The Weekend Storm

Here is the latest:

Tornadoes and Severe Thunderstorms

I continue to believe the NWS Storm Prediction Center's Forecast for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the red area is correct. If the thunderstorms fire far enough west, they could disrupt Dallas air travel. By Saturday night, Memphis air travel may be disrupted. 

Houston meteorologist Larry Cosgrove commented earlier today that there could be "wicked" tornadoes in eastern Texas and the Ark-La-Tex area. This is something residents and travelers should monitor.

Flooding

Over the next 5-days as much as six inches of rain are forecast to fall. This could lead to flooding, especially in the Ohio Valley.

Freezing Rain

This computer-generated map is odd to me. It shows the probability of 0.01 inches or more of freezing rain from noon Central time Thursday to noon Saturday. The eastern area will be earlier in the period and, in the Plains, the freezing rain would be Saturday, if this forecast is correct. 

However, this looks to be low-confidence to me with the exception of central and/or northern Missouri which might have up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain Saturday.

Snow

My confidence is growing that accumulating snow will fall and my confidence as to its placement is growing, as well. It is the amounts now in question.

The placement of the snow is looking pretty consistent with the exception of northern Illinois. I still believe those planning to fly to or through Chicago Sunday may have problems. Same is true with Milwaukee. If it is possible to go the day before, it might be a good idea. 

The European model, which is often the more reliable, is showing heavier snows. The U.S. GFS is considerably lighter. 

12Z ECMWF 

18Z GFS

I'm not giving snow accumulation forecasts as yet because I'm not sufficiently confident. However, I do plan to provide those tomorrow morning.