Joplin's Curious Post-Storm Behavior
In When the Sirens Were Silent I talk about what I believe was the flawed siren activation strategy in place in Joplin during and before the May 22, 2011, F-5 tornado that contributed to so many unnecessary deaths.
Since the tornado, Joplin has, in my opinion, made the situation worse by increasing the number of situations in which sirens are sounded. We know that too many false alarms make people less likely to take appropriate action to protect themselves.
Friday, Joplin officials decided to sound the sirens for high winds generated by a thunderstorm, consistent with their long-standing policy. That drew this reaction, posted on Facebook, from a television meteorologist at KOAM TV, the CBS station that serves the Joplin market:
Since the tornado, Joplin has, in my opinion, made the situation worse by increasing the number of situations in which sirens are sounded. We know that too many false alarms make people less likely to take appropriate action to protect themselves.
According to the City of Joplin’s website and the Jasper County EMA, the sirens are sounded if: a tornado warning is out for Jasper, Newton or Cherokee counties or if a trained weather spotter reports a funnel or tornado in Jasper county or Joplin. ALSO, the Jasper County EMA sounds the sirens when storms capable of 75 mph winds are approaching the county and the city of Joplin.
Personally, I don’t agree with sounding the sirens during storms that are capable of 75 mph winds if everyone is accustomed to them hearing the sirens during a tornado warning. I come from the St. Louis area where the sirens are sounded only for tornado warnings and that’s it. I also disagree with sounding the sirens just for a severe thunderstorm because of the reaction on our Facebook pages. After the EF5 tornado last year, people are still on edge and they started to get a little panicked until we got on the air to assure you all that we were not seeing anything that would lead to a tornado. This is also a bit of a problem if you live in a different county because different areas have different policies in regards to when the storm sirens should be sounded. I think the criteria should be simplified to sounding the sirens for tornado warnings because that’s when sirens usually sound and that’s usually when anyone caught outside takes notice. Again, that’s just my opinion on the subject…
He takes the very reasonable position that activating sirens for high winds is not a good idea. I agree completely. Yet, come Monday morning, here was his apology:
Since publishing Sirens, I have learned that Joplin officials do not take kindly to anyone criticizing their judgment when it comes to activating sirens.
Their new (adopted in 2012) policy, correctly stated above, says they will sound the sirens if a tornado warning is issued for Cherokee County in Kansas. This will worsen their already bad false alarm problem.
Suppose there is a tornado near Oswego, Kansas (left side of map). The NWS will issue a tornado warning for Cherokee Co. immediately to the east. But, if the storm is moving east at the typical 30 mph, it will be an hour an a half before it reaches Joplin! In that time, it will (statistically) likely lift, meaning yet another false alarm. Even if it stays on the ground all that time, research indicates that people will not stay in their basements that long. So, they risk people coming out of shelter prematurely and exposing themselves to danger.
Of course, the citizens of Joplin and their officials are free to set up any warning system they wish. But, their strategy of gross siren overwarning seems more designed to deflect criticism in case a future tornado occurs rather than protecting the public.
"After the EF5 tornado last year, people are still on edge and they started to get a little panicked"
ReplyDeleteConsidering what they have been through, I don't blame them. I still get on edge 6 years after a tornado that was only an F2 and didn't kill or injure anyone went through my town. I can only imagine how the people of Joplin -- including those who had babies ripped from their arms, saw loved ones and neighbors die, suffered terrible injuries, lost everything they had including their homes, schools, churches, workplaces, etc. -- must feel when they hear the sirens.
Unnecessary siren activation anywhere is unwise, but to do it in Joplin almost seems like rubbing salt in their wounds (physical and emotional).
Elaine
Mike, we see eye to eye here. This problem is getting worse, Springfield also sounds for SVRs and now Branson too (personal experience Friday).
ReplyDeleteJames Aydelott
Tulsa
Thanks, James.
ReplyDeleteReaders: James is a meteorologist who has worked in Dallas, Wichita and now Tulsa.
Here is the text of the warning the EM received:
ReplyDeleteTHIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.
HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 80 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO
INDICATING WINDS TO 80 MPH ALONG THIS LINE.
IMPACT...LARGE TREE BRANCHES MAY BE BROKEN...POSSIBLY BLOCKING ROADS
AND DOWNING POWER LINES. SUBSTANTIAL ROOF COVERING DAMAGE
LIKELY. METAL OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED. SIGNIFICANT FLYING
DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.
Now how can you look at that and say "Well the 80mph winds are only straightline, so we aren't going to sound the sirens. But if it was a EF0 tornado with 60mph winds, we will." That makes no sense... Sounding them for 80mph winds is appropriate. Those are more than just "high winds" and with a measured 70mph report and estimated 80mph wind with barns deroofed, I think valid.
Forgot to add that 75mph is in the "best practices" document developed by the WAS*IS team over the last year: http://skywatch.org/ows.pdf
ReplyDeleteReaders: Rob is an emergency manager.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
Thanks for the comments. I disagree but that is fine. The level of threat from an F4 or F5 is in an entirely different realm than a gust to 75 mph. I think sirens should be reserved for tornado threats.
RE: Joplin. Keep in mind this is the same jurisdiction that did NOT sound the sirens when the tornado warning was issued for the City of Joplin on May 22, 2011. As the 2011 Joplin tornado was moving into the western part of the city, they sounded the sirens then TURNED THEM OFF. The sirens were silent as the tornado made its way across the city.
From where I sit, when a major tornado is threatening a city the sirens should be wailing continuously as they did in Greensburg.
Sounding sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings but not for tornado warnings makes zero sense.
I absolutely agree that Joplin's siren policy is NOT the one we want to hold up as a standard. And if someday there is an ability to know ahead of time if the tornado is going to be an EF4 versus EF1 then maybe we hold off sirens for the low end. But right now, I think we can all agree we don't know (cue Impact Based Warning discussion now ;) )
DeleteSo if they are going to be activated for an EF0 with 65mph winds, why would you not also activate them for a derecho with 100mph winds? I'd venture to say that the derecho's damage will be considerably worse...
Your point about a derecho with 100 mph winds is well-taken. But, derechoes often spawn tornadoes so I have no problem with activation in that case.
DeleteThe threat level from a 65 mph gust -- other than to illegally untied mobile homes -- whether from a tornado or straight wind is so low that I don't want sirens on regardless of cause. But, we don't have a perfect science. So, to keep "siren fatigue" from setting it, I'd like to make sure we sound them for tornadoes but waive sounding them except in derecho situations.
Until we can pick up the difference between a 60mph tornado and a 100mph tornado, I think that's just the nature of the beast. I stand with the 75+mph criteria we developed as a best practice.
DeleteAnd so we're on the same page - we aren't talking "Joplin" proper since they were never under any of the extreme SVR warnings. The sirens in Joplin should not have ever been activated during any of this. The warning only included a very small slice of southeast Jasper county, so Joplin shouldn't have heard a thing. Is that what happened?
Sirens went off in Joplin.
DeleteAhh... Totally different story. My fault for assuming otherwise!
DeleteStupid.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteOne other point: the NWS should not be telling Joplin that "80 mph" is a "tornado-like" wind speed. Yes, it is a lower F1 but its effects will be NOTHING like the tornado in 2011.
I'm told the meteorologist's original comments received overwhelming support from his viewers and they wish he had not apologized. I think the citizens of the area are more sensible than their local officials.