At midnight eastern time this evening, the 2012 hurricane season is officially over. AccuWeather has a terrific summary of the season here . I'm not posting a thumbnail because it is so cool, I want you to see it in its entirety.

Those of us living in the drought-striken areas of the United States and those that depend on moisture for a living or shipping have, for nearly two years, been anxiously watching for signs of rain. I may have found one. Meteorologists know that "teleconnections" -- what is occurring in one part of the atmosphere that can affect other parts of the atmosphere -- are an important element of long-range forecasting. One of the most important teleconnections for significant moisture in the central U.S. is the development of a high pressure system in the upper atmosphere in the Pacific around 130°W. Today's European model shows just that (arrow) in ten days. Once the high forms, storms are guided into the West then Central parts of the U.S. The United States' NWS Global Forecast System (GFS) which forecasts farther into the future than the European, shows exactly that occurring. Storm 1's forecast location on December 10. Storm 2's forecast location ...

The  crisis  surrounding the National Weather Service’s (NWS’s) handling of its assessment of the agency’s performance before and during Hurricane Sandy – including but not limited to the controversial decision not to issue hurricane warnings for the northeastern United States coastline – continues to deepen Meteorologist Nate Johnson makes some pointed observations and asks some pointed questions. You can read his entire piece here .

The day after the election, I congratulated President Obama and offered a number of suggestions related to weather forecasting and atmospheric science that I believe rise to the level of national issues. Here is a list offered by the pro-global warming group, Climate Central. While I disagree with at least two, they are well thought out and so I wanted to bring them to my readers. But, the more important point is how much we agree upon. It doesn't matter whether you are liberal or conservative: The prospect of losing satellite data and other critical meteorological infrastructure -- absolutely essential for forecasts and warnings -- is reaching the crisis level. These issues must be tackled sooner rather than later. 

Big governments face a similar quandary, and, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, a delicate management question is making the rounds: Is there a better way to enforce mandatory evacuations in advance of a gathering storm? It's a sensitive topic. Communities and businesses are still recovering from the hurricane and mourning the dead. But officials running evacuations are like any CEO trying to execute a strategy. Would some form of incentive to evacuate—perhaps a punitive one—have helped authorities get even more people out safely and reduced the need to put rescuers in harm's way? This is a fascinating question I had not considered before. The full article is at the Wall Street Journal . 

USA Today's  new article about the Sandy Assessment mess was just brought to my attention. It is available here . It is unfortunate the spokeswoman for NOAA choses to state things that are not true: "Never set in stone"? Facts: I can provide the email approving the team, the team's charter, and even the accounting codes we were given for expense reimbursement! The team was approved and we had begun work. I don't understand NOAA's behavior throughout this unfortunate incident and why they have decided to raise even more questions by stating things that are not true.

On Friday, November 2, I posted the following: This evening, I'm posting the very same headline because the National Weather Service has decided to investigate itself. As readers of this blog know, a few days later, I was asked to co-lead the National Weather Service's Sandy Assessment (SA): Then, to everyone's shock, the SA was terminated three days later. Today, the NWS did what I feared: Announced a new service assessment with no one outside of government as participants. NOAA Statement of 11/29/12: NOAA will proceed with an assessment of National Weather Service products and services during Sandy as it often does after damaging or deadly weather events. The new assessment team will soon form and focus on reviewing the policies underlying weather watches and warnings, and storm surge-related products. The team's report will identify best practices, provide recommendations for service improvements, and include a suggested implementation plan. The proposed...

Variations in space weather have the potential to disrupt the electric power grid, telecommunications and Global Positioning Systems — virtually all public infrastructure. To predict such disruptions, a comprehensive space weather forecasting system could cost between $1 billion and $2 billion during the next decade, space scientists told members of the House Space, Science and Technology Committee on Wednesday. Costs would include replacing the  Advanced Composition Explorer satellite , which provides data for geomagnetic storm warnings issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, which has operated 13 years beyond its two-year design life, Laura Furgione, acting director of the National Weather Service, told the committee’s panel on space and aeronautics. Details here . The U.S. has been overspending on global warming research and not spending nearly enough the weather forecasting and warning infrastructure, seasonal to ...

From the World Headquarters of Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC I recently appeared on Anthony Watts' WUWT-TV to discuss the alleged connection between global warming and worsening severe weather. This was taped during the brief period when the NWS Hurricane Sandy Assessment was spinning up. As you know from other postings on this blog, the assessment was terminated five days later. If you'd like to watch, just click below:

Earlier, I posted Dr. Ryan Maue's data that shows no upward trend in hurricanes since the late 1970's (when the weather satellite era began). Here is similar data from NOAA's Dr. Chris Landsea: There is absolutely no trend, up or down, in hurricane strength since 1900, in spite of pro-global warming advocates' assertions otherwise. Hat tip: Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr.

Yes, there is. The Kindle and Nook versions have about a dozen extra color photos that do not appear at all in the hardcover edition. Otherwise, the hardcover and ebooks are the same. Regardless of which version you have, go to:  http://www.warningsbook.com   and follow the instructions to unlock exclusive video and other content. An exclusive for Warnings ' readers.

Now, it is shipping on the Mississippi River .

At issue was the non-traditional way the NWS shared forecast information in advance of the storm’s landfall. Because of the unique meteorological characteristics of Sandy -- a hurricane that was merging with a nor’easter -- prior to landfall, the National Weather Service chose not to issue standard hurricane watches and warnings. Instead, a phalanx of non-tropical “high wind warnings”, “coastal flood warnings”, and various local statements were issued by the decentralized regional NWS offices. This decision contrasted with the run up to Hurricane Irene, when the top-down National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued official hurricane warnings from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Bryan Norcross, the Weather Channel’s hurricane expert, was  sharply critical  of the decision not to issue hurricane watches and warnings, asserting NHC’s adherence to “arcane and inflexible rules” compromised clear, effective communication. “When all hell is breaking loose, sometimes you’ve got to...

“I am deeply concerned by the termination of the NWS Sandy Service Assessment Team,”  Chairman Broun said . “Not only does the Subcommittee want to know why the team was disbanded and when a new assessment will be initiated, we want to be assured that the future assessment will be truly independent and have access to all necessary information and staff.”   Above is an excerpt of a letter from the U.S. House to the Administrator of NOAA. This came to my attention during the last few minutes. The full letter can be viewed here .

AccuWeather has details . These are just the five-day forecast amounts. An additional 3-5" is likely on days 6 to 10. Prepare accordingly! There will also be air travel delays as this event unfolds. At the moment, average delays at San Francisco International are more than three hours!

Mamma Mia! Addition: According to The Washington Post  the tornado, which occurred earlier today, injured at least 20 and struck a steel factory. Update II: (ANSA) - Taranto, November 28 - A worker is missing after the crane he was operating was blown into the sea when a tornado hit the troubled ILVA steel plant in Taranto, fire brigade sources said Wednesday. Scuba-diver teams are reportedly on their way to Taranto to search for the worker as bad weather added to the plant's woes, with winds causing a tower and a building at the facility to collapse and a lightning bolt knocking down a chimney.

Drowning was #1. The full story is here .

Look out Northern California and southwest Oregon. There not only is ten inches of rain possible the next five days, an additional ten inches may fall in the ten days after that. Unfortunately, flood watches only extend to a very small portion of the threatened area at this time. Green = flood watch. ADDITION 10:19pm CST: From Dr. Ryan Maue via Twitter: California storm will be historical for rain totals. 

Hundreds of New York City landlords whose apartment buildings remain without heat or power after Sandy are being warned to get repairs lined up promptly as cold weather looms. As predicted, there will be Sandy victims without power at the one month mark and beyond . Snow fell in NYC earlier today and the situation will only worsen as winter settles in. There is still a great need for contributions to reputable charities. It will be many months before things begin to get back to normal.

As you know, I was to co-chair the official assessment of the National Weather Service's performance during Hurricane Sandy. That assessment was terminated  in an unprecedented manner by the NWS about a week after it began. A couple of items on that topic were brought to my attention today and I wanted to present them to you. The first is from The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Bryan Norcross: There's no doubt in my mind that Mike Smith and the National Weather Service team would have made a detailed and accurate assessment of the questionable decisions - which I and others have roundly criticized - involving NHC advisories and the bulletins issued by local offices within the NWS's Eastern Region. But the fact is, the communications problems in Sandy reached to New York City, Trenton, Albany, and beyond.  Hopefully the rethinking of the process will mean a more extensive and far-reaching analysis so we can fully learn the lessons from Sandy... as opposed to obs...

AccuWeather regional radar at 11am EDT shows the small winter storm we've been talking about the last couple of days more or less on target. The Philadelphia airport has 45 minute average delays and Newark more than an hour. Other airports in the region have, at most, minor delays.

After a dry week, the drought has worsened in many areas and, unfortunately, the next five days look dry where rain (or snow) is needed the most. click to enlarge

South of the Ohio River it is rain and lightning, to the north it is light snow. You can see forecast accumulations here . And, over Texas and Louisiana, thunderstorms are developing (6:45pm CST).

For your convenience: Warnings  hardcover click here . Warnings Kindle, click here . Warnings  Nook, click here . 'Warnings' is higly educational, but it reads nothing like a textbook. The writing is engaging and entertaining from cover to cover. Even if you're not yet convinced to buy it for yourself, if you know anyone with an interest in the weather, get it for them as a gift. If you're lucky, they'll let you read it when they're done. Sirens  softcover, click here . Sirens  Kindle, click here . Sirens  Nook, click here . Just like his other book, "Warnings," "Sirens" is a very well written book. Mike Smith tells the story of that awful day in Joplin, Missouri, in May of 2011 and makes you feel like you're a part of the story. While Sirens can pretty much be read on its own, it is a fantastic sequel to "Warnings."

AccuWeather regional radar shows light snow over Nebraska that will move east and enlarge later today bringing accumulating snows tonight and tomorrow. AccuWeather has complete details on this developing storm . Some good news is that, while there is a threat for some thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds later today, the situation is looking less serious that it did yesterday.

The best evidence says "no." Anthony Watts aggregates the best evidence on the subject.

Weekday PATH service will resume in Lower Manhattan for the first time since superstorm Sandy at 5 a.m. Monday, the governors of New York and New Jersey said.  Full story from the Wall Street Journal. The recovery from Sandy still has a long way to go. But, it is good to see this step after the underground railroads' stations were flooded.

While weather science generally does a great job forecasting tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, people have to be tuned in enough to know to pay attention. So, in that spirit, I want to point out the possibility of some localized tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (i.e., large hail and damaging winds) in parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana tomorrow afternoon and evening. And, via Dr. Ryan Maue, is the forecast radar for 5pm CST Monday evening. Do not focus on exact locations. I'll post on this threat again tomorrow. 

Ever want to live in or own a castle? One is now for sale along the Arkansas River in Wichita. It is currently operated as a boutique inn and Kathleen and I have stayed there. It is wonderful. So, if you've ever wanted to own a castle, this may be your chance. Full details here . View from on top of the "Castle"

AccuWeather is forecasting accumulating snow early in the week. Details here .

Ford is running a commercial for the 2013 Fusion that shows it flying majestically off a cliff. As the car was flying, I thought I saw something odd flash across the screen. So, I rewound it and found this piece of obvious information: Wonder how much the lawyer charged them for that disclaimer?

The Long Island Power Authority continues to send out bills for the full amount as if the outages and power interruptions had never occurred! In the Breezy Point area of NYC, homes were looted while storm victims were at Thanksgiving dinners. Details here . These are outrages. Where are the police? The LIPA can't figure out how much power it (didn't) deliver? This has become "Katrina on the East River" as Glenn Reynolds calls it.

Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. Here are the probabilities of 1" or more of accumulating snow from 6pm Central time this evening to 6pm Central time Sunday evening. Below are the probabilities of 4" or more of accumulation. The only area with significant probabilities is in northwest Wyoming.

Lots of amateur meteorologists ask me the best way to measure snow. A group short, informative training videos is here .

According to the Dallas Morning News, Larry Hagman has passed away . The real life Mr. Hagman had a minor role in my book Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.  You can read more about it here . Our condolences to Mr. Hagman's family, friends, and fans.

Damaging winds with a little hail possible. The storm is drifting SSE and includes Pearl Harbor, Honolulu Intl. Airport and the west part of the City of Honolulu. Update at 7:31pm CST:  The severe thunderstorm warning has expired but a flood advisory remains in effect. Snow fell on the summit of Mauna Kea (Maui) Thursday morning and the summit road was closed this morning. CORRECTION: I know better. Mauna Kea is on the Island of Hawaii.

I was asked to recommend some weather books as Christmas gifts to give to people who have already read Warnings  and Sirens.  Happy to do so: Isaac's Storm   is the story of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane -- the deadliest storm in the history of the United States. It is a compelling, gripping book that has a 5-star rating at Amazon. Eric Sloane's Weather Book   is a great introduction to weather. It is very well illustrated. While I strongly recommend it as a "weather 101" book, you do need to know that the chapter about tornadoes is completely out of date. Weather is the the first book I ever read about weather (second grade). The authors have done an admirable job updating it every few years. This would be a great book to give to a young person with an interest in weather. ORIGINAL POSTING BELOW: Have someone who is interested in weather on your Christmas list or someone who enjoys a great history book? I'd like to immodestly suggest you consider Warni...

With Hurricane Sandy and subsequent events, I haven't written about the TSA lately. Even given what seems to have been poor execution of the threat messaging, the National Weather Service's forecasts were exceptionally good on a difficult to forecast storm. Yet, the NWS does not have the dollars it needs to insure that the meteorological infrastructure remains intact. If there is a federal agency that pays for itself, it is the NWS. Then, there is the TSA. So we are clear, there is a genuine threat to airline safety from both terrorists and random nuts. Yes, we need airline security.  But nude machines? No. Stripping 17-year old girls nude in public ? No. So no one can claim the TSA isn't up on things, you'll be happy to know the TSA has new holiday 2012 regulations for snow globes : The Transportation Security Administration earlier this month  released updated guidelines for the millions of travelers expected to fly this holiday season. Included among th...

No huge problems are in sight for the return home Sunday. Here are the predicted temperatures: click to enlarge And, here are the probabilities of two inches or more of accumulating snow between 6pm Friday and 6pm Sunday, Central time.

From Mindy and me, we hope you and yours have a wonderful Thanksgiving. We in America have a great deal to be thankful for.

Many of the photos you see on the blog are taken with my Nikon camera and they send me stuff. This morning, I received this email above which connects the recent ice melts at the north pole to "climate change." Well, kind of. Look closely at the photo, including the shady area at upper left. The ice is filthy.  Why is that matter? Virgin ice bounces most of the energy back. Soot absorbs the sun's energy and accelerates the melting. Here is an example below. To duplicate this effect, in December 2009, I spread two rows of fireplace soot on the snow in my backward. We started the morning with seven inches of snow on the ground. Only two inches melted in the pure snow. Four and a half inches melted in the dirty areas. Where does the soot come from? Some papers suggest it is from China which can be seen in this photo. Yes, there is a correlation between burning carbon fuels and soot. But, they are two different issues.