Hurricane Dorian Update: Wednesday, 5pm EDT

By -
All of the reliable computer models place landfall of what is forecast to be major hurricane Dorian on the central or south Atlantic coast of Florida during the latter half of the Labor Day weekend. It is still too soon to state exactly where on the coast landfall will occur.

4:45pm radar image of Dorian.

Below is the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast. The outline represents the average error of their forecasts and they consider the entire area within the white outline to be at risk.
click to enlarge
My personal opinion is that the storm will make landfall between Miami and St. Augustine as a major hurricane. Serious inland flooding is likely to occur with this storm in many areas of Florida. Tornadoes are likely, as well.

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.

Here is the earliest reasonable time of arrival of sustained winds of 35 mph or higher.

Excellent advice from meteorologist Brad Panovich.

There is a significant chance Dorian will emerge over Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that it could reintensify and be a significant theat to the northern Gulf coast. However, it is too soon to make a specific forecast at this point. 
What to do now?

Given it is a holiday weekend, you may wish to consider getting out of Dodge before an official evacuation starts and roads become jammed. Close down the home (turn off electricity, water, board up windows, etc.) and go somewhere like Atlanta well out of harm's way. Make a reservation now. Let Mother Nature do her thing without you and your family harm's way. 

If that is impractical, then I urge you to consider the following:
  • If you want a generator,  have an electrician install it. If you decide on a portable generator, make sure to place it outside well away from any air intakes. 
  • An automobile power inverter is very handy for charging your cell phone and laptop. 
  • Prepare for evacuation now if you live within in a coastal county. Obtain paper road maps. 
  • If my intensity forecast is correct, there will be widespread power failures and power will be out for days or even a week or two. 
  • Very good chance your electric can opener will not work in a hurricane (the power will fail). Make sure you have plenty of canned goods (they don't spoil) and have manual can openers and bottle openers. 
  • Get extra cash from the ATM. Credit cards will not work without power.
  • Keep your automobile filled with fuel. 
Some of the computer models have Dorian crossing the Florida Peninsula and out into the Gulf of Mexico. It is too soon to know if that is a likely outcome. However, if you live anywhere in Florida or along the Alabama or Mississippi coast, please continue to monitor the situation. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more