Tornado Season in the Plains Should Start Next Week

While the vast majority of our readers will not recognize the 500mb chart below but it a weather pattern for early next week that should cause severe thunderstorms with possible tornadoes somewhere in the southern half of the Plains the first half of next week.

I bring this up because there wasn't much of an autumn tornado season in the Plains in 2012 and the spring 2012 season was way below normal in most areas. So, I don't want people to be complacent. Now is the time to check with your office and your child's school to make sure their preparation are in place.

I read this afternoon that some schools turn out their lights during tornado drills to simulate conditions that might occur with a power failure during the "real thing." I recommend making tornado drills as realistic as possible.

In addition to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, I believe there will be substantial rains over at least parts of the central United States.

Here is the ten day rainfall forecast from last night's European weather forecasting model.

And, here is the ten day rainfall forecast from today's European model.

Yes, the darkest area is a forecast of more than five inches.

Below is the amount of rain needed over the next four weeks to break the drought. If you would like to read the explanation of the chart, click here. The data does not include any rain that fell after 7am Saturday.

So, I expect expect the drought to be eased if the weather pattern evolves as I expect.