will be a cold and, possibly, snowy Halloween in a large part of the central United States. The green are is where the National Weather Service is forecasting accumulating snow from 7am Thursday to 7am Friday. I'll update the forecast over the next couple of days. 

The snow in the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma set records for heavy snow so early in the season. Arnett, Oklahoma, in northwest Oklahoma, had eleven inches. To the east of the snow, the textured white is clouds.

Someone in the National Weather Service made an amusing list of weather-related Halloween costume ideas. So, if you have been on the fence about how to dress Thursday, here you go. It will be a cold Thursday evening in most of the nation. Please check the forecast as you make your plans for your children's trick-or-treating.  Addition: Here is a forecast of temperatures for late next week. 

The Wichita Eagle  is my hometown newspaper. Secretary of State Pompeo, also from Wichita (and a very smart man, I've met him a couple of times), was in town today with Ivanka Trump to meet with (the brilliant) Dr. Sheree Utash of Wichita State University. Ivanka and Sheree are on the President's workforce development team. They are also touring our aircraft factories to see 21st Century manufacturing techniques. The Eagle  is currently running a headline on its website I immediately thought was questionable: I know Mike well enough that I thought it was highly unlikely he'd say that about a question. Sure enough, he did not. In the interview itself: Eagle:  And what good really is the word of the U.S. in light of the president’s treatment of the Kurds? Has that undercut U.S. credibility? Pompeo:  The whole predicate of your question is insane.... See the difference? Yet, in the headline, "Your question is insane" is in quotation marks which mea...

Dr. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington has produced another outstanding essay on global warming that is a must read . While I tend to be incrementally less concerned than Cliff, we absolutely agree on the actions we should be taking.* The actions we should be taking are: New generation nuclear. Nuclear fusion.  Building a more resilient society.  But, the extremists are getting in the way of actual solutions. Please read Cliff's piece. *With the exception of a carbon tax because I don't trust the politicians with a new tax. 

We  are supposed to reduce our carbon footprints. The people with the giant carbon footprints think it is "do as I say, not as I do."

Controversy pertaining to the  Dallas Tornado and its warning.  Let's sort through the issues. 1. The first is that the official NWS warning was issued two minutes after the tornado touched down. This is true but not the main point. Their tornado watch for Dallas was issued nearly two full hours before the tornado touched down. It forecast a major tornado risk. Others were emphasizing the tornado threat , including yours truly, before the tornado touched down. 2. Next, the  Ft. Worth Star-Telegram  continues with the "no warning" theme. It is true that the NBC station, carrying the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football,   didn't initially interrupt the game . The station, KXAS TV, has acknowledged its mistake of not interrupting. But, it turns out the people in question were warned. Here is a quote from the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram's  story: "We got a warning on our cellphones but that was it." A tornado warning is a tornado warn...

For those that follow tornado meteorology closely here is some information about informing yourself via radar which supercell thunderstorms tend to produce tornadoes. One of the things we look for is a supercell thunderstorm that makes a "right turn" relative to both the other storms in the area and its original path. Using Sunday's Dallas thunderstorm as an example, here are some illustrations. Things were starting to become clear at 7:26pm Sunday evening as the northern storm was moving (relatively) rapidly northeast while the storm to its south was slowing. The "left-mover" (the northern storm) typically produces large hail while a right turning southern storm is more likely the tornado producer. A half-hour later, at 7:58, the northern storms moved rapidly to Valley View while the southern storm over Tarrant County has slowed down and begun its right turn). About fifteen minutes later the northern storm is getting ready to cross into Oklahoma whi...

"Without warning" is fake news and the journalists that wrote this headline should be ashamed of themselves. Here is the forecast that was posted on this blog at 10am yesterday, 11 hours before the tornado. North Dallas was in the "enhanced" tornado risk area. That forecast was reiterated throughout the day. This tweet was 40 minutes before the tornado. One minute before the tornado touched down. Note that it cited "NW Dallas" as the threat area. Two minutes later as the tornado was touching down. Here is the warning: In addition, the DFW TV stations were cutting in with storm warnings, weather radios were going off and smartphones were sounding alarms. To claim the tornado struck "without warning" is simply absurd. Some were appreciative of the warning effort. So, don't believe it when the media reflexively writes "no warning" seemingly after every tornado. Trust the warning system to provide forecasts a...