Attention Gardeners, Farmers and Ranchers

By -
Here is the regional actual precipitation from the time it began in Colorado about 30 hours ago.


Forecasts
Okay, because we are now in planting season (soil temperatures rising) and I personally know people who are planning to garden this weekend, here is another update on rainfall prospects for the next ten days.

GFS Model Forecast for Ten Days
For reasons not well understood, the GFS typically is drier in its Great Plains forecasts produced from the morning data which again seems to be the case here. The other two models have turned wetter compared to last night's and yesterday's forecasts.

CFC Forecast
Yes, that is an 8+" area in northwest Kansas. Do not take any of the specific details of these forecasts too literally as illustrated below.

ECMWF Forecast
The ECMWF has forecast, like the CFC, some excessive rainfall in Kansas. But, this time, their forecast is for it to occur in the southern Flint Hills rather than northwest Kansas.

Again, do not take the details literally. The takeaway from these forecasts is that moderate to heavy rains will fall over most of this area the next ten days.


ECMWF Regional
Because the ECMWF is the usually the best of the three, here is the latest rainfall forecast for the entire region for the next ten days.

So, gardeners, farmers and ranchers -- use this information in a way that is most useful to you. The great news is that the long-forecasted rains have arrived and will continue for a while!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more