Farm Belt Moisture Update

Let's begin with the amount of precipitation the last 48 hours.

click to enlarge any map

The above precipitation is not included in the map below that shows how much rain is needed to officially break the drought. The amounts below are in addition to the normal rainfall.

Flooding is starting to be a concern in parts of the Southeast. The dark green areas are already too wet. Plus, one to two inches fell (see map at top) in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia since 7am Saturday, when the data period for this map ended. There is also a moisture surplus around St. Louis.

So, what are the prospects for rain, especially as it pertains to the winter wheat crop, for the next month or so?

For the next seven days, this is the National Weather Service's rainfall forecast.

The above map takes us to about the first of April. How does April's rainfall look? I did posting on that last week. The data since then continues to be encouraging. Here is the U.S. April rainfall model output:

WeatherBell Models

Unfortunately, the European Model monthly rainfall outlook does not output for the month of April, so we cannot directly compare the U.S. and European. Still I've posted the European that runs through April 26.

AccuWeather Professional

Considering they don't cover exactly the same time periods, the agreement is quite good, which gives me a little additional confidence the drought will be more or less over by May 1 from Interstate 35 and points east, at least as far north as Des Moines.

Because of the importance of this topic, this will be the lead story on the until mid-morning Tuesday.