This is really cool. Full story here .

Here is the forecast rainfall in the Great Plains between now and Independence Day. Some areas are forecast to receive more than five inches. As I often advise, jokingly, unfocus your eyes when viewing this. In other words, look at the pattern rather than the specific point rainfall amounts. I believe, when this wet period has passed, a few spots may receive as much as eight inches. Note also the pattern extends into Colorado. The heavy rain in the Rockies (see below) is still in the forecast. Good news: There is no significant tornado risk anywhere in the U.S. the next couple of days.

From the 3.2" in the Rockies to 6+" in the Great Plains, the potential for flood-producing rains will increase over the Plains the next few days. Please stay tuned for updates.

He turned 90 day.

...that Hollywood films show the correct precautions to take in an earthquake (Paul Giamatti's character in San Andreas ) movie set in California but the wrong thing to do in a tornado (Kevin Cosner as Jonathan Kent in Man of Steel ) set in Kansas? I watched the former movie last night and was impressed the way the characters kept showing the right things to do. Now, if we could quit having characters take shelter under bridges during tornadoes. Sigh.

Increasingly, the answer is, "not without further examination." I know too many people who believe data and reports simply because they come from "the government" and believe its output to be unbiased. Two recent reports indicate that is not the case. The first: The inspector general found biased and simply wrong results at the U.S. Geological Survey's lab in Lakewood, Colorado. Verbatim from the report: USGS accused the chemist of data manipulation by intentionally changing the results produced by the mass spectrometer. The chemist also failed to preserve the data. Further, the Bureau accused the chemist of failing to operate the mass spectrometer according to established practices, which constituted scientific misconduct. These two actions created the larger issue of loss of scientific integrity, a concern referenced in USGS’ inquiry. Scientific integrity is at the core of the mission of USGS. Also, given the widespread use of USGS data and...

After a nice Father's Day run, Amazon is down to one copy. Warnings  continues to receive excellent reviews. A except from the most recent: One of the biggest impressions I got was how the discoveries of Ted Fujita and his contributions to our knowledge of wind shear have led to a remarkable improvement in air travel safety since the 1980s. There is some unavoidable delving into politics, from the early days of the battles between the Air Force, the Weather Bureau, and eventually TV stations over tornado warnings, to the unfortunate foot-dragging of the Bush administration with the Hurricane Katrina recovery. All told, this is a story of a triumph of true science over its adversaries, whether political or just human nature. Yes, the book is the life-saving triumph of scientists over tremendous odds. It would be a great way to use your Father's Day gift card.

I've had people ask me if there was any notice of the horrible tornado that killed 99 in China. Courtesy of my friend Paul Raymond, I learned there was an advance forecast of a tornado. Hopefully, that helped mitigate the terrible death toll. And, by the way, here is how the Chinese write the word tornado: Additional info. Jeff Lockwood says the full name of a tornado =    龙卷风 = "dragon+curl+wind."

This is a precipitation forecast that more resembles April than late June. Heavy rains forecast over the central United States with moderate rain in the south. Meanwhile, the northern states -- which often have heavy rain in late June -- are expected to have somewhat lighter rainfalls.

As of 9am there were still 32,170 homes in West Virginia without power. This catastrophe occurred Thursday as torrential rains fell throughout the day after heavy rains two days before. In the area around White Sulphur Springs, the rainfall of 8 2/3rd inches in 24 hours, was an event with a probability of 0.001 in any given year. The area around White Sulphur Springs, home of The Greenbrier resort, was especially hard hit with more than 10 inches over the mountains above the resort. I wish to salute my colleagues at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions for providing outstanding warnings of the floods to our clients. Note: The PGA Greenbrier Classic golf tournament schedule for July 7-10 has been cancelled due to damage to the course. From Twitter:

There is a tornado risk in Minnesota (including the Twin Cities) and Wisconsin later today. Please keep an eye on the weather in this region!

When criticizing some of the silly forms of alternative energy, I have stated I owned no energy stocks. That changed today when I made a small investment. Do you really believe a barrel of oil is worth less because Great Britain left EU? I don't, so I own am the proud owner of 150 shares in an oil company. Note: I have long believed news reporters should undergo the same disclosure they force on others. I try to practice what I preach.

There was a a full-fledged tornado outbreak in northern Illinois last night. The red symbols are tornadoes. Blue are winds of 60 mph or higher. The black in Minnesota are very large hail. The black in Indiana are very high winds (in some cases more than 80 mph). SPC's forecast worked out very well. Fortunately, the tornadoes missed population centers. Today, there is still a risk of tornadoes. If you live in the 5% area, which includes Cincinnati and Charleston, please keep up on the weather today.

In addition to tornadoes, the threat is morphing into damaging winds over the watch area. Here is the radar from 9:41pm. There is one current tornado warning north of Bloomington, Illinois. Multiple tornadoes have been reported this evening with unconfirmed reports of injuries.

As of 7:54pm, there are three areas of tornado concern. The storms are moving ESE to SE. Please take cover in these areas! One last update later this evening.

Strong tornado signature near Paw Paw at 7:30pm. --original post-- 7:20pm. Very dangerous situation in Compton and vicinity. Compton and Paw Paw take cover now!

The first tornado warning of the evening has been issued (red polygon). Take cover in this area!! Radar at 7:16pm. Latest from Jeff in the field (7:16pm): Additional tornado warnings are highly likely. I expect another tornado watch to be issued to the south and east of the current tornado watch later this evening. Damaging winds are likely. Remember: I no longer live-blog storms. I will try to do one more update before I retire for the evening. 

6:57pm, Jeff Piotrowski, near Amboy, reports strong rotation. Here is the radar at that time. People in and around Amboy should keep a close eye out for any warnings or concentrated rotation in the clouds. ORIGINAL POSTING: The first severe thunderstorm warnings are now coming out in northern Illinois. Those are the yellow polygons. Jeff Piotrowski and other storm chasers have been reporting funnel clouds during the last few minutes. There is some rotation starting to show on Doppler radar. So, I believe we are not far away from the first tornado warning of the day.

The NWS has issued a tornado watch until 1am which includes Chicago. Note that the tornado threat extends until well after dark. Note there is a "moderate" chance of strong tornadoes, a moderate chance of 2" and larger hail and a moderate chance of 65 knots (= 75 mph) wind gusts. Pretty much as forecast, thunderstorms are developing in the northwest part of the outlook area (below). Radar from 6:19pm below. These are expected to intensify into supercells and move southeast. I'll update again later this evening.

I expect the primary thunderstorms to develop in the initial threat region and then spread southeast the rest of the evening. The storms should form between about 5:30 and 6:30pm. Tornadoes, very large hail and strong winds are likely with any storms near this area. Stay tuned!

The Storm Prediction Center has revised its forecasts somewhat and, while I agree with the direction they are taking, I don't think the tornado revision is revised enough. This is the tornado risk, which you can compare to their earlier forecast below. Remember, 5% (brown) is the significant risk for tornadoes. Hatching means strong (EF2 or greater) tornadoes are possible. Note they have added the City of Chicago in the "strong" tornado risk area and have extended the strong tornado risk into northwest Illinois I agree with that. However, there is so much rain-cooled air over northeast Illinois, that the warm front might set up farther southwest than some of the forecast tools currently indicate. If that is correct, any thunderstorm that can set going in the purple area certainly has tornado potential. So, I recommend people in the SPC+my tornado risk area closely monitor the weather if thunderstorms approach Hail Risk Earlier today, the hail risk didn't se...

There are scattered thunderstorms over the Midwest at the present time. However, this is not the main event which is still a few hours away. Unfortunately, the severe weather event for the Midwest covered yesterday appears on track to become a serious tornado and severe thunderstorm wind situation. Here are the details. Tornado And Giant Hail Risk Five percent (brown) is the significant threshold for tornadoes. The hatched area, which includes the Quad Cities, Rockford,  and western suburbs of Chicago is where strong tornadoes are forecast to occur. Damaging Wind Risk The significant threshold is 15% (yellow). The hatched area is where winds are forecast to gust to 75 mph or higher. It is possible that a few areas will see gusts of 85 mph which will cause power failures, perhaps widespread. The advice? Go to your ATM and get some extra cash. Credit card machines and ATM's don't work during power failures.  Make sure you car's fuel is topped off. Power fai...

As promised, here is an update on tomorrow's severe thunderstorm and tornado threat. The highest probabilities have been trimmed a bit on the northwest and north sides of the risk area. Otherwise, it is pretty much unchanged, as is my advice below, particularly if you live in the hatched area.

Three areas have a tornado risk later today, including Washington-Baltimore and the surrounding area.  Please keep up on the latest weather information in these areas. 

2016 has been an unusually quiet year for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Midwest. That is going to change tomorrow in a big way. So, I am starting coverage of this event now. The threshold for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms on this day-before outlook is 15% (yellow). The hatched area is where violent tornadoes, thunderstorm wind gusts of 75 mph or giant hail (2" or larger) are forecast to occur. The purple area is a 45% probability is three times the significant threshold. If you live in this area, there is the possibility of power failures due to the forecast high winds. What is my preparatory advice at this point? Go to your ATM and get some extra cash. Credit card machines and ATM's don't work during power failures.  Make sure you car's fuel is topped off. If you have a chain saw or generator, make sure they have fuel. If you need to move things in a garage so you can put your car in, now would be a good time. Make plans to insure your chil...

Anthony Watts has the details .

This is getting way out of hand. Three nights ago, Kansas City Royals fans had to break into a car to rescue a pet that broiling in the heat. They have now started a petition not to allow cars with pets to come into their parking lot in th first place. Please keep an eye out for children and pets in hot cars. Call the police immediately if you see one!!

Wednesday, I posted about the incredible flash flood situation just north of Wichita. At the same time the flash floods were occurring near Wichita, friend Dr. Mike Khadavi took this photo from Kansas City at the same time looking west northwest. I'm posting this with his permission. The thunderstorm complex north of Wichita at the time, which was below the horizon as viewed from Kansas City, blocked the sun creating the shadow (at left). At right, the sun is unblocked creating the brilliant sunset. ------------------------------------- If you are interested in how this works technically, here's a diagram. As seen from Kansas City (marked with a circle), the sun is in the WNW sky. The higher clouds are marked with the green arrows. So, as seen from Kansas City, the higher storm clouds are on the left (causing the shadow) and the high clouds creating the orange sunset are on the right. You don't see the higher clouds because they were below the horizon. The high...

While I don't know if it is a Kansas or national promotion but Monday is half-price cheeseburger day (they're delicious!) at Sonic. So, my annual reminder: If you are getting drinks (only) or, maybe, a single cheeseburger, go to the drive through. If you are feeding the tribe, pull into a stall and order! That is what the carhops are for. Last week, I was the car behind the car at the window and I waited 12 minutes (!!) while the car in front of me got four drinks, a juice box and four sacks of food. And, finally, there was a conversation by some storm chasers on Facebook asking the question, "Should you tip your carhop at Sonic?" My gosh people, they work in the rain, snow, hot and cold. Tip Your Carhops at Sonic!!!

It is my opinion that father's do not get the credit they deserve for raising children and that vital contribution to society. Unmarried Men: Being a husband and father is the greatest thing in the world.  Yesterday, daughter Tiffany sent this photo. From left, Forecaster Evie, future forecaster Jillian, and daughter Tiffany. A photo like this warms your heart until you feel like it is going to explode. One of our sons is in Italy on vacation and the other starts a great new job tomorrow. I am so very proud of all three of our children! Advice you didn't ask for: Don't "live with" your girlfriend. If you love her, marry her! Have kids. Studies conclusively show married men live longer and are happier. Unmarried Men: Being a husband and father is the greatest thing in the world. 

This was moments ago southwest of Wichita (far upper right). See the lightning strokes southwest of Conway Springs (lower left) that appear to be in the middle of nowhere? If we tilt the radar up higher in the atmosphere you see that thunderstorm is not entirely vertical. There is plenty of intense storm very close to the bolts. This display shows where the bolt hits the ground, not where it originates inside the storm. This again illustrates that you do not have to be in the rain for lightning to strike.  By the way, today's storms are moving from southeast to northwest, the opposite of normal. Be careful out there!

Tornado forecast later today along the Canada border (our NWS does not extend across international borders).

From the Wall Street Journal.  Please read the entire piece. There are few more rewarding sights than a bully scorned, so let’s hear it for the recent laments of Attorneys General Claude Walker (Virgin Islands) and  Eric Schneiderman  (New York), two ringleaders of the harassment campaign against Exxon  and free-market think tanks over climate change. Consider Mr. Walker’s recent retreat in District of Columbia superior court. In April he issued a sweeping subpoena to the Competitive Enterprise Institute, demanding a decade of emails, policy work and donor names. The goal is to intimidate anyone who raises doubts about climate science or the policy responses. CEI fought back. It ran a full-page newspaper ad highlighting the Walker-Schneiderman effort to criminalize speech, and it counter-sued the Virgin Islands, demanding sanctions and attorneys fees. The District of Columbia has a statute to deter what is known as a Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Particip...

Below is a excerpt from a reader interview at Amazon. The full review is here .  5.0 out of 5 stars The Most Engaging Book I've Read In Years Format: Hardcover  Verified Purchase TL;DR review: Exciting, engaging, informative, couldn't put it down, you should buy this book I initially purchased this book to get over a fear of tornadoes, thinking that the more you know about a subject, the better you are able to deal with it. I got more than I bargained for in the best way. First of all, the author Mike Smith is a great writer... This book would make a great Father's Day present!

This weather pattern just won't settle down. Here is AccuWeather's overview. Here is where tornadoes are possible (brown, 5%) area. This includes the western suburbs of Washington, DC. Please keep up on the weather if you live in these areas!