Some Thoughts on the Blizzard
Yes, there is a blizzard going on in the Northeast. Snowplows are literally getting stuck (Binghamton, NY). Twelve bolts of lightning have occurred in the last 30 minutes in lower Manhattan as thundersnow occurs.
However, the storm shifted about 25 miles -- just 25 miles -- and DC and NYC are going to get less snow than forecast.
No question the media is going to pummel meteorologists over the imperfect forecast and that is OK. When I began my career, the errors in forecasting the pattern of snowfall was often 200 miles. We have improved that by about a factor of eight. But, it is going to be very difficult to narrow that further to prevent this type of error.
More on that later today.
However, the storm shifted about 25 miles -- just 25 miles -- and DC and NYC are going to get less snow than forecast.
No question the media is going to pummel meteorologists over the imperfect forecast and that is OK. When I began my career, the errors in forecasting the pattern of snowfall was often 200 miles. We have improved that by about a factor of eight. But, it is going to be very difficult to narrow that further to prevent this type of error.
More on that later today.
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