Why I am So Worried About the NEXT Big Hurricane
We've previously talked about the record length of time (now beyond 9 years) without a major (category 3 or above) hurricane striking the United States. We are virtually certain to get to at least 9.5 years, the previous record was six.
Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has charted the frequency of major hurricanes striking Florida and it is striking.
From 1900 to 1957, Florida has 17 major hurricanes. From 1958 to 2014 (also 57 years) has had 9. The interval, on average, between major storms is increasing (red line).
Why is this important? American and American industry are highly mobile. People change locations and retire. The number of emergency managers, in both the public and private sectors, who have experience with major hurricanes is diminishing. Based on recent conversations I have had with companies in the South, some seem to believe hurricanes are not the threat we know them to be. Mother Nature can be fickle. Florida had four major hurricanes in two years, 2004 and 2005.
Social science clearly teaches us that people who have survived a weak hurricane believe they can survive a strong hurricane. This sets up a potential catastrophe the next time a major hurricane threatens Florida.
Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has charted the frequency of major hurricanes striking Florida and it is striking.
Why is this important? American and American industry are highly mobile. People change locations and retire. The number of emergency managers, in both the public and private sectors, who have experience with major hurricanes is diminishing. Based on recent conversations I have had with companies in the South, some seem to believe hurricanes are not the threat we know them to be. Mother Nature can be fickle. Florida had four major hurricanes in two years, 2004 and 2005.
Social science clearly teaches us that people who have survived a weak hurricane believe they can survive a strong hurricane. This sets up a potential catastrophe the next time a major hurricane threatens Florida.
If you are worried about physical infrastructure, I agree with you. I don't mean roads and bridges either - I mean power and cellular grid. But if you are worried about technology infrastructure - I disagree. The dependency of locally hosted technology is diminishing and continues to do so - more and more companies have data centers and Disaster Recovery (DR) sites well away from their "home offices". That and the continued adoption of "Cloud" solutions means we are actually better prepared now then we were 10 years ago...ASSUMING of course the physical infrastructure can be rapidly restored. How people react - yeah that's always a concern.
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