The report is out about the horrific Yarnell Hill wildfire in Arizona June 30th that lead to the death of 19 elite firefighters. The report is thorough. I was sorry, but not surprised, to learn that incompatible radio frequencies again played a role in a public service tragedy. I'm not sure why this same problem persists so many years after September 11 and in spite of all of the subsequent calls to remedy it. However, I was struck by this statement which is reiterated several times  in the report: The weather update accurately forecast the wind shift that drove the fire toward the firefighters. A thunderstorm's outflow boundary (gust front) caused the wind to shift and increase with gusts to 50 mph. This helped doom the firefighters. The report makes clear, without stating it explicitly, the implications of the outflow boundary were either not fully digested and/or not fully believed. As meteorologist Dr. Cliff Mass reported shortly after the tragedy, the meteorolo...

Dr. Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory has an interesting article here .

I was home sick earlier this week, watching television while answering email, and saw one of the funniest things I have seen on television in a while. House MD - Midnight Train to Georgia from selman bozkurt on Vimeo . The "House" rendition of Midnight Train to Georgia. Enjoy.

Up to 7am CDT. Rains are falling farther east as this is being published.

Radar at 6:26pm CDT. Yellow polygons are large hail severe thunderstorm warnings. Storms moving northeast at 35 mph. click to enlarge Radar at 6:27pm. See below for more info on the severe thunderstorm and Friday night football threat. Last update on this threat.

We don't normally cover severe thunderstorm watches on the blog unless the meteorological threat is extraordinary. Making an exception because of the popularity of high school football in this region and the fact this severe thunderstorm watch is in effect from now until 1am CDT Saturday morning. The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting hail to 1" in diameter and wind gusts to 70 mph along with the threat of deadly lightning from these storms. Games should be suspended and everyone move to shelter if lightning approaches.  There is a second area where the storms may intensify as the evening progresses (blue scallops): In both areas, the storms will generally move from southwest to northeast at 35 mph (i.e., a half-mile per minute).  I have a full set of school and football safety rules at Answers.com . Note: I'm not live-blogging the storms this evening. 

The new IPCC report is out. I'm in too good a mood to tackle it this afternoon, so I'm turning things over to Dr. Judy Curry ...  Note the changes in these two statements from the final draft discussed last week: “Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10   –15 years.” “It is extremely likely that human influence on climate caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951−2010.” These changes as a result of the ‘conclave’ this week totally dissonates my cognitives.  and to Cartoons by Josh...

I haven't posted a tornado risk in quite a while. We have one for this afternoon and tonight. The 5% threshold is significant, so please keep an eye out later today.

And, here is a new Amazon review of  When the Sirens Were Silent: " Short, powerful, well-researched book...." Sirens  is the story of what went wrong in the Joplin tornado and why so many unnecessarily died. It is completely sold-out in softcover but available in Kindle for deliberately low price of $2.99 . I want people to read this book as it will help save lives with complete tornado safety rules for office, school, and home. For those that prefer the Nook platform, it is available here for the same low price. If you live east of the Continental Divide, you'll want to read this book.

Here is a white paper I just wrote for AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions . I think you'll find it interesting. Just click on the link.

5-Star review pertains to the Kindle version: If I were to tell you that I just read a history on the growth/improvement of tornado forecasting techniques in the 20th century, you'd probably think it sounded dull. Well, you'd be wrong. This book is anything but dull. Applied meteorologist (and weather entrepreneur) Mike Smith has written a lively look at how tornado forecasting tools and techniques have improved during the past 50+ years and how these improvements have saved many, many lives. He's got a great writing style and a knack for explaining complicated things in a simple, straightforward manner. I really enjoyed the book, especially those parts dealing with tornadoes. Various government agencies, such as the FAA and the Weather Bureau (later, the National Weather Service) let politics and turf wars get in the way of better serving the public, in terms of issuing warnings and disseminating information. This was eye-opening to me... The Kindle version has 16...

This is 40 years ago today, the long-track Salina, Kansas, tornado. It gets really interesting at about about 2:00.

Just ahead of the release of the IPCC's report, Popular Science   terminates comments on its articles . The editor tells us: Comments can be bad for science. That's why, here at PopularScience.com, we're shutting them off. Of course, that is the exact opposite of the scientific method . The scientific community provides a system of checks and balances that ensures the quality of scientific work, double-checks  arguments , and makes sure that ideas are evaluated fairly. This scrutiny can serve a few different functions — from fact-checking to whistleblowing: The community evaluates evidence and ideas.  Scientists describe their work at  conferences , in  journal articles, and in books. By disseminating their ideas, study methods, and test results in these ways, scientists allow other community members to check their work, both by reviewing what has been done and trying to  replicate  all or part of it. This helps to ensure that evidence ...

So pro-global warming writers can write articles like this : WASHINGTON (AP) — Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill. They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous. By doing so, they attempt to influence public opinion before the study is even officially released . Ladies and gentlemen, it is mostly about spin. As we have previously discussed, I believe there is a 100% chance humans affect the climate . We've known that since the Metromex study of the early 1970's. Where I strongly disagree with the IPCC, They believe the sun and cosmic rays play a trivial role in climate.  They believe (simplifying) there is a one-to-one relationship between CO2 and earth's temperature. As t...

I have a big respect for the Capital Weather Gang's work at The Washington Post  and I am appreciative of the times they have asked my opinion on various issues. So, given that level of respect, this headline today caught my attention: I wanted to learn more. The story told us that the earth is going to warm (no surprise there), it quotes two government scientists that praise the study (no surprise there), and a little about the study's methodology. After reading the CWG story and parts of the study itself, I found things didn't add up. Let's call the study which forecasts more tornadoes the "Diffenbaugh study" after its lead author. It begins by telling us, There is now considerable evidence that the occurrence and intensity of climate extremes have been increasing in recent decades, and that continued global warming likely will amplify these changes (1). For those unfamiliar with scientific papers, the "(1)" is a footnote referring to a...

Current image of the sun. There is one normal size spot in the southern hemisphere. There are a few very small spots elsewhere. Even The New York Times  is publishing stories about the sun's highly unusual behavior. Because the Maunder Minimum in sunspot activity (mentioned in the article) is believed to have caused or influenced the Little Ice Age , it leads to concerns that the earth may cool going forward.  I don't have an opinion as to whether the earth will cool other than the sun's behavior and effects on earth's climate is just as valid a field of research as global warming. Why? Cooling would be far worse for humanity than warming. 

Badly needed rain forecast for the central third of the United States. I believe this is just the beginning. This forecast runs from today to day 7. I believe additional rains will fall days 8 through 10.

It is not practical or cost effective to have National Weather Service offices in every town. So, meteorology relies on volunteer observers (I'm one) to measure rainfall and certain other readings. Here is the Boulder cooperative observer taking the historic rainfall reading. Out-of-banks Skunk Creek is in the background. ADDITION: I wrote this during the flooding in Colorado ten days ago. I've added this tribute to a cooperative observer.

In addition to this blog, my professional speaking, and my duties at Vice President at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions , I'm now writing for Answers.com about weather . Come over and check it out.

Consumers from California to Switzerland are developing a taste for dark chocolate, taking a bite out of global cocoa supplies and driving up candy prices in both high-end boutiques and mass-market drugstores. The cost of one kilogram of chocolate in the U.S. is expected to hit a record $12.25 this year, a 45% increase from 2007, according to market-research firm Euromonitor International. Prices are on the rise due to a shortage of cocoa beans, which are roasted and ground to make chocolate. Market experts estimate that supplies will fall short of demand this year for the first time since 2010 and dry weather is expected to hurt the next harvest in West Africa, where 70% of cocoa beans are produced. Yes, I'm one of the people that loves dark chocolate.  Full details here .

The Wichita Flight Festival is next weekend. Every year it is a spectacular salute to aviation from the "Air Capital of the World." Come and Visit Us! Note: Link was broken, now fixed.

A great story here . (Link was broken, now fixed.)

I don't cover international storms on the blog. AccuWeather, being the world's leading commercial weather company does, of course. Here is the latest . Two items of note: "Typhoon" is simply another name for hurricane. One billion  people a day get information from AccuWeather. We are opening an office in Beijing later this year.

I have a new article up at Answers.com about storm warnings' effectiveness . If you have any questions about weather, storms, warning strategy, or anything else involving weather or climate, feel free to post them in the comment area below. Look forward to answering them.

With the exception of a flash flood threat in West Virginia and along the Gulf Coast, most of the nation is going to enjoy the day. Get outside and enjoy it!!

Pacific hurricane Manuel will feed moisture in ahead of a cold from and very heavy rains will likely result: Here are the forecast rainfall amounts: click to enlarge AccuWeather has the full story.

Others are quick to pronounce climate science bunk.    David Rose wrote in the  Daily Mail  ‘A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong.’ Hayley Dixon in  The Telegraph  put it less blatant but still succinct in her opening sentence: ‘A leaked draft of a report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is understood to concede that the computer predictions for global warming and the effects of carbon emissions have been proved to be inaccurate.’ --From Germany's Klimazwiebel blog via Anthony Watts We often hear about the alleged 'consensus' pertaining to catastrophic global warming. In a few days, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is going to release its next report. According to leaks, it will say they are 95% certain humans affect the client. I believe the real number is 100%. Humans do affect the climate. However, I do not believe ...

Moments ago, I captured this image of a thunderstorm moving into Medicine Lodge, Kansas. How did I know it was moving  into Medicine Lodge? Because I time-lapsed the radar and it showed northeast movement. We take animated, color radar for granted these days. I wrote a piece on the subject of how this came to be at the suggested of an Answers.com editor. You can read how the weather became colorized, here . 

The usual suspects are attributing the Colorado floods to global warming . This is factually incorrect. Here is a graph of world temperatures with arrows point to the major flood events in and around Boulder, Colorado. Moving from left to right, the leftmost arrow points to world temperatures when the previous record high flood occurred on Boulder Creek. The second arrow was the wettest day in Boulder history prior to last week. The third arrow points to the world temperature during the Big Thompson Canyon flood of 1976 that killed 140. The final arrow is last week (actually, it points to last month's temperature). As you can see, flash floods occur in the Boulder over a wide range of world temperatures. They have not  become more common with the warmer temperatures recently observed.  Second, a recent U.S. Geological Survey study says floods are not getting worse due to CO2 increases. So, whether it is Boulder or the nation as a whole, global warming is not causin...

This blog attempts to assist people with assessing and mitigating the risks we encounter in the world. This editorial from the Las Vegas Review-Journal  makes a tremendous amount of sense: The TSA should go a lot further. So far, in fact, that the agency shuts down. It is beyond insane that TSA employees still pull aside grandfathers in wheelchairs, mothers with infants, and small children for pat-downs when no one with those profiles has ever carried out an act of terrorism on an airplane. This outrage will continue under the TSA’s new process. The idea that only 25 to 30 percent of daily airline passengers are low security risks is preposterous. A more accurate figure is 99.9999999 percent. The TSA might be the least-effective agency in the federal government — and that’s saying something. The agency sucks about $8 billion per year out of the economy to cover payroll and overhead, then consumes billions more through lost productivity and lost ticket sales; countless Ameri...

I have an article up at Answers.com on flood-proofing your life .

Mike was a guest speaker at the 53rd Annual AMEM Conference at Breezy Point Resort over the weekend where he addressed an audience of 400 emergency managers from all over the United States who were attending the four day long event. "How Storm Chasers and Emergency Managers Make Tornado Alley Safer"     Mike's presentation highlighted the important role storm casers an emergency managers have in  keeping the public safe and informed during the event of a tornado. He also honored the memory of Tim Samaras, his son and friend, who all gave their lives while saving others during the El Reno tornado last spring. Mike gave all the attendees a copy of his book WARNINGS: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather . 

A posting by Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. of Boulder on the frequency of the recent Colorado flood s that I believe you'll find to be of interest.

Just as Mexico is trying to recover from flooding from two tropical storms , there is a new threat. For the first time this hurricane season, I believe U.S. and Mexico residents need to keep advised as this storm has the potential to become a hurricane. Its future path is highly uncertain. AccuWeather has more.

Dr. Ross McKitrick today : ...since we are on the verge of seeing the emergence of data that could rock the foundations of mainstream climatology, this is obviously no time for entering into costly and permanent climate policy commitments based on failed model forecasts. The real message of the science is: Hold on a bit longer, information is coming soon that could radically change our understanding of this issue. This writer made the identical point on  June 24 and on previous occasions: ...this blog -- on the basis of the [ongoing] lack of warming buying us time -- has advised waiting until the end of 2014 before any decisions about global warming policy are made. That still seems like excellent advice. I recommend Ross's excellent article in its entirety (found at green link). As Dr. McKitrick explains, the statistical probability the models will be proven correct is around 2%, which will drop to zero if significant warming doesn't begin soon. I make the identical p...

I'm pleased to inform everyone that I am now the weather expert for Answers.com . My page is here . My first article is about flood-proofing your family . Of course, I remain Senior Vice President/Chief Innovation Executive at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions . And, I am still President of Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC. Please check out our new website . ADDITION: Here is an answer to a reader's question as to how color, animated radar came to be .

Following is verbatim: A leaked copy of the world’s most authoritative climate study reveals scientific forecasts of imminent doom were drastically wrong. The Mail on Sunday has obtained the final draft of a report to be published later this month by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ultimate watchdog whose massive, six-yearly ‘assessments’ are accepted by environmentalists, politicians and experts as the gospel of climate science.  They are cited worldwide to justify swingeing fossil fuel taxes and subsidies for ‘renewable’ energy. Yet the leaked report makes the extraordinary concession that the world has been warming at only just over half the rate claimed by the IPCC in its last assessment,  published in 2007.  Back then, it said that the planet was warming at a rate of 0.2C every decade – a figure it claimed was in line with the forecasts made by computer climate models.  But the new report says the true figure since 19...

From the Denver Post  this morning:  A list of closed highways and roads is here . More than 10,000  19,000 homes are damaged or destroyed. Details here . As a basis for comparison, seven thousand were destroyed in the giant Joplin tornado. Homeowners insurance covered those but does not cover flooding. It is unknown how many Coloradoans had flood insurance but my guess is that is was relatively low. Thus, an economic catastrophe awaits. The death toll is officially six. But, given the rising number of missing, I expect the total number of deaths to be in the double digits. The good news is the five-day rainfall amount forecast is for only light rains in the flood-stricken area:

AccuWeather celebrated its 50th birthday Thursday.  Photo of founder Dr. Joel Myers teaching meteorology at Penn State Thursday was the celebration of the 50 th anniversary of AccuWeather.  Mother Nature got in on the festivities with lightning and thunder two hours before the start of the event. For many companies, the event would have been moved indoors.Not AccuWeather: Our excellent forecasters said the rain would be over and temperatures mild at 5pm – and they were right on the money. Hundreds of guests flowed into the front entryway of AccuWeather’s World Headquarters for the occasion enjoying the food and drink. Our CEO, Barry Myers kicked off the addresses and introduced a number of political dignitaries that included the #2 Republican in the U.S. House of Representatives, Congressman Kevin McCarthy of California.  All of them noted AccuWeather’s lifesaving work and Joel’s creation of 400 jobs and their benefit to Pennsy...