How is the Heavy Rain Forecast Working Out?

By -

As this is a very slow-moving storm, the rains are not over yet. Here are the forecast rains for the next 48 hours:


[caption id="attachment_7925" align="aligncenter" width="310" caption="Rainfall from now until 7am CDT Friday"][/caption]

However, I thought it would be worthwhile to see how the heavy rain forecasts, issued on this blog last week, have worked out so far.


My first posting on this storm was six days ago on March 15. I posted two maps, the National Weather Service's forecast rainfall amounts as well as the European model's forecast. That posting was titled "No Flooding? Pass the Salt, Please" because of a story that ran in a number of newspapers that day forecasting a low chance of spring flooding while this heavy rainstorm loomed.  Click on the link to see those forecasts.


Now, here is the 4-day rainfall amounts for the period ending at 7 o'clock this morning. 


[caption id="attachment_7926" align="aligncenter" width="617" caption="Rain gauge and radar high-resolution rainfall estimate for the 96 hours at 7am this morning."][/caption]

I think you'll agree that, considering it was four days before the start of the storm, the forecast was good. The next forecast, posted March 17, was excellent (see below).


[caption id="attachment_7927" align="aligncenter" width="302" caption="Rainfall forecast posted the morning of March 17 on this blog."][/caption]

While certainly not perfect, weather science continues to make major strides in our ability to forecast all types of storms.  

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The East Coast Severe Weather Threat is Over

By -
Image
Midnight: The East Coast Threat for Tornadoes and Severe  Thunderstorms Has Ended 3:50pm. Tornado watch for the Middle Atlantic Region. 2:30pm Tornadoes are also forecast in the South. 2:20pm. A couple of tornadoes, hail and wind gusts to 65 mph are possible with these storms. This includes NYC and Philadelphia.  1:05pm. The tornado risk has been extended northward into New York. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. Remember: if a tornado warning is issued, go to your basement and get under heavy furniture like a pool table. Of, if your basement is finished, get into the bathroom. Go ahead an put a couple of water bottles and, if appropriate, diapers in your shelter area. Wear shoes.  If you don't have a basement or safe room, go to the lowest floor and get into a bath or closet in the middle of your home. Children should be put in the bathtub.  I'll update later today. 
Read more

Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - 9:30pm

By -
Image
After 65 mph winds went through Wichita, we have been without power for 35 minutes. So, I am going to have to end coverage for the night (using backup systems to write this). Scroll down for the forecast of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms for Sunday and Sunday night.  Please read down for the latest forecasts regarding this dangerous tornado and damaging wind situation! 5:40pm, a new "regular" tornado watch has been issued for north central Kansas.  Note that wind gusts to 80 mph are likely in this storm in addition to tornadoes and giant hail. Please make sure friends and relatives in the area are aware of the danger in the area outlined in red below plus the red area outlined at 2:50pm  In addition to "several strong tornadoes," hail to 4.8" in diameter is forecast along with wind gusts to 80 mph. Now is the time for persons living in mobile homes, manufactured homes and those with mobility issues should be making plans!!  Do not wait until a tornado warn
Read more

Updated Freezing Rain and Heavy Rain Forecast

By -
Image
Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue is 0.1 to .25 inc
Read more