Global Warming: "New York Times" Beclowns Itself Again

By -
Apparently, the NYT doesn't realize its advocacy masquerading as journalism can be independently checked. Friday, in what has become an endless stream articles hyping global warming, they wrote:

Kerry A. Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the evidence suggested climate change would cause the strongest storms to grow even stronger, and to be more frequent. 

We have heard this from Kerry almost constantly since 2005 (the year of Katrina). It is very easy to prove Dr. Emanuel's fearmongering has not worked out as he predicted.
Dr. Ryan Maue, click to enlarge
The above graphic is a depiction of the worldwide tropical Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index which combines hurricane strength and number of storms into a single metric. If Dr. Emanuel's hypothesis is correct, the ACE index would have risen, or at least stayed the same, since 2005 (circled). Instead, it has gone down to very low levels, meaning hurricanes are less bad worldwide.

The article also plays games with the ongoing hurricane drought in the United States. No serious scientist contends that Hurricane Sandy had anywhere near Category 3 or stronger winds at landfall in the United States. So, yes, the U.S. continues in a record "drought" of "major" hurricanes (Cat. 3 or stronger). The drought is approaching 11 years in duration. The previous record was 6 years from 1900 to 1906. Our records reach back 150 years.

So, as of this time, there is zero evidence that hurricanes are getting worse. 

 By the way, that is not just my opinion, it is also the opinion of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The position that hurricanes are not getting worse is also affirmed and explained by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. in Disasters and Climate Change published earlier this summer.

UPDATE: Thank you to commenter Just A Citizen for pointing out that Ryan had updated the ACE measurement graphic.
As you can see, there has been a considerable uptick. If it rises and continues to rise over a period of years (just like it  went down after Katrina for 8 years) then Kerry's hypothesis will be on firmer ground. However, my central point remains true: Kerry has forecast a rise in hurricanes hurricanes since 2005 and values have stayed below that value ever since.

I appreciate any time a commenter brings new information to my attention!

Comments

  1. Just_a_CitizenSeptember 4, 2016 at 10:05 PM

    The graph in this post was updated Sept. 30, 2014. (Almost 2 years ago.)

    Dr. Maue's latest update is Aug.31, 2016 (5 days ago.)

    Quite a difference.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Just_a_CitizenSeptember 4, 2016 at 10:07 PM

    Here is the link:
    http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

    ReplyDelete
  3. Just_a_CitizenSeptember 5, 2016 at 11:48 AM

    Thanks for the update. I agree with your central point.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more