Longer Range Rainfall Amount Forecast

By -
One of the reasons you don't see snowfall amounts beyond three days or rainfall forecasts beyond five days on this blog very often is because -- in spite of our major progress in weather forecasting the past decade -- they are still not very consistent.

Here is an example. The U.S. GFS's ten-day forecast of rainfall centered on Kansas:
click to enlarge
And, here is the, often more accurate, European model for the same period as above. It is significantly different.     

Meteorologists try to get around all of this by running a bunch of models together and averaging them. This is the European ensemble run from last night's models.
The ensemble pattern, like this morning's individual European model result, shows lesser rainfall amounts in northeast Kansas and heavier amounts in southern and western Kansas which, more or less, confirms the pattern in both of the individual GFS and European models from this morning. Got all that?

 So, what can we say? I am confident of substantial rains (≥1.5 inches) over all but the northeast 1/5th of Kansas over the next ten days. If the low pressure system after Day 5 starts slowly drifting over the Plains, as some of the models are showing, then the heavier amounts shown in the European model may well come true. If so, it would be a godsend for the 2016 winter wheat crop.

Comments

  1. BrianApril 10, 2016 at 5:44 PM

    Well there's two storms coming - the one that isn't as big that is tonight (Denver) into tomorrow (assume Kansas), then the much bigger one next weekend which even the KDEN long range forecaster is starting to sound the alarm about so to speak. Obviously the models won't get a grip on next weekend's system until it actually comes ashore.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 13, 2016 at 9:03 AM

    Always enjoy your in-depth look at the weather, thank you for posting.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more