If you are celebrating tonight and live in the yellow area, please be aware of the risk of flash flooding. Remember: Turn around, don't drown!

This morning's computer models are near unanimous that extremely heavy rain will fall over California during the next ten days. This applies to the entire state, including Southern California. I urge Californians and those traveling to California to keep up on the weather the next week as flooding may develop at lower elevations over time and heavy snow may close highways over the higher elevations. I'll update these forecasts, stay tuned.

If you have lived in St. Louis, you know what Ted Drewes is. This is the first I have seen of a vending machine. I love Ted's so much that it is memorialized in the St. Louis part of my train layout. Kathleen, my birthday is coming up...... And, if I can't get Ted Drewes, I'll settle for this beauty found -- you guessed it -- only in Las Vegas. Nothing like technological progress to make our lives better!!!

Highly recommended from this past week: Some of the troubling behavior of mainstream climate science . I have looked into these same issues and I agree with them. From Scott Adams on comparing the climates of climate scientists and skeptics.

Here is the forecast for January 3 to 7, 2017. And, here is the forecast precipitation: Very cold and, in some areas, very snowy!

For naming Warnings  among his list of great books. It is much appreciated!!

More details from AccuWeather .

Here are Roger's best photos of 2016 .

I used to have respect for Climate Central. Unfortunately, the last few years, they have gotten sillier with time.

The three tornadoes reported so far (there may have been one in Nebraska) are the northeasternmost tornadoes since reliable records began being kept in 1950. Here are the previous Christmas Day tornadoes.

....on this blog, you'd likely enjoy my 5-Star rated book about how meteorologists create the warnings that save so many lives*. It might make a great use of a gift card from Amazon or Barnes & Noble . *You may recall the best-selling book, The Children's Blizzard  which was the story of an unwarned blizzard that took the lives of 500, mostly schoolchildren. Given the Christmas travel period, the death toll from the current blizzard would likely have been in the hundreds. It is the warning system that makes the difference. Yes, meteorologists are unsung heroes who work on Christmas Day and every day.

There is a tremendous blizzard raging over eastern Wyoming and parts of southeast Montana, far southwest North Dakota and far northwest South Dakota. This includes parts of Interstates 90 and 25 during the busy Christmas travel period. But, you wouldn't know from the radar. Why? Because it is in one of the serious radar gaps we have in our nation. People I speak to in Washington say there are moves to purchase some radars to plug these gaps which are badly, badly needed. I'm hoping the incoming Administration will be amenable to these plans. UPDATE: While on the subject,

Here is the AccuWeather Regional Radar as of 5:45pm CST. The blizzard is in full progress, especially in the western part of the Dakotas. The ice storm is still developing. Please do not try to travel in the blizzard (orange) and ice storm warning (deep purple) areas. 

Hope your Christmas was as great as ours.

The deep purple color is an ice storm warning. It has been shifted west since last night. In the ice storm warning area, power failures could occur. Please prepare accordingly as they could last several days in places. The light purple area is a freezing rain advisory where roads could be icy and dangerous. The orange is the blizzard warning. Don't even think about traveling in the blizzard area as high drifts will make roads impassible. Pink is winter storm warnings.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center says winds gusts to 70 mph with the thunderstorms and "a tornado or two possible."

There may be a very small tornado near Dodge City. See the little notch southwest of town? I've highlighted the wind flow and put a dot where the tornado might be. However, if there was a tornado it was very brief and these are nearly impossible to warn of. That may be the case all day.

The line of thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds and a very brief tornado or two has formed earlier in the day than I had expected. I am also surprised by the amount of lightning.   Update: 62 mph winds reported near Montezuma, Kansas, which is SW of Dodge City. I will update this on Twitter @usweatherexpert . Please keep up on the weather in the area outlined by AccuWeather!

From me, Mindy, and Forecaster Evie, we wish you the merriest of Christmases. In that spirit, you might enjoy the above video. On this blog and elsewhere, I often talk about the amazing people I am privileged to work with at  AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions . Wednesday we had our annual holiday lunch and "secret Santa" gift exchange (thank you Michelle Strecker and Cynthia Atchison!). When I opened my gift, this Scrabble fan was blown away. A framed Scrabble board with weather words. Ali is a tremendous meteorologist and she is a wonderful person: which is typical of our staff. Thank you so much, Ali. 

Using the best computer model for this purpose: Please see posting below for snowfall amounts. There will be severe drifting with this storm and road, even interstate highways, will be impassible. While most of the focus has been on the blizzard, there will be a serious ice storm. There will likely be power failures that will last for a few days as well as highways that will be impassible, at least while the storm is in progress and for the next day or so. Farther south, at 6pm (shortly before the Chiefs' game), the yellow areas are thunderstorms where high winds could occur. However, unless large storms, such as with the map above, you cannot exactly locate the position of the thunderstorms. They could occur anywhere from the Missouri River area to northeast Oklahoma.

Keep in mind that not only will more than a foot of snow fall, high winds will cause severe drifting. Here is a summary of conditions for tomorrow: There could be power failures in the ice storm (deep purple) area. Icy road conditions in the lighter purple. The hunter green area is a winter storm watch where ice could turn to snow. Please complete your travels as soon as possible. It will be extremely dangerous to travel once the storm commences. 

Unfortunately, there is still a significant risk of a tornado or two and fairly widespread damaging winds on Christmas Day. The thunderstorms will have relatively little cloud-to-ground lightning and a low chance of damaging hail. So, you may want to keep an eye on the weather as these fast-moving thunderstorms affect Kansas and immediately surrounding areas.

On Christmas Eve, there are countless stories about how Mary and Joseph could not find room in the inn. So, it seems appropriate to discuss how the pro-life movement helps care for children and their mothers after their children are born regardless of time of year.  This posting was partly inspired as I was watching an episode of  Law and Order's  a few months ago when the character of policewoman Anita Van Buren commented about pro-life people, "yeah, they want the mothers to have the babies but they don't care what happens after they are born..."  Do an online search using those words and there are dozens of similar entries that libel the pro-life movement in a similar manner. So, let's learn the truth.  Earlier this week, the Wall Street Journal  ran a column by Bill McGurn about Good Counsel , a home and network for challenged mothers in the New York area that decide to keep their babies: Just a few evenings from now, children badly cost...

Orange is a blizzard warning. Lime green is a blizzard watch. Pink is a winter storm warning. Blue is a winter weather advisory (lesser condition). Gray is a dense fog advisory. Green along the California coast is flooding advisory. The blizzard will occur Christmas Day and Sunday night.

The blizzard is still on for the northern Great Plains. To the south, there is the potential of thunderstorms to cause 70+ mph winds and brief tornadoes, especially in Kansas and Nebraska.

Here is the latest radar. Here is a map of the latest watches and warnings. Lime green is a blizzard watch. I expect that to be extended into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming. Pink is a winter storm warning. Deep green is a winter storm watch. Dark blue is a winter weather advisory (a lesser condition). The green in California is flood warnings.

From Rob Hart of the NWS, this is a map of Christmas Day tornadoes since 1964. It would be highly unusual to get them as far north as is forecast this Christmas.

Vital information if you are considering traveling Sunday in the central United States. Yes, a full-fledged blizzard  is likely from the Nebraska Panhandle to central North Dakota. Do not try to travel by car through the region and flights (ie., Rapid City) in the area will almost certainly be cancelled. And, farther south, the potential for tornadoes on Christmas Day. We will continue to update the Christmas travel. Keep checking back for the latest.

So says ServiceMaster Recovery Management about AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions. Details here . If your business is affected by weather and natural hazards you need to be partnering with AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions .

A mess in the West . Below is the 5-day precipitation totals. In some locations, this is the heaviest rainstorm/snowstorm is three years. So, expect traffic and airline delays. A major winter storm -- with near blizzard conditions in some areas -- will develop in over the weekend in the Rockies and northern Great Plains. The storm will make its way into Ontario and Saskatchewan. Snowfalls will exceed ten inches in a number of areas with considerable drifting. And, if this wasn't enough, there is a risk of tornadoes  on Christmas day in Kansas and Oklahoma. This includes Wichita, Oklahoma City and Tulsa. There is a slight risk of tornadoes in north central and northeast Texas as well as the Ozarks region of southwest Missouri. So, we'll have to keep an eye on that as later data comes in. Tornadoes can occur any day of the year in the United States. On Christmas Day 2012, a tornado struck Mobile. Cars were literally falling out of the sky (watch the end of the v...

Here is a quick look at AccuWeather's forecast for Christmas: Please check back tomorrow for day-by-day forecasts.

This article is so silly that, at first, I thought it might have come from the New York Times.  However, the Washington Post  is rapidly catching up to the Times  in the level of hysteria pertaining to global warming. Get this: Brearley plays a critical, and entirely accidental, role in climate change because of his position as the chair of the Committee on Postponed Parts within the Constitutional Convention of 1787. Yes, apparently the drafters of the Constitution were supposed to have thought of global warming when they were drafting the document. The author, one Todd Cort from Yale (no surprise there), makes it clear he is no fan of George Bush but rationalizes Barack Obama's administration in this manner: The Obama administration did not solve climate change, but it did make significant strides both domestically and in international agreements.  Yup, those "international agreements" are vitally important when China is bringing each week  one co...

Traveling to the Southwest for Christmas?

It is here . As we get it up and running, you'll find a wealth of information useful to any business or enterprise affected by weather or natural hazards.

Just heard today from another happy reader. If you know someone who likes weather or just a good non-fiction book, Warnings  is the perfect choice. Take a look at the 59 Amazon (5-Star!) ratings. So, please give this book some consideration when shopping for Christmas gifts.