9am Update on (Forecasted) Hurricane Barry

By -
Life threatening flooding and 
power failures are likely. 

 Scroll Down For Updated Information For
New Orleans as of 12:30pm CDT

The weather system that is forecasted to become Barry is still a mess this morning.

However, conditions are still very favorable for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting the system to reach hurricane strength and move inland along the Louisiana coast.
H = hurricane. S = tropical storm
Torrential rains will cause major flooding, especially with the already wet conditions.
New Orleans is in a perilous situation potential Mississippi River flooding magnified by the heavy rains and likely storm surge if this is an accurate forecast.

I've also noticed something that concerns me. It comes from the ECMWF model which is usually the most accurate in these situations and that is the winds do not decrease as the storm moves across Louisiana. Below is a map of the forecast wind gusts.
There are several areas of gusts in the 75 to 85 mph range both along the coast and inland. In New Orleans, again stipulating a perfect forecast, the gusts are expected to be around 60 mph.

Given the already wet conditions and forecast heavy rains, large numbers of trees will be blown over and power failures could be both geographically widespread and could last for days. With the mid-summer sun angle and humidity, heat stress will be a serious issue in the wake of the storm without air conditioning. With rainfalls of 15+" in some areas, there will be extensive flooding which will make repair of the electrical grid extremely challenging. Please prepare accordingly.
--- Updated Mississippi River Data ---
The NWS and the Army Corps of Engineers has lowered the forecast Mississippi River crest from 20'  (the height of the levees) to 19 feet. While New Orleans is not out of the woods completely, let's hope this trend holds. That stipulated, please note the cautions, below:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more