5:30pm Thursday: Complete Weekend Storm Update

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Flooding

 Here is the forecast precipitation amounts through Christmas Day.
There is a long stripe of 4+inch amounts from Arkansas to near Dayton. As a result, there are flash flood watches out (see below).

Advisories
WSW = winter storm watch. I'm surprised there is a gap in southeast Kansas. The freezing rain advisory covers up a number of areas also under a winter storm watch. The hunter green areas are under a flash flood watch due to the forecast heavy rains for the weekend.

Snow Accumulation

I'm going to show three models. If you average them, you get a pretty good idea of the range of expected amounts.
12Z GFS
18Z GFS
12Z ECMWF
Freezing Rain
12Z GFS
12Z Multi-Model Composite
Freezing rain is a difficult issue for the computer models. My best estimate is that the freezing rain will develop in Oklahoma after 12:01am Saturday morning, including I-35. Keep in mind that Oklahoma is far enough south they do not have enough equipment to quickly respond to deteriorating road conditions. Earlier is better with this storm!  On Saturday, freezing rain and snow will spread over the region with time.

The tornado and severe thunderstorm threat has not changed since this morning's update.

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