Storm Isaac

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Satellite image from 6:30pm CDT, click to enlarge
The tropical system in the Atlantic was named Isaac this afternoon. It is moving slowly west northwest. I have created a very preliminary threat outlook map below. The threat area pertains to the center of the storm, not its eventual wind distribution. I am not offering an opinion as to the intensity of the storm at this point. 

 OK, what do you do if you have a trip to Florida or the Southeast? I just checked and none of the major airlines have issued storm "waivers" yet. Waivers allow people with restricted tickets to get a refund or switch the dates of travel. Please check your airline's web site for the waivers (which often appear under "travel info"). For a primer on dealing with airlines in a storm situation, here is my Airline Crisis Survival Guide.

ADDITION: 9:50pm.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ADDITION: 9:45pm. Here is a link to the radar on the Windward Islands if you would like to watch the storm cross overnight and Wednesday morning.

Comments

  1. UnknownAugust 21, 2012 at 7:56 PM

    As I love your posts.. Where does one begin to draw the line between useful weather information / making people less ignorant of a storm. Vs. hyping a storm to death saying this COULD be the big one or hyping the 905mb model run from this morning. I am all for forecasting accuracy and informing the public of weather dangers and risks, have we become so accustomed now to hype and long range forecasts that if someone does not say anything, then we are not providing a public service. To me, correct me of I am wrong - I was 13 and 16 during Hugo And Andrew and I just recall a patient attitude with both of these hurricanes and even that Sat before Andrew there was a lot of calm watching it move along the 25N lat and we knew S FL was in a direct path.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithAugust 21, 2012 at 8:32 PM

    Hi Bryan,

    You are correct that the forecasts in Hugo and Andrew (the latter is discussed extensively in my book, "Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather") were less explicit until a day or two before those storms.

    However, tremendous progress in modeling and -- just as important -- the observational input into the models has occurred in the two decades since Andrew.

    You'll note that I have not made any intensity forecast whatsoever and have been trying to damp down the hype.

    That said, I believe the model forecasts pertaining to Isaac have been sufficiently consistent that I have enough confidence to outline where the storm my go.

    I will go back and review this forecast along with the wheat belt rain forecasts after the fact.

    ReplyDelete

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