Central Plains: Differing Models
While others are talking about the still nonexistent hurricane (or, for that matter, tropical storm or, for that matter, tropical depression -- it is still just a clump of clouds) let's talk about something that is unquestionably significant to food prices and that is the prospect for rain the the winter wheat belt.
Between now and Sunday night, the European model shows substantial rain falling, especially in Kansas.
The U.S. Global Forecast Model also shows rain but lesser amounts and farther north.
Why is this unquestionably significant? Because September and early October are when the 2013 winter wheat crop gets planted in this region. The seed needs sufficient moisture to sprout before it goes dormant prior to winter.
Which model am I betting on? The European.
Between now and Sunday night, the European model shows substantial rain falling, especially in Kansas.
The U.S. Global Forecast Model also shows rain but lesser amounts and farther north.
Why is this unquestionably significant? Because September and early October are when the 2013 winter wheat crop gets planted in this region. The seed needs sufficient moisture to sprout before it goes dormant prior to winter.
Which model am I betting on? The European.
How much of that bet is based on wishful thinking? I hope you are right though. I'm in the Wichita area too.
ReplyDeleteSteve, good question. The European is considered the single best meteorological forecast model in the world. It seems to work well in situations like these.
ReplyDeleteOOOOhhhh Mike you have made my entire day with this post, I like your bet. Interestingly enough I actually DREAMED about looking at a map that had Kansas with significant rain. "Wishful thinking" and dreams are made up of Consciousness, which unquestionably affects reality so here's to dreaming and wishes and rain dances and anything else that will *help* to bring water to our thirsty ground.
ReplyDelete-Candace