Please vote there is a "moderate" chance of strong (EF2+) tornadoes overnight. This watch includes much of Louisiana and small parts of southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi. Make sure you have a way of receiving tornado warnings during the night.

This tornado watch in effect during the traditional "trick or treat" hours.  The watch includes Houston, Tyler, Shreveport and Texarkana. There is a "moderate" chance of tornadoes along with the threat of lightning, hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. Please factor this into your plans for the evening and have a way of receiving weather warnings. 

Ginger Zee on school bus flooding . Thanks for the shout-out, Ginger!

This just in from the fashionistas, we now have a "climate change dress." I guess it is to "raise awareness" of global warming. The colors are supposed to represent global temperatures. You can learn more here . Perhaps you can get it shipped in time to trick or treat as a "global warming monster."

I highly recommend this blog posting from the Victory Girls . 

Poor advice pertaining to nutrition has caused obesity across the United States. The Los Angeles Times  has a well-done article about the issues in nutrition. Unfortunately, the crisis of credibility in science is not limited to nutrition.

An EMP Attack Would Take the United States Back to the 1870's Without  the Infrastructure  We Had in the 1870's. Millions Will Die. A Carrington-Type Solar Storm or  an EMP attack would destroy the electrical power grid. With our "just-in-time" inventories, etc., there would be no electricity, no water, no sewage treatment, and food would run out very quickly. In winter there would be no heat and no air conditioning in summer. Hurricane Maria, by itself, has caused major problems with medicine supplies. Society will quickly break down.  Get the picture?  Here is a summary of a recently declassified report .  I have sent emails to my congressional delegation. I urge you to do the same. This issue must be addressed with the highest urgency. 

You can see more of B.C.   here .

The Aquifer is vital to farming in the Great Plains but it is being drawn down at an unsustainable rate. Here is an article about changing farming methods in a way that also allows farmers to prosper.

I've had a number of discussions on Twitter today with people concerned about global warming. Regardless of what you may think or know about this issue, I want to state the following bit of rock solid science: The earth-ocean-atmosphere system will never  be in equilibrium. It has never been in equilibrium and it will not be in the future.  There are too many internal and external forcings. For example, solar flares and volcanoes are two completely natural phenomena that drive changes. Humans add greenhouse gases and create land use changes (to name two) that destabilize the system. The idea (expressed twice today) that we will go into some sort of equilibrium if we reduce greenhouse gas is scientifically incorrect.

These are extremely unfortunate.  *They were put up by a street artist.  Note: this is revised from the original posting as of 8pm Friday. The Sanitation Department is now taking them down. Mayor de Blasio has not condemned them. I have travelled to NYC for business and pleasure and have always enjoyed myself. We took our children for Christmas 2001 after Mayor Giuliani requested people to "stay in a [NYC] hotel, go out to dinner and see a show" to help its economy after the horror of September 11. Apparently, the government of NYC has forgotten those acts of goodwill of ours and so many others' . See above. However, it speaks volumes that the mayor has not condemned them.

That the number of major tornadoes is decreasing is a topic we've covered on numerous occasions. Here is a comprehensive article on the subject along with some rather surprising findings pertaining to temperatures in the United States. 

West Nile is a very serious disease, borne by mosquitos, as reported here . The article was published earlier today. Here is Ascel Bio's latest forecast for mosquito-borne illnesses: You can get the latest forecasts for the risk of flu, mosquito-borne illnesses and others here:  diseasecast.com .

This time we have 12 years to prevent climate disaster . Two years ago, it was "100 days to save the world." We're still here. And, two years ago, the goal was limiting warming to 2° to save the world (the " two °" in the graphic). Now, it is a 1.5° goal because temperatures are not climbing nearly enough to exceed the two degree value and without lowering the goal they couldn't even claim there is a crisis. In 2013, we published the article below, Tipsy From Tipping Points : Every one of these (and more) represented some 'scientist(s)' proclaiming another "tipping point" that we didn't dare pass without destroying the earth. Of course, it is 5+ years later and we are here and doing fine. Come on! I suspect that one of the many institutes for global warming 'communications' (e.g., here ) did a focus group a decade or so ago and found "tipping point" tested well. The problem is they have gone way past

This is an excellent article for non-scientists to understand how peer-review publishing works . I will add one other problem: the reviewers (the cake tasters) are members of the "club." Even though this is science, very few people outside of the political and scientific (yes, both) mainstream are asked to review articles. So, truly innovative concepts are more difficult to get published than they should be.

It is 37 minutes in length (no commercials) and I strongly recommend it.

As this blog has reported on several occasions, the quality of data pertaining to global warming is, at best, poor. If you would like to read more on the latest audit of that data, go here .

This outbreak is serious . Please get your children vaccinated.

At least at 9:30pm CDT yesterday evening, Warnings  was down to $15.00 at Amazon. Yesterday night I received an email from a reader who wrote: it is a fantastic story of the weather and your life So, pick up a copy. Get extras for Christmas gifts. I'm not sure when it will be this inexpensive again.

Too many people are getting killed along railroad tracks in America. Below is an example from Saturday afternoon in Flagstaff, Arizona. The man is standing right next to one set of tracks as a train passes. Had a train been coming from the opposite direction, he would likely have been killed. The noise of the first train could have prevented him from hearing a second train approaching. A woman was killed in June standing too close to the tracks in Colorado as a train approached. You can see her a second before her death in light colored-clothes on the right side of the tracks. Please stay away from tracks and teach your children to do the same!

By definition: if it isn't reproducible, it is not "science." 

The mob has confronted another Republican politician in a restaurant. This time, it was Senator Mitch McConnell in Louisville. The woman shooting the video (which is here ) says, "I'm going to sell it to TMZ." To me, that brings up the question: "Are some of these set-ups for monetary gain?"

Where is Dave Barry when you need him? A giant colon has gone missing in Kansas City. Kansas City Star When a giant colon came to Miami, this is how Dave began one of the most (tears running down your eyes due to laughing so hard) hilarious columns ever. If you are a professional humor writer, and there is a giant colon within a 200-mile radius, you are legally obligated to go see it. So I went to Miami Beach and crawled through the Colossal Colon. I wrote a column about it, making tasteless colon jokes. But I also urged everyone to get a colonoscopy. I even, when I emerged from the Colossal Colon, signed a pledge stating that I would get one. Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/living/liv-columns-blogs/dave-barry/article1928847.html#storylink=cpy If you want to laugh, the rest of that column is here .

Here is the rainfall of the last two weeks. It has rained in Abilene the last eight days. And, here is the forecast for the next seven days.

Thanks to KOCO TV for this easy-to-read map showing where influenza cases are occurring. We've already had two flu-related deaths in Kansas. Where is flu most likely to occur next? Here is the flu forecast map from Ascel Bio . (c) 2018, Ascel Bio Please get immunized especially if you are in the higher risk areas.

click to enlarge While my home in Wichita is in a very low risk for a major earthquake, it is important to realize that it isn't just the I-5 corridor of California that is at high risk. The I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston is at high risk as is the area from Atlanta to Charlotte. Do you have earthquake insurance?

Over my dead body... Heck, they can't keep their existing promises . 

As clearly stated below, this blog posting was based on Seth Borenstein's story about the Gensini and Brooks study. The story  states (link below): Because tornadoes sometimes go undercounted, especially in the past and in less populous areas, scientists don't like to study trends by using counts of tornadoes. I have since heard from Dr. Gensini and I have read the paper itself. They do  count number of tornadoes and the story is clearly incorrect. My objection as to the conclusions of the paper itself stand. They are: Back to Dr. Ted Fujita in the 1970's, there has been speculation about an east-west cycle regarding tornado maxima. It wish this study had referenced his work and commented on it. Forty years is too short a period of time in and of itself and, because,  From 1979 to 1996 (release of Twister ) tornado chasing was restricted to the Great Plains which might have had the effect of inflating tornado numbers versus the areas farther east where tornado

There is an amazing list of speakers for Chasercon 2019 to be held at the Hyatt Regency Wichita the weekend of February 8 -10.  The speakers are: 1) Tim Marshall 2) Dr Greg Forbes 3) Dr Jason Persoff 4) Roger Edwards  5) AccuWeather expert on commercial meteorology and severe storms There will be special panel discussion, details soon to follow.  Sunday morning, Jon Davies is doing a "forecasting for chasers" class that has received rave reviews in the past. And, the Keynote speaker for the Saturday dinner is yours truly. As previously mentioned, this is the #1 gathering of storm chasers, meteorologists and enthusiasts from across the country. It is held every year just before storm season begins.  We had my retirement party at the Hyatt and the food, service and rooms were all outstanding.  Below is the list of airlines that serve Wichita.  Stay tuned for more information. 

Here is a map of two-week rainfalls across the Great Plains. There is record flooding on the Llano River in central Texas. Dodge City has had the wettest October ever even though it is only the 16th.

click to enlarge Please note that winds over 100 mph extended into southwest Georgia. ADDITION:  Some are reporting that the National Hurricane Center's peak winds, while plainly extremely destructive, may not have been as high as originally thought .

During my recent trip to Texas, I was the victim of a hit-and-run driver. Because the person who caused the accident did not stop, I am going to have to pay my insurance deductible, so I am victimized two ways. As a result his item from Instapundit yesterday really hit home: In his new book, “ In Pursuit of Civility ”, British historian Keith Thomas tells the story of the most benign developments of the past 500 years: the spread of civilised manners. In the 16th and 17th centuries many people behaved like barbarians. They delighted in public hangings and torture. They stank to high heaven. Samuel Pepys defecated in a chimney. Josiah Pullen, vice-principal of Magdalen Hall, Oxford, urinated while showing a lady around his college, “still holding the lady fast by the hand”. It took centuries of painstaking effort – sermons, etiquette manuals and stern lectures – to convert them into civilised human beings. Reading Thomas’s book on a train recently I was gripped by a terrible real

Of course, some would stay, "this makes is really  serious." If interested, the article is here .

click to enlarge

I do not personally care for President Trump. I like many of his polices but don't care for the man. That said, Lesley Stahl was wrong and President Trump was right in his 60 Minutes  interview last night: Hurricanes are not getting worse.  Here are the IPCC's exact words from its brand new report. Tropical cyclones meteorologists' jargon for tropical storms + hurricanes. We have illustrated that same point on this blog more times than I can count. 60 Minutes' claim hurricanes are getting worse = "fake news."

Airport security in Rome October 2 closed the airport because of ... coconuts. Geez.

The readers speak! Reader review at Amazon. You can read that review and many more here . Book Shark TOP 1000 REVIEWER 5.0 out of 5 stars Warning! This Book Will "Blow" You Away Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather  Positives: 1. Written like a great engaging novel, but it's all real! 2. Great science writing! Bravo! 3. An educational treat. 4. The history of meteorology in elegant, page-turning prose from a first person account. 5. Meteorological terms well defined and illustrated. 6. The evolution of the Weather Bureau culture, fascinating stuff. 7. Mr. Smith knows his science and does a better job of conveying it to the masses. 8. Supercell thunderstorms, truly enlightening. 9. Tornadoes, tornadoes, tornadoes. 10. Interesting facts throughout the book. 11. How weather radars work. 12. The most important storm chase ever and why it is so. 13. Weather detective extraordinaire, Ted Fujit

Paul Simon singing: Koda-chro-o-me, it brings you to nice bright colors... Before digital photography, it was generally believed to produce the best color reproduction of any kind of film. However, it was inconvenient because it required special processing that Ektachome and the others didn't. Finally, Kodak, its maker, stopped processing it. But, there was one Kodachrome processor left, in Parsons, Kansas. Bob Dotson, one of America's great storytellers, has details .

Ms. Sweat is writing about the inland areas of the Florida Panhandle.  Please read the above plea for help from ~2pm via Twitter. Hurricane Michael caused massive destruction that was, at first, underestimated by some.  Even though we donated to the Salvation Army's hurricane relief fund earlier this month, Kathleen and I just made another donation. Florence and Michael were monsters. If you are safe in your home enjoying football you are very blessed at the moment. So, please help the people who are struggling for survival from Hurricane Michael. To donate, please click here .

From Australia, a woman caught in a hailstorm received incredible bruising shielding her baby. On rare occasions, hailstorms kill. Please heed severe thunderstorm warnings in the United States so this does not happen to you.

Before I make my comments I urge you to offer prayers and donations for the survivors. Even if you have given to the Florence survivors, give again. If we are safe in our homes that is a sufficient blessing to justify reaching into our pockets again. I recommend the Salvation Army disaster relief funds. I am not a fan of the Red Cross for disaster relief. The following comments assume that media reporting is correct: As of this morning, there are still areas with no cell service. Where are the cell companies with the mobile cells they brag about during television commercials? Since there are no utilities, there are " desperate " people who have run out of food and water with no sanitation. This is part of the reason we meteorologists urge you to evacuate.  It isn't just to save your life in the first place. If the survivors were in the shelters, which are pre-stocked with food, water, beds and bedding, etc., they would be far more comfortable than they are now.  Whe

Details here .

Weather science achieved another remarkable result with the warnings pertaining to Hurricane Michael.  But, how did the warning system that saves so many lives come to be? My first book, Warnings,  answers that question. Yesterday morning, I received a call from an accountant (person who lives in our neighborhood) who was nearly finished reading  Warnings  and couldn't say enough good things about it. It is easy-to-read and, while 100% factual, it is written in the form of a suspense novel.  Based on the reviews, both books are well worth your time. You can read all of the Amazon reviews here . Here are a couple: Click to read in its entirety And, my book about the Joplin tornado and how the warning system  tragically  failed that Sunday. From one of the survivors: 5.0 out of 5 stars I just read an accurate description of what I  experienced  that day. By DiHof on May 16, 2016 Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase Mr. Smith's timeline and