This is not a tornado, it is a dust devil without the dust (area is grassy or paved). Still, it causes quite a commotion.

Because there is so much travel after New Year's I want to post this very preliminary forecast of the path of accumulating snow. Please disregard the colors as I am not attempting to forecast amounts at this point. Also, please disregard the little kink in the path in central Kansas. I have added the orange dashed line to illustrate the northwest edge of the snow path. Normally, I don't try to forecast a winter storm this far into the future, but I am doing this because I want travelers to be able to factor it into their plans. AccuWeather is forecasting 3 to 6 inches for Wichita which seems reasonable as a preliminary  amount. ADDITION: Below is an update from AccuWeather on the ice in the southern Plains.

From Dr. Ryan Maue comes this graph of worldwide tropical storm frequency since 1976 when we first had worldwide satellite coverage. T.S. frequency peaked in the late '90's and has dropped every since to record low levels. Remember, after Katrina, we were told how global warming was going to make hurricanes and tropical storms worse? Wrong again.

Winter weather continues in the Southwest. AccuWeather has details. Here is the current AccuWeather Regional Radar: From Kingman, AZ an hour ago (photo via Twitter and @AlFinkbeier): Over the weekend, the storm is forecast to move east. Over central and West Texas, an icy mix of precipitation is forecast. Pink = winter storm warning. The blue is a winter weather advisory which is a lesser condition than a warning. The question marks denote an area where snow is expected to develop on Saturday but locations and amounts are quite uncertain. I expect to be updating on the central Plains snow threat this afternoon.

70 mph winds have blown over a semi in Davis County, Utah.  And, it looks like the cold, wintery weather will spread east. Pink is a winter storm warning. Blue is a winter weather advisory and green is a winter storm watch. The question marks are where snow may  fall late Friday into late Saturday night.

Please allow extra time if you are traveling I-70 between Goodland, Kansas, and Denver, please be aware that accumulating snow, some freezing drizzle, and temperatures in the teens will make travel very slow and difficult.

The combination of a career autobiography and the evolution of the weather warning system makes this book unique and a fun read. It also answered the questions I used to ask as a child and totally forgot about until now. Who decided what color the weather is and how did they decide which colors to use? Mike Smith is incredibly talented and this book shows it.  The book is available for purchase, here . 

I have not  followed this story to any degree. However, a news story I just read was so full of errors, I wanted to comment. These are technical comments for those interested. There is no such thing as a "thunderstorm higher than 50,000 feet" (above sea level) that does not show up on ground-based weather radar, provided the storm is within range of the radar and the radar is properly calibrated. This nonsense about a "phantom" storm is just that, nonsense. However, weather radars are few and far between in that part of the world. Second, there is no such thing as a thunderstorm, as described above, that does not show up on airborne weather radar, provided the radar is properly operated and calibrated. However,  there are quite a few pilots who do not properly use airborne radar. They leave the radar's antenna tilt fixed (say, -2°) and never touch it. That can keep the radar's signal above the storm and the storm is never seen by the crew. That is differ

Meant to post this earlier in the week: The two white spots are snow-covered Mauna Lea and Mauna Kea in Hawaii on Christmas Day.

AccuWeather is covering it here .

Noted environmentalist provides a genuinely insightful look at global warming that balances the benefits and risks. Highly recommended. It is posted here . Dr. Tol is hardly a climate skeptic which makes this essay all the more remarkable.

In the green areas: The current AccuWeather Regional Radar shows heavy rain falling in many areas. Please do not try to cross flooded areas: Turn around, don't drown.

The Northwest is the only region with widespread winter weather conditions. Pinks = winter storm warning. Blues = winter weather advisory (a lesser condition than a warning). The hunter green in Colorado is a winter storm watch. The browns along I-80 in southeast Wyoming is a high wind warning.

…I feel obliged to report that drinking seems to lead to a longer life. Study here . While a glass of wine daily seems fine, I would be very surprised if three glasses every day leads to a longer life. In other words, don't take it too literally.

Just saw the BookScan sales numbers for week before last and Warnings  did very well. Thanks very much. Hope all of you enjoy the book!

…a suggestion. What do readers think of Warnings? Your local bookstore has it or you can purchase it from Amazon or Barnes & Noble .

Another pint-sized 'study.' But, if you want to read the tiny details, go here .

Thanks so much to all of you who purchased Warnings  as a Christmas gift.  The ebook version of Warnings  has 16 extra color photos that we could not get into the hardcover version. So, if you received a Kindle or Nook for Christmas and are looking for a great book, just click on the respective links. This account of people who do something about the weather should appeal to just about anyone who enjoys talking about it.   --  Publisher's Weekly To be quite honest it is the best book I've read in years. I couldn't put it down and read the whole thing in a day and a half. I highly recommend it to anyone looking for an exciting book where you can learn something too.   --  Elysium While weather forecasters often appear starchy and bland, Smith makes the weather into an urgent concern, and a remarkable victory. This story turns the weather into a quest, and meteorologists into the most unlikely heroes in recent literature.                                   

Friday is the tenth anniversary of the horrible Boxing Day Tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands in the Indian Ocean region in 2004. From Secretary of State, John Kerry : I’ll never forget hearing the news of the tsunami that struck in the Indian Ocean 10 years ago. The images were gut-wrenching: entire towns razed from Indonesia to Somalia; raging waters sweeping away people’s homes; hundreds of thousands killed and many more separated from their families. Today of all days, we pause to remember those we lost—from farmers and fishers to travelers from our own lands. I know that there are no words to express such a horrific loss. There’s no way to wipe away the pain of parents who lost a child, or children who lost their parents and were forced to assume adult responsibilities at a tender age. We recognize the millions of people who contributed to the recovery effort. And we honor those who have continued to work in the years since to help the victims pick up the pieces

I-80 is closed in Wyoming. Snow is falling over a good part of the Rocky Mountain region. As much as 3" have already fallen in the Denver suburbs.

In the 1950's and 60's, there were many great corporate rivalries far beyond what we have today in the likes of Microsoft and Apple. There was Hertz versus Avis. Kelloggs versus Post cereals. One of the other great rivalries was Lionel electric trains versus American Flier. In that era, especially the 50's, an electric train was the ultimate  Christmas gift. So, I thought I'd excerpt pieces of an article that appeared three days ago in the Wall Street Journal . A New Yorker and a Midwesterner, a Polish Catholic and a Scots Presbyterian, an engineer and an English major—ours has been a marriage of opposites in many ways. With the approach of Christmas, I’m reminded of one more: American Flyer and Lionel. I was the Lionel, and lacking any brothers, my sister and I knew that the train was really Dad’s. In real life he was an engineer (not the train kind), but to children, the difference between being an engineer and being the engineer of our in-house Lionel lin

On behalf of Forecaster Evie, Mindy and myself, please let us wish you and yours the merriest of Christmases.

We are all used to looking at weather radar displays of reflectivity (radar's energy being scattered by precipitation) on television like the one below. It is of the Indianapolis NWS radar at 2pm EST. Below is a radar image of a type you've never seen before. It is from the same radar using a type of data known as "spectrum width" which correlates well to turbulence aloft (the radar was pointed up when we grabbed this image). I've circled two areas of especially turbulent air. Turbulence often takes a "wave" or banded form and you can certainly see that over southern Indiana with more diffuse turbulence over the northern part of the state. These images were from the same time and you can note that there is not much of a correlation between the turbulence and the intensity of the reflectivity data. The turbulence data was captured from AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions ' SmartWARN® system which is a workstation used exclusively by our meteorol

As of noon, the jet stream was located along the red arrows. The clouds in the circled area reveal quite a bit of turbulence in their banded appearance. This is a typical situation when strong turbulence occurs. The jet will slowly move east through this evening. With regard to the earlier turbulence forecast, the X symbols indicate where severe  turbulence has been reported by commercial airliners (the last two from an Airbus 320 and a Boeing 737). If you are planning to fly through the red circle, Stay in your seat unless absolutely necessary. In your seat, keep your seat belt on and pulled tight. Do not eat a big meal immediately before boarding. If you have airsickness medicine, take it before you board. 

Tornado watch continues in the Southeast. Widespread heavy rains in the East. Some rain now starting to change to snow in the Midwest. Radar at 12:20pm EST. I wish to reiterate the importance of the high wind warning and watches (browns). In some spots, winds could gust to 50-60 mph later tonight and tomorrow causing power failures and downed tree limbs. Please be prepared. The blue is where the accumulating snow is still expected this afternoon and tonight.  This will be the last Christmas Eve travel update. Hope they have been helpful. 

While I realize this is coded information, I want to make an important point: It is a report of severe  turbulence near Grand Rapids, Michigan from a regional jet that was sent with urgent priority. Severe turbulence is rare. I am a very frequent flier and have experienced it exactly once (in a thunderstorm). If your flight is scheduled to fly through the oval I have drawn, please keep your seat belt tight, don't get up more than necessary and don't eat a big meal right before take off. Addition: I plotted a map (courtesy, NWS Aviation Weather Center) of the current reports of turbulence and their short term forecast of moderate or greater turbulence (brown tint). The area of turbulence will expand and increase during the afternoon to, more or less, the red oval above.

In the West: Lots and lots of snow at higher elevations. Pink is for winter storm warnings. Blue is for a winter weather advisory. Gray is for dense fog. Dark green is a winter storm watch. Brown is a high wind warning. In the South: A tornado watch is in effect until 2pm. For Chicago and surrounding areas: The worst of the winter storm is forecast to just barely miss O'Hare with 1-2 inches of snow and Midway may have 1-3 inches. That will still cause delays this afternoon. New England: The purple is a freezing rain advisory. Green is flood advisories. Browns are high wind forecasts. Airport Delays as of 8am CST Philadelphia:   1 hour San Francisco:   56 minutes JFK:  15 minutes Delays are forecast to increase as the day progresses.

I never thought I would see this bit of honesty (good for him!) from Dr. John Holdren, the White House Science Advisor. He tells us (jump to 1:06, if you wish) that global warming is saving us from a catastrophic ice age, a point many of us have made! Warming means longer growing seasons and more food for the billions of people on earth. With colder temperatures, we could not possibly grow enough food and famine would take the lives of millions. In addition, we would use much more energy and energy prices would soar. The poorest would suffer the most. Thank you, Dr. Holdren, for your candor. Now, let's get on with adapting to the comparatively minor (compared to an ice age) issues brought by a warming climate.

Please click to see details.  Although it is somewhat last minute, waivers have been issued. Above are United's. If you don't want to deal with a potential hassle of changing planes at Chicago, you have a couple of options: Go through O'Hare or Midway before noon.  The rain will change to snow midday and continue in the afternoon with high winds and limited visibility.  Re-route to avoid Chicago. As I mentioned yesterday, instead of flying (United in this example) from Oklahoma to O'Hare to Grand Rapids fly Oklahoma City to Denver to Grand Rapids. Yes, it is more miles but the weather in Denver will be good and you should fly over the storm.  There is much more information at the red link above. The weather forecast is here . 

As of 4:20pm CST. Bright red = tornado warnings. Maroon = flash flood warnings. Amber = severe thunderstorm warnings for damaging winds. Green = flash flood watch. Please continue to monitor local warning sources.  In addition to the tornado threat, I am very concerned about flash flooding as darkness falls. Some areas of southeast Alabama and western Georgia may have a storm total rainfall of 10 inches or more. Do not drive into flooded areas, turn around, don't drown!

Near Columbia, MS via Twitter and "Fire the Union Thugs" (sorry for the name). There are reports of people trapped in homes in the Columbia area. The same tornado, farther northeast, northwest of Ellsville, MS. via Jacob DeFinch and Twitter. Tornado watches continue (scroll down). Please closely monitor the weather if you live in these areas.

Several damaging tornadoes have already occurred today. This new tornado watch is in effect until 11pm CST. Please monitor local weather warnings in these areas. Earlier today: Via Twitter and Andy Cunningham. North shore area north of New Orleans. Via Twitter and Tangipahoa Parish (LA) government.

2:41pm. Tornado near Sumrall, MS.  2:38pm update. Tornado at arrow at that time moving NE at 45 mph. Hattiesburg circled for reference. Take cover if you are in the red polygon. Damage confirmed.  -Original Posting- Doppler wind display from 2:23pm, the tornado is moving northeast. Damage is confirmed. Tornado threat will likely extend farther east where a tornado watch will likely be issued (red outline).