Difference Between European and US Weather Modeling

In weather forecasting, we need both regional and global models. It has become well known, even to the public, that many nations are ahead of the U.S. in global weather forecasting models.

I try not to get into too much "inside baseball" on the blog but here is a graph (thank you, Dr. Ryan Maue) that shows the difference between the U.S. global model (red) and the European global model (blue). Higher is better. When I am in a hurry, I will often look at the European model's forecast of the U.S. weather pattern and not even bother with the U.S.'s forecast of the United States. Sad, isn't it?

One of the things the Trump Administration is going to have to consider is how to get the U.S. back into contention in global weather forecasting.d

One strategy is to "buy into" the European modeling consortium (ECMWF) and use their global model while the USA concentrates on fine-scale "mesoscale modeling." If we try to exceed the ECMWF, it will cost a lot of money and distract us for many years.