Friendly Competition: NWS versus Yours Truly

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Apparently, the National Weather Service says "flooding rains" for Wichita as a result of Isaac. I don't think we'll see any appreciable rain. Climatological experience shows that hurricanes that develop in the Atlantic rarely produce significant effects this far northwest.

So, to Chance Hayes, the NWS meteorologist quoted, to make it interesting I'll buy you dinner at next month's Wichita AMS Chapter Meeting if we have an inch of rain or more. You'll buy my dinner if we have .99" or less at Mid-Continent Airport (their official observing station).

Actually, I'd be surprised if we had even 0.2 inches.

Deal?

Addition 9:40pm. Even Kathleen, my wife, is not thrilled with this post and she and the other two commenters (one below, one Twitter) have a point. I should have written this more clearly.  My concern is over this statement (red link above):

“Keep an eye out,” Hayes said.
When we meteorologists advise the public to do something there needs to be a reasonably high level of confidence. I didn't, and don't, believe the odds of flooding rains for Wichita rise to the level of issuing a cautionary message of any kind.

That said, it is was a possibility raised and it was/is not the official forecast of the entire NWS. 

Kathleen suggested I take the posting down but I don't do that because I want my body of work, warts and all, to be out there for people to evaluate for themselves. I apologize that I gave the impression this was the official NWS forecast and I appreciate people pointing out my unclear writing. 

So, Chance, I apologize and dinner is on me!!

Comments

  1. JoeAugust 27, 2012 at 8:54 PM

    Sorry, Mike, but I think you're really taking this brief quote out of context.

    The full quote: "One forecasting model has the storm pushing up into eastern Kansas, bringing potentially flooding rains to the Wichita area, said Chance Hayes, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Wichita. Another has the rains missing Kansas but reaching Kansas City."

    One model says its possible, and another said its not. The meteorologist was communicating the uncertainty at the time, not making a forecast. The official NWS forecast has no significant chance of precip for the next 7 days: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.68888889999999&lon=-97.33611109999998&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wichita%2C%20KS%2C%20USA

    Not exactly a fair deal, in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Mike SmithAugust 27, 2012 at 9:01 PM

    What am I taking out of context?

    It says "potentially flooding rains to the Wichita area." My proposed bet is only for 1" or more which isn't close to producing flooding, so I'm giving the NWS an advantage. And, I'm letting them be the judge.

    What isn't fair about that?

    ReplyDelete
  3. BillAugust 27, 2012 at 9:46 PM

    Because he said "one model", not his forecast, but a model forecasted possibility. You of all people should know that the models present a myriad of choices.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mike SmithAugust 27, 2012 at 9:52 PM

    Bill,
    Thanks for the comment. I think you may have been posting your comment when I posted by clarification and apology.
    Mike

    ReplyDelete

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