More on Why the "Impacts Based Warnings" Experiment is a Bad Idea

By -
Based on several weather discussion groups and tweets, my opinion of the National Weather Service's impact-based warnings experiment is not going over well with some. Fair enough. At least two have written that (paraphrasing) I should chill out because "it is just an experiment." [emphasis mine] That is sort of true. But, I object to the public being used as guinea pigs when the stakes are so high.

 This experiment could cost lives. That is why I am so opposed.

For the moment, let's disregard the fact that incorrectly warning people that "mass devastation" is about to occur -- with the storm then completely missing the warned area --  might cause people to disregard future warnings. That would be an indirect effect of this experiment.

It is entirely possible this experiment may cause a direct loss of life. Some weather scientists tell people in mobile homes and in other areas without shelters to get in their car and drive away from the tornado's path:

On April 14, 2012, the Wichita National Weather Service office told the people of Conway Springs, Kansas, "Debris will block most roadways. Mass devastation is highly likely making the area unrecognizable to survivors." Suppose you live in a mobile home or a house without a basement, you have heard the advice to "flee mobile homes" during tornado warnings, and you get that "tornado emergency" -- mass destruction is "highly likely" wording? So, you get in your car and flee Conway Springs.
Map of April 14 tornadoes (from Wichita NWS) west, south and east of Conway Springs
As you can see from the map, nothing happened in Conway Springs. But, if you had decided to follow the advice of meteorologists to "flee" you could have been killed by driving into one of the tornadoes that missed the town. By trying to scare ("mass devastation," "survivors," and similar language) people into taking shelter they might be induced to take action that costs them their lives.

While weather science can do a good job of warning of a tornadoes,  forecasts of movement and location are not accurate to the quarter mile nor do we have any skill at forecasting the mile-by-mile intensity of the storm. This is the crux of my objections.

I invite scientists who believe my facts are wrong to post comments.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn...
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...
Read more