This Book Should Be Required Reading for EVERY Public Official

By -
Via Twitter, 12:40am Wednesday in Atlanta and it is still gridlock.
I debated whether to write post praising my own book. Decided not to. Then, late Tuesday evening, I started reading about the blame meteorologists, of all people, are getting for the public works and school fiasco in Georgia. That changed my mind.

FACT: A winter storm warning was issued between 3 and 4am Tuesday for the Atlanta Metro area. Schools should have been called off. Instead, they decided to have school. People have been (as of this writing) trapped in their cars for 10-12 hours. There are still school buses, full of children, trapped. People may die.
Atlanta, 12:30am Wednesday. Utter gridlock.
As we have discussed on this blog over and over, the progress in storm warning quality in the last five to ten years is remarkable. Even I have been surprised at the rate of progress. The problem is, people remember a busted forecast from 20 years ago and think nothing has changed. They often do not act on the forecasts with tragic results.
My book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather tells how this progress came about in a very readable fashion. Once read, it will make CEO's, administrators, mayors, governors and others in positions of responsibility to make their weather-related decisions based on the best thinking of expert meteorologists. The book has a 5-star rating for its readability.

Here is an excerpt of a review posted at Amazon by an emergency manager:

'Warnings' is higly educational, but it reads nothing like a textbook. The writing is engaging and entertaining from cover to cover."

You can read the review in its entirety at the red link.

As a society, the United States simply cannot continue to put people in jeopardy due to a lack of faith in weather forecasts. So, I am making this offer: For any bona fide public official (mayor, school superintendent, governor) in the states of Georgia or Alabama who will request a copy on their official letterhead, I will send a free copy -- no shipping or any charge at all -- up to 100 copies. The requests must be received by February 7.

For everyone else, if you would like to read it while you are snowed in, the ebook version (with 16 extra color photographs) for Kindle is here and for Nook is here. Based on both professional reviewers and reader reviews, you'll learn a lot while having an enjoyable reading experience.

Send requests to:
Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC
4031 N. Tara Circle
Wichita, Kansas  67226

Comments

  1. UnknownJanuary 29, 2014 at 12:31 AM

    Unfortunately, the Atlanta lesson was, in many ways, a repeat of what happened in Raleigh back in 2005. Greg & I pulled together a presentation on what happened then.

    https://ams.confex.com/ams/36Broadcast/techprogram/paper_140430.htm

    Meanwhile, here in NC, the schools in Raleigh called off for today based on the forecast that had the precip starting here early afternoon. We had drier air than expected to start, so the precip didn't click in until around commute time, a couple hours late. Naturally, folks jumped all over the school system. One of the officials posted this explaining (quite well, I think) their reasoning:

    http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s06330

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithJanuary 29, 2014 at 12:36 AM

    Nate: I flew into Raleigh two days after and the freeways looked like a tornado had it. Cars off to the side everywhere.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mike SmithJanuary 29, 2014 at 12:38 AM

    I just read the school posting at your link. Just direct the critics' attention to ATL.

    ReplyDelete
  4. JayTeeJanuary 29, 2014 at 7:45 AM

    Thanks Mike. I hope some of the public officials here take you up on the offer. They could learn from the book.

    ReplyDelete
  5. LeslieJanuary 29, 2014 at 9:03 AM

    The sad part is, both the public AND the public officials seem to ignore common sense.
    All they had to do was look at the radar and realize that even if this storm hadn't "over performed", it was still going to be a paralyzing event.
    To think of the miracle that is weather radar and how little people appreciate it makes me respect Darwin that much more.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Jim BerryJanuary 29, 2014 at 1:05 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jim BerryJanuary 29, 2014 at 1:11 PM

    Anyone who doubts the NWS forecast should carefully read the "forecast discussions" issued by the Peachtree City office (Atlanta) starting MONDAY at 4:30am: - a full day before the event unfolded.

    Specifically, NWS begins their discussion with: "...WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAINS LIKELY..." and later writes: "SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...NOW HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SNOW ACROSS ENTIRE ATLANTA METRO".

    Forecaster Deese, who authored this discussion, also writes: "PERSONALLY FAVOR PRECIP SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS PROJECT WHICH WOULD IN THIS CASE BRING WINTER HAZARDS NORTHWARD AS WELL."

    Again, this discussion was written on the MONDAY morning discussion released at 4:30! There is little ambiguity in this forecast and it’s a mystery why government officials were so lax in heeding a well-written warning in what should have been a slam-dunk decision to close schools and government offices on Tuesday.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Shaun MichaelsJanuary 29, 2014 at 1:18 PM

    I've heard that the decision to not close schools in Atlanta is because they didn't want to lose government funding for a day. By keeping schools open until noon, they got funding for a full day.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Mike SmithJanuary 29, 2014 at 1:34 PM

    This is what AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions appended to its forecast for ATL calling for 1-3" of snow: "The ice and snow amounts indicated here, spread over a large area generally unaccustomed to seeing winter storms of this magnitude, will bring transport and logistical operations to a virtual standstill. Delays and cancellations will cripple air, ground, and rail travel for days."

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more