KGOU FM in Norman, Oklahoma, has a great article about how to prepare for tornado season that looks like it will begin in earnest this week: Have a plan Have three ways to receive warnings Understand that Twitter and Facebook may not accurately reflect the situation Know the counties near where you live Understand the safest places to seek shelter and what to wear Accept that a tornado can hit you The details for each of those points are here .

This map was assembled by Dr. Ted Fujita and his survey team after one of the 2 or 3 worst tornado outbreaks in U.S. history: click to enlarge What weather science learned from investigating this outbreak changed the entire warning system for the better. I discuss this in Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather .  A new 5-Star review of Warnings  was posted at Amazon last week. It says, Really interesting book on how the warnings systems have progressed through the years. Did not realize the early links between air disasters and the building of the warning system. The pictures of the damage really help to bring the scope and importance of the warning system home. Unfortunately, it is likely multiple tornadoes will occur in the central U.S. this week. While the National Weather Service, television meteorologists, emergency managers and private sector meteorologists will almost certainly do their normal great job, their efforts only pay off if you ...

Immediate issue: Blizzard Orange = blizzard warning. Light green is a blizzard watch, both for tonight and Monday. Pink is a winter storm warning. Dark green is a winter storm watch. As the week progresses: Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes . It is too soon to start posting maps. That said, if you are in the Great Plains and Midwest, pay attention to the weather starting Tuesday.

Last week, I wrote about vile global warming politics . That included coverage of one of a number of college professors that want to jail people like me who do not believe global warming is a major problem. Unfortunately, they keep crawling out of the woodwork . Look, I get this topic is confusing to a lot of people. They read a lot of nonsense in the newspaper or they see Al Gore's movie and they have no way of knowing the movie is loaded with errors. So, I ask this basic question: If the facts were on your side, would you call for jailing those that disagree? Of course not. These are the last gasps before they lose all credibility if temperatures continue to fail to rise. This week, you'll read about a new IPCC report and you will hear a lot of hot air from politicians about coming together to fix the weather. All that does not change the fact that earth's temperature has not risen for 17 years, even though climate 'science' forecast temperatures to rapidly...

Governments spend tens of billions  of dollars tilting at the global warming windmill; enriching no one but Al Gore and a cadre of climate 'scientists' making dubious 'contributions.' Or, you can chose to be part of an organization that actually makes a different in peoples' lives and does so by spending our own money doing so. I've chosen the latter, the Rotary Club of Wichita. After watching the video, I hope you will check out your local Rotary Club . Whether it is providing nutrition and an education to children in Haiti or wiping out polio worldwide, Rotary makes a difference every day.

From the European model the next ten days' precipitation: And, for the Plains, One comment: I believe Kansas is too dry in this forecast.

Winter storm (dark green) and blizzard (light green) watches are in effect for Sunday night and Monday. This winter just won't seem to end.

That is how a new review of Warnings  at Amazon is titled. It goes on to say, Really interesting book on how the warnings systems have progressed through the years. Did not realize the early links between air disasters and the building of the warning system.  You can read the entire interview, and 40 others, here . This summer is the 20th anniversary of the taming of the downburst making you and everyone that boards and airliner much safer. With storm season underway, now is a great time to read Warnings. 

Nighttime tornado watches are especially dangerous. Tornado warning northeast of Houston. People in Dayton, Liberty, and Kenefick should be in shelter. Please monitor the weather if you live in these areas.

Joplin friends…it's that time of year again.  Mike Smith's book is full of good information about tornado season.                                                                 ---Susan Mertens, Joplin resident With yesterday's destructive tornadoes in Missouri and the forecast of more many tornadoes next week, the 2014 tornado season is here. When the Sirens Were Silent   goes behind the scenes and explains what went horribly wrong on May 22, 2011, causing the loss of 161 lives. In addition to the gripping minute-by-minute account of the tornado, there are lift out pages with the tornado safety rules for home, for work, and for the office. We priced the ebook (the print version sold out months ago) to be easily affordable at $2.99 and it available from Amazon (Kindle or free online reader) or Barnes ...

Wall Street Journal, David Klein Matt Ridley has an insightful piece on the Op-Ed page of the Wall Street Journal  about global warming. The entire piece is at the link and I wholeheartedly recommend reading it. His final paragraph: Almost every global environmental scare of the past half century proved exaggerated including the population "bomb," pesticides, acid rain, the ozone hole, falling sperm counts, genetically engineered crops and killer bees. In every case, institutional scientists gained a lot of funding from the scare and then quietly converged on the view that the problem was much more moderate than the extreme voices had argued. Global warming is no different. Couldn't have said it better myself.

ISU professor blames climate change for salamander shrinkage From the Des Moines Register . 

Here is the tornado threat with the significant threat in brown: There is a very significant threat of large hail with hailstones of more than 2" in the hatched area. If you live in these areas, please keep up on today's weather.

Here is the radar at 5:16pm.

Yellow polygon = severe thunderstorm warning for large hail and damaging winds. The thunderstorm is moving northeast. The inset photo, taken by Cat Morsberger, shows the storm when it was near Lawrence. Two other storms are strengthening near Olathe and Spring Hill. Storms are moving rapidly northeast.

Until 8pm CDT. At 12:56pm, radar shows thunderstorms developing along the west edge of the tornado watch and moving northeast.

A new reader review of When the Sirens Were Silent  has been posted at Amazon. It says , It's a quick read but raises some very good questions about the actions that were or were not taken that fateful day in Joplin's history. It will also bring up points that could well save your life. Since the government's tornado warning system began in 1957, the Joplin storm is the only tornado to cause a triple-digit death toll (161). A lot went wrong that day, the When the Sirens Were Silent  tells this "behind the scenes" story. It also includes vital information on tornado safety for the school, office, and home. The print version sold out months ago but it is available in ebook form for only $2.99 and you can read it on your computer's screen or load the Kindle or Nook version.

After yesterday evening's California tornadoes (see below), there is a threat of tornadoes in the Ozarks region very late this afternoon and evening: There is also a chance of damaging thunderstorm winds: For Friday and Friday night, there is a chance of tornadoes and very large hail (hatched) in the yellow areas: If you live these areas, please keep an eye on the weather. 

The following was posted on the Warnings  Facebook page by Debra Wallace Karina and it is used here with permission: Mike, we brought my Mom here from Chicago so she could get out of the weather there and get better after a bad fall and hospital stay. While she is recouping here in KS, she took a look at all my books in the bookcase in my living room. She found your  book after checking out some others books I have, and then she spent a lot of time reading it. Then she said that she really loved your book ( Warnings) and all the content was very interesting too. I wanted to share this with you. She said you were a great author!  This is an especially good time to read Warnings.  Tornado season is beginning, it will likely be an active hurricane season, and this summer makes a major two-decade milestone in aviation safety. All of this will be more meaningful if you have read this 5-Star book .

Interesting story from The Seattle Times . 

On radar, this tornado looked just like one in the Great Plains. It was located east I-5 near the town of Willows. This wasn't the typical "landspout"-type central California tornado but was one capable of considerable damage had it been in a populated area.

Earlier today, I posted the latest peer-reviewed science that indicates U.S. weather is getting milder as a result of global warming, especially as it pertains to agriculture . More good news this afternoon (h/t Roger Pielke, Jr.), "no [rain] gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, globally widespread change in the magnitude or frequency of floods during the last decades" Global warming: What's not to like?

There is an elevated threat of severe thunderstorms, and possibly a tornado or two, in the yellow area. In the hatched area, there is the potential for wind gusts in excess of 75 mph and, perhaps, a violent tornado. Of course, I'll update this tomorrow. Tornado season is getting underway.

The name of the paper is Trends in Extreme United States Temperatures  and it is published in "Journal of Climate." The paper reports temperatures are becoming less extreme. And, even better, with a warming trend in nighttime temperatures, the growing season is longer and agricultural productivity increases. The paper goes on to state, The results show that monthly maximum temperatures are not often greatly changing — perhaps surprisingly, there are many stations that show some cooling. In contrast, the minimum temperatures show significant warming. Via Anthony Watts, link below AccuWeather's Steve Pryor and I have found exactly the same trends in Kansas. Our data also indicates precipitation, over all, is becoming more reliable. Anthony Watts has more, here . To those of us who are actually looking at the science, none of this is a surprise. To summarize global warming in the United States so far: Fewer hurricanes, fewer violent tornadoes, less extreme temper...

From CBS News… click to enlarge Fourteen deaths and scores missing. If you would like to learn about the weather conditions preceding the slide, click here . UPDATE 8:48PM CDT:

Lt. Ernie Fawbush and Lt. Robert Miller made the first accurate tornado forecast in modern history at Tinker, AFB, Oklahoma. Miller (left) and Fawbush There is a gripping account of how that forecast was made and its contribution to how weather scientists tamed (not "conquered") tornadoes in Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather . Want to read it today? It is available in ebook for both Kindle and Nook . Warnings  has a 5-Star rating at both Barnes & Noble and Amazon. As one reviewer put it: Smith skillfully makes this and other controversies seem not just important, but exciting. Meteorology, in his telling, has the same bare-knuckle energy we see in politics or sports. These battles, many of which Smith himself fought in, reveal how much of our modern, weather-safe lifestyle is contingent on personalities, and could have gone another way. While weather forecasters often appear starchy and bland, Smith makes the weather into an urgent co...

Great article from the Kansas City Star .  I agree with it: They need people to move there. The people I've met in Greensburg are just terrific.

Note at 8:42am Tuesday: Map still valid.  Blizzard conditions are forecast for Cape Cod, eastern Maine and the Maritimes. AccuWeather has details here .

Barry Myers, the CEO of AccuWeather and I wrote an article about the future of weather and climate science and how young people, especially in China, can participate. You can read the article here in English or, if you are so inclined,  in Chinese .

I need to begin by stating that Roger Pielke, Jr. is a friend of mine. Roger was a member of the board of directors of WeatherData, Inc. and we have remained friends since. I have a high opinion of his intellect and integrity. Roger has been subjected to vociferous personal attacks this past week for having the temerity to accurately  write that disasters (when adjusted for inflation and normalized by national wealth), so far, have not increased due to global warming. Judy Curry tells the full story here . Judy is a climate scientist and former believer in catastrophic global warming. As the scientific case for the catastrophic part of global warming has crumbled the last decade, her views have changed. Fine. That is how things are supposed to work. The evidence changes, views change. Right? Unfortunately, that is not how things work in climate 'science.' Judy wrote Thursday: As recently as 5 years ago, I never thought I’d live to see the day when I am very gratefu...

Ever drive on I-70 between Salina, Kansas, and Denver, and wonder about the spectacular church south of the highway near Hays? It has received a major honor from the Catholic Church. Travis Heying, Wichita Eagle It has been named a "minor basilica" -- one of very few in the United States. The Wichita Eagle  has details .

What happens when a dust devil wanders into a controlled burn of a field of tumbleweeds? Another example of why fighting wildfires is dangerous work.

More, if you want to bother, is here .

…until tomorrow morning due to basketball. Please call again.  

Just click here .

Please excuse the interruption in our meteorological musings. All three Kansas schools are playing this afternoon and evening in the NCAA Basketball Tourney with the (cumulatively) highest seeds ever. Enjoy March Madness!!

It is here . You'll enjoy reading it.

A fascinating video as the madness begins.

A point made over and over again on this blog and elsewhere. Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has the details .

Was asked (see below) whether the change in pattern I'm expecting about the first of the month will be for a couple of weeks or longer term. The answer is, I don't know. That said, there are at least four storms expected to affect the west and central United States between March 27 and April 20 and a guess for the end of the month. Where the thin solid lines take a curved dip to the south = a storm. More blue = greater intensity. March 27 March 31 April 3 April 15 April 18 Total Precipitation from April 18 to 28 Conclusion? Beyond about 10 days, these patterns are tenuous. Still, the month of April looks like an improvement in the probability of rain for the western half of the United States.