Secretary of State John Kerry said today at an Arctic conference in Anchorage that “anybody running for any high office in any nation in the world” should visit a place where the “seismic challenge” of climate change is happening “and inform themselves about this.” “And we as leaders of countries will begin to witness what we call climate refugees moving – you think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” Kerry told the Global Leadership in the Arctic: Cooperation, Innovation, Engagement, and Resilience (GLACIER) Conference. Climate scientists, like atmospheric scientists, can't do anything without an acronym. Calling it the Arctic Climate Conference (for example) is out of the question.  This climate conference was in Anchorage and the next is in Paris. But, hey, it is taxpayer money they are spending wh

ABC News did a s pecial in 2009 forecasting the horrors of global warming in 2015. They were only off by 75% based on the price of gasoline in Wichita today.  Over and over and over and over again, Big Climate gets it wrong. Yet, it never seems to affect their confidence and their forecasts of catastrophe.  Maybe it should. 

It is almost hard to believe how bad the news reporting was on Katrina's aftermath. WeatherData, Inc. (now AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions ), by 10am on the 29th, had informed its clients that the levees had breached. As I write in Warnings , I boarded a business flight late the morning of the 29th and, when I reached my hotel in Charlotte, I turned on the television and expected to see non-stop coverage of the rising waters. I was flabbergasted that, even on "Nightline" at 11:30pm, there was no realization that things were getting worse rather than better. People were literally drowning due to the rising water yet no one outside New Orleans (and our clients) seemed to know about it. On the 30th, the networks finally reported that New Orleans had flooded but got just about everything else wrong. If you would like to learn about what went wrong with the news coverage, in addition to my book, Warnings, you can click here , here and here . The last link is to an ar

Very heavy rains expected from the remains of tropical storm Erika.

I wonder how many pre-written, canned press releases by Big Climate about the horrors of Hurricane Erika are being shredded at this very moment (see below). H/T: Thanks to Steve Goddard for the headline.

Atlantic Tropical storm Erika is dissipated.  Pacific Hurricane Igancio is still expected to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands but will cause high surf over the region. 

I even replayed it to insure I heard what I thought I heard, "They are suspending the game due to heavy rain and a big clap of thunder anticipating some lightning." was stated a moment ago by an announcer for the Kansas City Chiefs pre-season game.

What I wrote on the 20th anniversary still applies.

Florida AccuWeather forecasts Erika to move up near the west coast of Florida. We continue to forecast it will be of tropical storm strength when it does. Hawaii The NWS forecasts Ignacio to miss the Hawaiian Islands to the north. It will cause very high surf on the north (windward) sides of the islands.

No kidding. In fact, there is evidence carbon credits have increased  emissions of carbon dioxide. More here .

Dear Huffington Post, "Katrina" and the damage it produced was caused by a HER-A-CANE. It was a very big, round storm that came in from the Gulf of Mexico to Louisiana and Mississippi (after Florida).  At one time, Katrina had wind gusts above 160 mph and piled water more than 25 ft. above sea level.  The damage was not caused by pipeline construction or any of the other items in your story. The damage was caused by the very big HER-A-CANE. Here is a book that I think would be fun and educational for you and your buddies to read. Then, perhaps, you will write a story that is correct next time.  Your friend, Michael

In the Atlantic: This forecast is exceptionally uncertain both as to path and intensity. In the Pacific: Hawaii threatened again. If you live in Hawaii, Florida or Georgia keep an eye on the forecasts starting Saturday.

Just wow. One of the central tenets of the scientific method is that others must be able to reproduce an experiment and achieve the same results. For too many years, no one was performing this vital task. Now  Science  has reported on the results of the Reproducibility Project. What they learned was sobering: 64% of the peer-reviewed results could not be reproduced even when working the authors of the original studies!  The Project's results are here . I can hardly imagine what the statistics would be for climate 'science.'

More on the tenth anniversary of Katrina... Mr. Brown has written a brief essay in Politico attempting to exonerate himself and his agency for their terrible performance during Katrina. I wrote on this very topic a couple of days ago. Yes, Mayor Nagin's decision to delay a mandatory evacuation and the designation of the Superdome were terrible decisions that cost many lives. But, it wasn't Mayor Nagin that sent the rescuers to Atlanta to take classes on sexual harassment and the "history of FEMA" while people were perishing as the waters rose. It wasn't Gov. Blanco that insisted on having a steak dinner at high-end restaurant in Baton Rouge -- and insisting on not being interrupted during the meal -- while confused first responders were awaiting deployment orders. All of this, and more, is documented in my book, Warnings .  So, yes, I agree that Michael Brown does not bear all of the blame for the Katrina catastrophe. That said, it would be much more he

AccuWeather continues to believe Erika will be a tropical storm when it is in the vicinity of Florida. Question: If I were in Florida's east coast what would I do to prepare for Erika? The only thing I would do at this point is get any prescription drugs refilled if you are low. On the outside chance this storm strengthens more than we think, and since the weekend is approaching, you might want to consider getting them refilled. Otherwise, I don't recommend any other special precautions at this point.

Thanks to Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr., we learn that major hurricanes are much less common than they used to be. At the turn of the 20th century, a major hurricane struck Florida, on average, once every 1,200 days. Now, the interval has grown to 1,800 days -- a major improvement, especially given the huge increase in population and potential for property loss.

click to enlarge With permission, I'm reproducing this unsolicited Tweet that said, Enjoying my vacation reads. Warnings is exceptional. Love the facts, autobiography, and insight. There are several chapters covering Katrina, hurricane forecasting and disaster response that are exceptionally timely with that storms' 10th anniversary and Erika threatening the Southeast. You can order a copy of this 5-Star rated book here .

AccuWeather continues to forecast Tropical Storm Erika to affect Florida the first of the week. At this point, we believe the storm will continue as tropical storm until it makes landfall. Full details here . While we are on the subject of tropical Florida weather, may I suggest reading this excellent posting from Dr. John Scala on the double threat created by gradually increasing sea levels combined with the hurricane drought.

The Northwest has already suffered mightily from wildfires and, unfortunately, the conditions are ideal for more fires to start today and tomorrow. Shaded areas have high fire risk today. High fire risk areas tomorrow (Thursday) Please be extra careful in these areas.

This time it is CNN . The story, as you would expect, is complete with cute polar bears .  We've documented these silly deadlines all the way back to 1989 and the world is still here and functioning just fine. Our story, "Tipsy From Tipping Points," is  here .

  --- USA Today Why is it the people always lecturing us about global warming are the people with gargantuan carbon footprints? I'll believe global warming is a crisis when the people telling me its a crisis start acting like its a crisis.  -- Glenn Reynolds

More details from AccuWeather .

As we approach the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, here is a sampling of headlines from around the nation in the weeks after the storm: From Wikipedia: Due to the slow response to the hurricane, New Orleans's top emergency management official called the effort a "national disgrace" and questioned when reinforcements would actually reach the increasingly desperate city. What went so horribly wrong? How did more than 1,800 people lose their lives when the storm was superbly forecast? Why was the rescue a "national disgrace"? I spent time researching this for Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather . The answers will likely shock you. There were two things that went horribly wrong: The first was New Orleans' Mayor Ray Nagin's complete failure to grasp the gravity of the situation or to order 1) a mandatory evacuation before Sunday midday and 2) his failure to order the implementation of the southeast Louisiana dis

Looks like Kilo is going to pass west of Hawaii. Very good news!

No kidding, the climate crowd is starting a climate museum in New York (where else?). Here are the exhibits: ---and--- They'll probably charge $30 admission.

Please note there is a moderate  chance of violent tornadoes and high  chances of damaging thunderstorm winds and damaging hail. It is in effect until midnight. Please keep an eye on the weather if thunderstorms approach.

People in this area should keep a close eye on the weather as the thunderstorms in the southwest part of the watch develop and move northeast.

A tornado watch has just been issued until 11pm for parts of the Upper Midwest. No thunderstorms are in the watch as of the time of this posting but are expected to move in quickly. Please keep an eye on the weather if thunderstorms approach.

Tropical Depression Kilo (it was a tropical storm) is struggling to get organized. However, it is still a threat to both the Hawaiian Islands and a threat to become a hurricane. I heard from a friend in Hawaii that the local media is barely mentioning the threat -- which is typical ("don't scare the tourists"). So, I'll continue to periodically update on the threat, if any, posed by Kilo.

With the enhanced risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms today (see below), you are in great hands. My friend, Cat Taylor, is the new meteorologist for Siouxland News. While young, she is extremely knowledgeable about tornadoes and severe thunderstorms and will do a great  job for you.

The significant risk is the brown (5%) area with an elevated risk in the yellow (10%) area. There is also a serious risk of damaging hail. The significant risk of 1" or larger hail is yellow (15%) with the red area (30%) a rather high risk. In the hatched area, there is a risk of 2" or larger hail.

In order of concern: Saturday , widespread severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will develop in the Upper Midwest. Fifteen percent (yellow) is the significant threshold. Hatching is where the most violent weather may occur. Tuesday - Thursday Next Week Now Tropical Storm, likely Hurricane Kilo will threaten the Hawaiian Islands with the highest risk to Kauai and Niihau. Major hurricanes in Hawaii are rare but, when they occur, they approach from the south or southwest. AccuWeather has more. Hurricane Danny Danny is now a major -- category 3 -- hurricane with 115 mph winds. Danny will likely begin to weaken starting in 12 to 18 hours. I believe it is unlikely that Danny will have a significant effect on the United States, but it is too soon to say for sure.

Harry Volkmar passed away yesterday at the age of 89. He was one of the creators of television meteorology. In 1952, at WKY TV in Oklahoma City, he issued the first ever tornado warning. In more recent years, he was a well-known meteorologist in Chicago. Harry was a genuinely nice guy as well as a talented meteorologist. He will be greatly missed.

There is a serious risk of a hurricane near or striking Hawaii in roughly five days. Please keep an eye on the weather if you live in the Islands or plan to travel there. Since coverage of Hawaii weather is often spotty on the mainland, I'll periodically update on the blog.

This tweet pretty much says it all: So, the taxpayers of the United States are being asked to spend trillions of dollars we do not have to reduce temperatures by a value too small for us to measure.

This review was posted on Illinois' meteorologist Chris Saindon's Facebook page: To all of my friends, professional meteorologists (many of my friends are) and anyone else who loves severe weather, forecasting, etc: This is a MAGNIFICENT book by Mike Smith! If it we're a restaurant it would receive 4-STARS -- that's how good this book is. The chapters on Katrina alone are worth the low purchase price!! While I do not know how long it will last, Amazon has been running a sale on the hardcover version of the book lately. For hardcover, click here . For the Kindle version, click here . For Barnes & Noble hardcover, click here . For B&N Nook, click here . Or, go to your local bookstore!

Earlier, a question came in asking why we have not mentioned Tropical Storm Danny, which may become a hurricane, on the blog? I did mention Danny when it was named and mentioned it would likely become a hurricane . That is plenty considering it will be more than a week before the storm could reach the U.S. -- and that is the unlikely path. There is no reason to get excited at this point. For others, the hype machine is going full blast: Always dependable (for hype)  The Weather Channel: And, Yahoo! News is even worse: As I was working on this post, the Capital Weather Gang commented on this same topic : They had praise for AccuWeather: FYI, this is what AccuWeather's home page looked like at the time: The "Danny" story rotated with three others, meaning it was on the page only 1/4 of the time. So, if you want balanced hurricane coverage throughout Danny's life, I highly recommend AccuWeather .  Of course, if it looks like it will become a

George Soros helping fan the global warming fire in 2009. While concerns about global warming may have started out as a genuine scientific and environmental concern, that era ended years ago. It is now about making money and gaining political power. We have pointed out, literally dozens and dozens of times, the hypocrisy of most of the ‘leaders’ of the global warming movement: multiple mansions, private jets, yachts, conferences in exotic, remote locations (btw, the next one is in Paris). Why bring this up? You’ve undoubtedly heard about the Obama Administration’s “War on Coal.” Already one coal company has gone bankrupt and two are in jeopardy. So, what is Soros, a card-carrying member of Big Climate doing? Buying coal companies!!! These guys aren't dumb. They understand the first rule of economics, “Buy low, sell high.” In a few years, after driving down the price of coal, some magic technology will be anointed “clean" coal and the value of these companies w